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Application of (geo)demographic methods in education
Šebestík, Libor ; Hulíková Tesárková, Klára (advisor) ; Fialová, Ludmila (referee)
Application of (geo)demographic methods in education Abstract This master's thesis presents the possibilities of application of demographic, geodemographic and statistical methods on data published by the educational sector. The methods of demographic analysis are represented by the usage of rates, the concept of multistate demography (Markov chains) and the application of life tables. The enrollment ratio at particular levels of education, the average length of schooling and the number of dropouts from school grades are evaluated by these procedures. Markov chains which are based on the probabilities of transition between grades are also examined in terms of their use for forecasting purposes. These methods analyze the situation at the preschool, primary and secondary levels and are used on data from the annual Statistical Yearbooks on Education. In the field of geodemography, the so called preferential model of migration flows is presented. This model examines how applicants for tertiary education prefer or reject the regions of the Czech Republic for their tertiary education studies. The last method is the binary logistic regression which analyzes the inequalities in access to tertiary education. Both preferential model and logistic regression are based on data files on the admission process at...
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Impact of commercial urban sprawl on soil cover on the outskirts of Prague and its future predictions
Havel, Petr ; Chuman, Tomáš (advisor) ; Romportl, Dušan (referee)
The urban sprawl cannot be any longer perceived as a solely esthetic and socioeconomic problem. The process of shift of population and activities from city centre to its fringe has significant environmental impacts as well. Typicaly, suburban areas are spatially and therefore energetically demanding, the landscape is being fragmented by their presence and the natural environment of organisms is severely modified or destroyed. Soil sealing and impervious surfaces lead to altered heat and moist regimes, infiltration rate and runoff. Soils at city fringe - usually very productive and valuable - are endangered by total loss of all of their functions, both environmental and agricultural. That is also the case of Prague surroundings, where high quality soils, which are supposed to be protected by the law, are irreversibly degraded by urban sprawl. Logistic regression model in this work has proved that commercial urban sprawl tends to occur in areas with a good logistic position and a level terrain. The awareness of factors, which are favorable for urban sprawl, can be utilized in future to make local planning more effective and prevent sealing of high-quality agricultural soils, which are currently built on. By sprawling on an agricultural land, Czech Republic loses its natural wealth and valuable...
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Regression goodness-of-fit criteria according to dependent variable type
Šimsa, Filip ; Hanzák, Tomáš (advisor) ; Hlubinka, Daniel (referee)
This work is devoted to the description of linear, logistic, ordinal and multinominal regression models and interpretation of its parameters. Then it introduces a variety of quality indicators of mathematical models and the re- lations between them. It focuses mainly on the Gini coefficient and the coefficient of determination R2 . The first mentioned is established by modifying the Lorenz curve for ordinal and continuous variables and by comparing the estimated proba- bilities for nominal variable. The coefficient of determination R2 is newly defined for the nominal variable and is examined its relationship with Gini coefficient. As- suming normally distributed scores and errors of the model is numerically derived the relation between the Gini coefficient and the coefficient of determiantion for different distribution of continuous dependent variable. Theoretical calculations and definitions are illustrated on two real data sets. 1
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Forecasting Ability of Confidence Indicators: Evidence for the Czech Republic
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic. The predictive power of both the business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn defined as a discrete event using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation and to anticipate economic downturn one quarter ahead. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on a model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. This result was indirectly confirmed by OECD as the Czech customer confidence indicator has been included as a new component in the OECD domestic composite leading indicator since April 2012.
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Comparison of logistic regression and decision trees
Raadová, Zuzana ; Voříšek, Jan (advisor) ; Komárek, Arnošt (referee)
In this thesis we describe a classification of the binary data. For discussing this problem we use two well-known methods - logistic regression and decision trees. These methods deal with the problem in different way, so our aim is to compare a successfulness of their predictions. At first a model of logistic regression is introduced and we show how to estimate its parameters using a method of maximum likelihood. Then we describe decision trees as one of the most popular classification tools. There are discussed older classic algorithms CART and C4.5 and also two new algorithms GUEST and CRUISE. The predictions of both of the methods are shown on a real data example.
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Ethnic groups in the former Soviet Union space
Tkáčová, Kateřina ; Plechanovová, Běla (advisor) ; Střítecký, Vít (referee)
The topic of this diploma thesis is ethnic groups in the space of the former Soviet Union in the time period 1994-2006 and their involvement in ethnic conflicts. The aim of this thesis is to identify key parameters driving these ethnic groups towards armed conflict as a response to their needs, interests and living conditions. Key assumptions of this thesis are derived from qauntitative as well as qualitative studies. Important characteristics of ethnic groups are also included in the analysis of possible causes of ethnic conflicts. The theoretical discussion shows three main factors which can make ethnic groups more prone to conflict: permanent exclusion, strong identity and lastly dissimilarity of an ethnic group. Influence of these factors is tested using descriptive statistics, odds ratio, correlation and logistic regression. Statistical results shows that strong identity as well as discrimination of ethnic groups increase the probability of ethnic conflicts.
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Late matherhood from demographic point of view (example of The Czech and Slovak Republic)
Vobořilová, Michaela ; Fialová, Ludmila (advisor) ; Bartoňová, Dagmar (referee)
Late Motherhood from Demographic Point of View (Example of the Czech and Slovak Republic) Abstract The thesis thematically refers the issue of late motherhood in the Czech and Slovak Republics from the twenties of the twentieth century to the present from a demographic point of view. It describes the changes that have occurred during the observed years as to fertility of women aged over 35, using selected demographic indicators. In the second part the focus lies on the analysis of selected demographic factors using binary logistic regression. In the very end, the form of late motherhood is discussed. According to the results of the analysis are determined three different types of late motherhood. Keywords: late motherhood, late maternity, fertility, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, logistic regression
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Factors influencing the satisfaction with facilities for PhD studies
Paul, Miroslav ; Vltavská, Kristýna (advisor) ; Milatová, Pavla (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the satisfaction of PhD students with facilities for the study by means of data gained from DOKTORANDI 2014 survey. The aim of the thesis is to identify factors that influence the satisfaction with facilities for PhD studies and finding similarities among different fields of studies according to satisfaction with facilities. The first part of this thesis contains a description of higher education with a focus on PhD programs and a description of statistical methods that are subsequently used in analytical part and a description of DOKTORANDI 2014 survey. The analytical part aims to answer the questions which factors affect the PhD students´ satisfaction with facilities for study using logistic regression and decision trees. Further it tries to determine the satisfaction similarities of PhD study fields with facilities for studying using cluster analysis.
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Employability of graduates of the University of Economics, Prague and their quality assessment of acquired higher education
Dejl, Lukáš ; Vltavská, Kristýna (advisor) ; Hulík, Vladimír (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the employability of graduates of the University of Economics, Prague (UE) and their quality assessment of acquired higher education based on REFLEX 2013 survey. The first part of this thesis is focused on theoretical concepts and statistical methods that are subsequently used in analytical part. The analytical part contains analysis of UE graduates employability and the quality assessment of acquired higher education. The aim of this diploma thesis is to provide answers on whether there is a relationship between studied faculty and job classification or which factors affect the monthly wage level using the multidimensional statistical methods. The thesis also deals with the graduates evaluation of acquired knowledge applicability and practical usability in future career.
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Building credit scoring models using selected statistical methods in R
Jánoš, Andrej ; Bašta, Milan (advisor) ; Pecáková, Iva (referee)
Credit scoring is important and rapidly developing discipline. The aim of this thesis is to describe basic methods used for building and interpretation of the credit scoring models with an example of application of these methods for designing such models using statistical software R. This thesis is organized into five chapters. In chapter one, the term of credit scoring is explained with main examples of its application and motivation for studying this topic. In the next chapters, three in financial practice most often used methods for building credit scoring models are introduced. In chapter two, the most developed one, logistic regression is discussed. The main emphasis is put on the logistic regression model, which is characterized from a mathematical point of view and also various ways to assess the quality of the model are presented. The other two methods presented in this thesis are decision trees and Random forests, these methods are covered by chapters three and four. An important part of this thesis is a detailed application of the described models to a specific data set Default using the R program. The final fifth chapter is a practical demonstration of building credit scoring models, their diagnostics and subsequent evaluation of their applicability in practice using R. The appendices include used R code and also functions developed for testing of the final model and code used through the thesis. The key aspect of the work is to provide enough theoretical knowledge and practical skills for a reader to fully understand the mentioned models and to be able to apply them in practice.
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