|
|
Natural Interest Rate: Is 2% CPI Inflation Still the Right Target?
Scheerová, Lucie ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
This paper uses the semi-structural Laubach and Williams model to estimate the time- varying natural rate of interest by Kalman filter and Maximum Likelihood method, applying it for the first time to Czech data. The results show a significant decrease of the natural interest rate during the past decade, which constitutes further evidence for the wide-spread notion that structural factors in many countries have shifted after the global financial crisis. The paper's contribution is mainly represented by preparing ground for further research. It concludes that the basic version of the Laubach and Williams model is not optimal for the Czech environment and suggests appropriate adjustments to it. It discusses and analyzes sources of potential problems with the estimation, notably the issues of singularity and model specification. Eventually the paper concludes that due to the low significance of results and the uncertainty of gains and losses related to a policy switch, the best reaction of the central bank would be to keep the current regime and inflation target. JEL Classification C32, E43, E52, O40 Keywords natural real interest rate, inflation target, inflation measurement, monetary policy, Kalman filter, trend growth Author's e-mail lucie.scheer@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail tomas.holub@fsv.cuni.cz v
|
|
|
Why and how to assess inflation target fulfilment
Filáček, Jan
The primary aim of this paper is to propose a methodological framework for inflation target fulfilment assessment based on partial simulations, as applied in the Czech National Bank. In order to demonstrate the applicability of this framework writers analyse the performance of the Czech National Bank between 2002 and 2006. They show that a large part of the inflation target misses in this period can be assigned to bias in the variables describing external developments.
Fulltext:  PDF
|
|
|
Theoretical basis of inflation targeting and experiences with its practical use in the Czech Republic
Plachý, Matěj ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Štork, Zbyněk (referee)
This thesis focuses on the monetary policy regime known as inflation targeting. The first part mentions theoretical basis which are ground for this transmission mechanism. New Keynesian model, endogenous money theory and output gap as a conception of inflation are crucial for this theoretical concept. The next part focuses on history of inflation targeting, especially on the situation in the Czech Republic but there are also mentioned other economics, such as Poland, Hungary and Sweden. Analytical part shows some weak parts of inflation targeting which could be connected with its application. Some of them are analyzed on data from the Czech Republic.
|
|
|
Development of the monetary political instruments of the Czech National Bank
Faltysová, Zuzana ; Burgerová, Jiřina (advisor) ; Řežábek, Pavel (referee)
This Bachelor thesis reports the characteristics of the monetary policy, its development, objectives, and above all, the financing instruments which are used by the Czech National Bank. It also scrutinizes the independence and the operations of central banks. It also analyses the development of the monetary policy and monetary political instruments since the split-up of Czechoslovakia till today. It is focused on a comparision of the main objectives which the CNB wanted to achieve, and on the real impacts of the measure exposed.
|
|
|
Inflation targeting in central Europe
Halapin, Miroslav ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Brada, Jaroslav (referee)
The diploma thesis focuses on inflation targeting in central Europe. It describes experience of three central European countries (Czech republic, Poland, Hungary) with inflation targeting. First part of thesis deals with theoretical aspects of inflation targeting. Next part brings closer look at application of inflation targeting in above - mentioned countries. Last part of thesis analyzes efficiency of inflation targeting.
|
guest ::
