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Rationality versus Irrationality in Managerial Decision Making
Daňková, Tereza ; Hiršová, Miloslava (advisor) ; Čejka, Pavel (referee)
The thesis focuses on rationality in decisions by managers. The terms rationality, irrationality and bounded rationality are defined in the first part. The current state of knowledge on the concept of bounded rationality in decision making is then followed by a specific consideration of managerial decision making. The chosen bounded rationality effects, including heuristics, are also described. The purpose of the second part of this study is to examine experimentally the differential uses of heuristics among the students of the Faculty of Management relative to completion of the Managerial Decision Making course. The effect of time to use of heuristics is examined as well.
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Economics of Biased Estimation
Drvoštěp, Tomáš ; Špecián, Petr (advisor) ; Tříska, Dušan (referee)
This thesis investigates optimality of heuristic forecasting. According to Goldstein a Gigerenzer (2009), heuristics can be viewed as predictive models, whose simplicity is exploiting the bias-variance trade-off. Economic agents learning in the context of rational expectations (Marcet a Sargent 1989) employ, on the contrary, complex models of the whole economy. Both of these approaches can be perceived as an optimal response complexity of the prediction task and availability of observations. This work introduces a straightforward extension to the standard model of decision making under uncertainty, where agents utility depends on accuracy of their predictions and where model complexity is moderated by regularization parameter. Results of Monte Carlo simulations reveal that in complicated environments, where few observations are at disposal, it is beneficial to construct simple models resembling heuristics. Unbiased models are preferred in more convenient conditions.
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Travelling salesman problem and method GENIUS
Škopek, Michal ; Pelikán, Jan (advisor) ; Fábry, Jan (referee)
The target of this thesis is to explain the Travelling Salesman Problem and also create a special program, which will be able to make calculations using the heuristics GENIUS. The Travelling Salesman Problem will be described from two different points of view. The first one is the historical description of the idea of the Travelling Salesman Problem and later will be the problem will be described with some of the very wide number of the calculation methods. For the explanation of the methods, in the thesis there has been chosen some of the algorithms which belong to that methods. The heuristics and also the exact algorithms will be explained. The focus of this thesis is on the heuristics called GENIUS and also in the creation of the program which can calculate it. The program works first with the GENI algorithm and after that it works with US post-optimization algorithm. The program will be described from the point of view of the user and the manual will be written as well. The program will be tested on two different examples and will be compared with the exact algorithm.
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Split delivery vehicle routing problem and its application in a company Ltd. Peter Cremer Central Europe
Richter, Miroslav ; Pelikán, Jan (advisor) ; Černohous, Roman (referee)
Split delivery vehicle rating problem is one of the most studied combinatorial optimization problems in operations research. According to the mathematical difficultness, there should be many problems to find the optimal solution. Therefore, there are many exact algorithms and heuristics, which tries to find the best solution in the short period of time. The theoretical part of this thesis describes the basic facts of the split delivery vehicle routing problem and its heuristics. The practical part focuses on the practical usage of the split delivery vehicle routing problem. The main goals of this thesis are the practical usage of this vehicle routing problem and assistance in strategic decision establishing of the secondary store.
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Application of Heuristics on Vehicle Routing Problem
Gerlich, Michal ; Fábry, Jan (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee)
This thesis deals with solving a real case from one specific part of Operations Research -- Discrete Models. The case can be classified as Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) which is a subset of classical Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP). The VRP is modified TSP when requirements of customers and capacities of trucks play role. The data needed for calculations were taken from the real situation of Pivovar Svijany a.s. The problem can be defined as VRP with cars with different capacities and split delivery. Even though the mathematic model of the problem is known and described in the thesis, the size of the problem is too big to be optimized. Therefore heuristic was used to solve it. Because of the good computational results in the past the savings algorithm was chosen. Its model was set using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The thesis (among others) analyses the sensitivity of the output on the values of the factors that can be chosen by the analyst. At the end of the thesis the best found solution is presented and the initial and the new scheme of the circles are compared.
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Heuristics testing for travelling salesman problem
Dítětová, Tereza ; Jablonský, Josef (advisor) ; Fábry, Jan (referee)
The travelling salesman problem is one of the most popular kind of route trip transportation problem. This work empirically compares two chosen heuristics, giving only approximate solution in the TSP, with an optimal solution. Travelling salesman problem is easy to formulate but difficult to solve that is what makes this problem so attractive. The first chapter is focused on the theoretical definition including a historical overview, the second chapter describes selected heuristics methods for solving the TSP. The third chapter contains the results of my computing experiments that were made through an application programmed by me. The results show the nearest neighbour heuristic as more effective than the savings heuristic, both in the computation speed and the closeness to the optimum.
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Cognitive biases in decision making process
Trejbal, Pavel ; Pstružina, Karel (advisor) ; Jirků, Petr (referee)
The focus of this thesis is mainly on the area of human decision making. During the decision process we are subjected to several influences, which bias our judgement. Therefore, we may be misguided towards wrong decisions. In addition, it is important that the display of distorted influence is regularly repeated with the same persons. Thus, we may assume that we are talking about a universal apparatus of the human mind. The aim of this thesis is also to identify the above-mentioned influences, and mainly to understand the nature of their origin. The knowledge resulting from the research could become important and useful tool for the reader, since the knowledge may be used for the improvement of our own decisions in both private and professional life. The research is based on interdisciplinary approaches to cognitive science. On one hand we use the functional model of mind, on the other hand we utilize a wide range of empirical data from several fields, such as psychology, behavioral economics and the sciences concerned with the brain. Using these tools, we analyze specific influences, which are considered to be important from the point of view of decision making. They are for example feelings, emotions, social influences, language, self, experience, expectations and prior forms of judgement. Based on the analysis of the influences, hypotheses about their interconnectedness are deduced. Finally, we suggest several practical methods, which should help us to improve our own decision making and help us to avoid wrong conclusions.
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Optimalizace svozu tříděného odpadu
Kochánková, Věra ; Fábry, Jan (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee)
Cílem diplomové práce je ukázat, jakým způsobem probíhá nejen separace a likvidace tříděného odpadu, ale hlavně systém, jakým probíhá jeho svoz. Na optimalizaci svozu tříděného odpadu je pohlíženo z matematického hlediska. Jsou využity matematické modely a heuristiky, které vedou k vyčíslení trasy, která se bude přibližovat optimální trase sběrných vozů. Za použití reálných dat poskytnutých pražskými svozovými společnostmi je demonstrováno praktické využití optimalizace svozových tras. Součástí diplomové práce je vytvořená aplikace pro výpočet trasy pomocí heuristik.
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