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Halloween efekt na kapitálových trzích
Červený, Petr
The bachelor's thesis focuses on a market anomaly known as the Halloween effect. In order to fully understand this effect, the first part of the thesis explains terms related to the researched topic. Subsequently, the existence of the effect is clarified, where the author of the work relies on the theoretical starting points of scientists who have already investigated the effect in earlier years. The main goal of the bachelor's thesis is to identify the effects of the Halloween effect on different capital markets, namely on the stock, commodity and cryptocurrency markets, based on 2 analyses: ratio analysis of individual periods and regression analysis using the OLS method. Using the obtained calculations, an evaluation of the empirical research is subsequently created, which, together with a recommendation for investors in connection with the influence of the market anomaly called the Halloween effect, represents the conclusion of the bachelor's thesis.
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Evaluation of stock market efficiency and selection of appropriate investment strategy
MALINOVÁ, Adéla
The subject of the thesis is testing the efficiency of the US stock market, determining its degree of efficiency, and recommending an appropriate investment strategy. The tests were applied to stocks of companies operating in the automotive and information technology industries. Data was obtained from online sources available at The Wall Street Journal and Yahoo Finance. The calculations were performed on a five-year period from 2016-2020. Market efficiency was tested using autocorrelation and run tests, the results of which basically confirmed a weak form of efficiency. However, using the alpha factor, the existence of undervalued and overvalued stocks was discovered, suggesting that the market does not behave entirely in line with the weak form of efficiency. A very good predictive ability of the alpha factor was verified, which could be used in an active investment strategy. In the technical analysis, the usefulness of oscillators and moving averages was tested. Above average investment results were recorded for the PROC and RSI oscillators. However, the success of these indicators was not absolute. It was not possible to determine the specifics of the stocks for which technical analysis indicators led to below-average returns, thus the success of technical analysis methods cannot be predicted in advance. Based on the findings, I recommend a passive investment strategy based on fundamental analysis to risk averse investors.
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Capital Market Anomalies
ALEŠ, Petr
This Master thesis deals with the anomalies in capital markets. Through statistical testing of data from five companies on the US stock exchange NASDAQ seeks to prove or disprove their presence on this market.
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Modeling of football matches results and efficient-market hypothesis in sports betting
Augustin, Michael ; Korbel, Václav (advisor) ; Opatrný, Matěj (referee)
01 Abstract Betting on sporting events can be perceived by the general public as a game of chance. In the professional literature, however, betting on football matches is treated in the same way as other financial markets, where in the event of a violation of the theory of efficient markets due to the occurrence of inefficiency, there are opportunities for investors to obtain abnormal returns. The main goal of this work is to create a model capable of predicting the results of football matches on the basis of historical data better than bookmakers are able to do and test the effectiveness of the Czech betting market for football matches of the Czech highest football league. The first part of the thesis contains a more detailed presentation of the theory of efficient markets, a comparison of financial and betting markets and sources of possible inefficiency in betting markets. The second and third parts present data, models and their possible modification to increase the accuracy of estimates. The fourth part describes the results of testing individual models and subsequent simulations of betting strategies. The fifth part contains a conclusion and discussion of the results, including an indication of possible alternatives to follow-up research. The results of simulations of betting strategies confirm...
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Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices
Kubaštová, Magdaléna ; Fičura, Milan (advisor) ; Galuška, Jiří (referee)
This master thesis, Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices deals with macroeconomic variables that drive the price of gold. This paper is divided into three chapters: Possible investment forms in gold, Fundamental analysis of commodities, and lastly Analysis of impact of strong economies and their influence on gold prices. In the first chapter, emphasis is put on the Efficient Market Theory that plays an important role in success or failure of investment strategies such as technical and fundamental analysis. The second chapter illustrates the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and how it is used as a tool to predict the movement of gold prices. This chapter also discusses other large drivers effecting gold prices such as financial and geopolitical stability, inflation, interest rates, Central Banking operations, the value of the US dollar, and other influences. The final chapter analyzes the impact of announced fundamental news in the United States, China, and Europe on the price of gold. The empirical part of this paper analysis the impact of announced fundamental news in United States, China and Europe on gold prices. With the use of the linear regression method, we can test whether the macroeconomic variables significantly influence the return on gold investments immediately after their announcement, or over long periods of time. If this new public data was calculated into gold prices directly, investors would not be able to achieve additional returns by using fundamental analysis. The major findings are summed up at the end of the last chapter.
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Analysis of influence of fundamental news on currency pair movements
Kušnírová, Jana ; Fičura, Milan (advisor) ; Mazáček, David (referee)
The Diploma Thesis deals with influence of announcing economic indicators on currency exchange rate AUD/USD. The Thesis focuses on fundamental news announced in Australia, USA and China, as these play a significant role in forming of analyzed currency exchange rate. The first part includes general description of fundaments, explanation of investor's psychology, description of world's most important banks, because the financial world waits for their announcements and reacts upon them. Next subchapter of thesis focuses on central bank of Australia and its monetary policy. The research itself is situated in the second part of the thesis, containing testing the influence of fundamental news on logarithmic return of exchange rate AUD/USD, using linear regression analysis. The objective of this part is to find out what is the influence of news on exchange rate return of AUD/USD. The last part examines whether investing strategies based on announcing fundamental news can bring profit to the investor or the efficient market theory will be confirmed.
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Comprehensive hedging of stock portfolio
Kábrt, Tomáš ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Houštecký, Martin (referee)
This diploma thesis is devoted to the problem of creating a portfolio of shares. First part is focused on the characterization of shares - classes of shares and rights associated with them. The second chapter compares the Efficient market theory and Behavioral approach, as the two opposing schools of thought. The third chapter gradually introduces fundamental analysis, from the global analysis through the analysis of an industry to the analysis of a particular company. Furthermore, this work focuses on the Value investment approach, that is based on fundamental analysis. On the basis of several criteria are particular stocks selected to the portfolio. The intensity of these criteria is then tested in the relationship with the resulting number of selected stocks. The conclusion of the fourth chapter is devoted to the issue of discounts and premiums that are trying to take into account specific factors of securities, which should be reflected into their prices.
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Speculative bubbles in financial markets
Roček, Jindřich ; Brada, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Kubát, Max (referee)
The bachelor thesis explores the phenomenon of speculative bubbles in financial markets. The aim is to define possible causes of speculative bubbles, and specify circumstances under which they can be prevented. The first chapter explains the essence of the examined phenomenon. In the following chapter, two theoretical approaches to the formation of asset prices in markets are explained, the efficient market theory and behavioral finance. The third chapter analyses causes, coarse and collapse of each individual bubble. The work uses twelve samples of asset price bubbles from history to meet the objectives. The final chapter examines the influence of government intervention and monetary policy on the formation of bubbles and proposes stemming recommendations for the responsible authority. The considerable complexity of the phenomenon and a large number of factors influencing price movements means that bubbles cannot be quantified ex ante. Given the current market conditions it is reasonable to expect further occurence of asset price bubbles in financial markets.
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Financial market anomalies
ŠAFÁŘOVÁ, Michaela
This bachelor thesis is focused on two types of anomalies which occur on financial markets. The theoretical part mainly focuses on the efficient markets theory, and on the topic of behavioural finance which also include individual theories associated with them. Furthermore, theoretical part analyses different kinds of anomalies, focusing primarily on the Monday and the January effect. Analytical part tests both the January and the Monday effects in selected companies, trading with its shares on the Prague Stock Exchange. The influence of the January and the Monday effect wasn´t proved in this bachelor thesis.
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Analysis of calendar effects on the Prague Stock Exchange
Janek, Libor ; Havlíček, David (advisor)
This bachelor thesis is focus on the efficient market theory, the behavioral finance and on the testing of various calendar effects in the capital markets. In the first chapter the efficient market theory is described, followed by the explanation of the behavioral finance in chapter two. In the analytical part, effect of day in week (the Monday effect or week effect), effect day in month and effect month in year (the January effect) are examined on the PX index using data from the Prague Stock Exchange.
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