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Early warning indicators of economic crises: evidence from a panel of 40 developed countries
Babecký, Jan ; Havránek, Tomáš ; Matějů, Jakub ; Rusnák, Marek ; Šmídková, Kateřina ; Vašíček, Bořek
Using a panel of 40 EU and OECD countries for the period 1970–2010 writers construct an early warning system. The system consists of a discrete and a continuous model. In the discrete model, they collect an extensive database of various types of economic crises called CDEC 40-40 and examine potential leading indicators. In the continuous model, they construct an index of real crisis incidence as the response variable.
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