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Project Management and Risks Visualization Support Tool
Přibylová, Kateřina ; Trchalík, Roman (referee) ; Kreslíková, Jitka (advisor)
This master thesis deals with the topic of risk management and explains its importance during project management in IT projects. It descibes every phase of the risk management life cycle and also methods and procedures used in each phase. After that the thesis focuses on decision analysis, mainly on decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation. The last part contains the design of an application for risk management and visualization. Prototype of this system has been implemented based on this design in PHP framework Laravel. Details of the implementation and testing are in the next part of this thesis. In the end there is an assessment with discussion of possible expansions.
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Project Management and Risks Visualization Support Tool
Přibylová, Kateřina ; Trchalík, Roman (referee) ; Kreslíková, Jitka (advisor)
This master thesis deals with the topic of risk management and explains its importance during project management in IT projects. It descibes every phase of the risk management life cycle and also methods and procedures used in each phase. After that the thesis focuses on decision analysis, mainly on decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation. The last part contains the design of an application for risk management and visualization. Prototype of this system has been implemented based on this design in PHP framework Laravel. Details of the implementation and testing are in the next part of this thesis. In the end there is an assessment with discussion of possible expansions.
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Targeting inflation under uncertainty: policy makers's perspective
Šmídková, Kateřina
Reflecting the further progress of the methodological debate inside the CNB, this paper aims to provide suggestions to policy makers as to which methods could be used to assess uncertainty during the monetary policy decision process. Suggestions for each stage of the process are summarised in the final chapter. These take into account the findings of surveys of three very distinct sources – the economic literature on monetary policy under uncertainty, the managerial literature on decision analysis, and the real-life strategies of five central banks.
Fulltext:  PDF
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Techniques and instruments of decision making under risk for one-phase decision problems.
Horčička, Jan ; Švecová, Lenka (advisor) ; Fotr, Jiří (referee)
This thesis is focused on decision models for decision making under risk and uncertainty. The thesis should give a comprehensive insight about individual decision criteria and the reader should form a clear picture about usability of these models for solving particular decision problems. The thesis tries to provide objective point of view to the reader with highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of each model. In the frame of decision making under risk, the thesis mentions the expected value rule, the rule of expected value and variance and the stochastic dominance rules. For the field of decision making under uncertainty, the thesis brings up the Laplace's criterion, the Hurwicz's criterion and Savage's regret criterion. The thesis further deal with the theory of expected utility. It brings up the method of construction of the utility curve, methods of usage and also known deficiencies of the theory when used in real world situations. In connection with utility theory, the thesis introduces the expected utility rule. For mapping future development, the thesis work with probability trees and explains their usability for modeling situations under risk and uncertainty. For all of the featured decision criteria, the work shows their applicative usage by using a prefigurative example. The reader should therefore know, how to proceed when using mentioned models for solving real decision problems.
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