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Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices
Kubaštová, Magdaléna ; Fičura, Milan (advisor) ; Galuška, Jiří (referee)
This master thesis, Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices deals with macroeconomic variables that drive the price of gold. This paper is divided into three chapters: Possible investment forms in gold, Fundamental analysis of commodities, and lastly Analysis of impact of strong economies and their influence on gold prices. In the first chapter, emphasis is put on the Efficient Market Theory that plays an important role in success or failure of investment strategies such as technical and fundamental analysis. The second chapter illustrates the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and how it is used as a tool to predict the movement of gold prices. This chapter also discusses other large drivers effecting gold prices such as financial and geopolitical stability, inflation, interest rates, Central Banking operations, the value of the US dollar, and other influences. The final chapter analyzes the impact of announced fundamental news in the United States, China, and Europe on the price of gold. The empirical part of this paper analysis the impact of announced fundamental news in United States, China and Europe on gold prices. With the use of the linear regression method, we can test whether the macroeconomic variables significantly influence the return on gold investments immediately after their announcement, or over long periods of time. If this new public data was calculated into gold prices directly, investors would not be able to achieve additional returns by using fundamental analysis. The major findings are summed up at the end of the last chapter.
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Can the stock markets predict changes in macroeconomic variables?
Vařeka, Marek ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Hayat, Arshad (referee)
A bstract There is a consensus in the literature, that the stock market can predict the Gross domestic product on quarterly base or the industrial production, which is good proxy for GDP, on monthly basis and that the causal rela tionship between stock market and GDP should work both ways. However, using Vector autoregression model on US data since 1950, model shows that the stock market can not only predict the Industrial production on monthly basis, but also ISM non-manufacturing index, which is a good proxy for services in the economy. Furthermore I have managed to prove, that the unemployment can be predicted by past realizations of the stock market and managed to explain almost one third of all variations in change in un employment using S&P500 and oil prices during last 20 years. The Granger causality test concluded that stock market does cause the unemployment but not vice versa, at least during last 20 years.
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Fundamental and technical analysis of stock title Airbus Group
Kohoutová, Eva ; Veselá, Jitka (advisor) ; Mazáček, David (referee)
My bachelor thesis is focused on fundamental and technical analysis of stock title Airbus Group and depending on that fact is the aim of my work the formulation of investment recommendation. The thesis consists of four chapters. First of them is concerned with global analysis and its impact on the stock market. The second chapter deals with sector analysis, where my aim was to examine the branch od Aerospace and Defence in detail. In the last part I carried out corporate analysis and with individual models I tried to determine, what is the intrinsic value of the stock. Technical analysis and to that related ways of prediction of the next trend development are stated in the fourth and also last chapter of my thesis.
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Fundamental analysis of a share of Pegas Nonwovens
Pečonka, David ; Veselá, Jitka (advisor) ; Derner, Tomáš (referee)
The topic of my bachelor thesis is the fundamental analysis of a share of Pegas Nonwovens company. It consists of three parts: the first (global) part examines how major macroeconomic variables (interest rate, inflation, money supply, GDP) influence share prices. The second chapter describes characteristic factors of nonwovens industry which may also affect analyzed share. It's for example cyclicality of the business cycle or competitive environment. At the third, lowest level the corporate fundamentals are introduced. Using various models, I calculate the intrinsic value and in comparison with the market price I determine the valuation of shares. The aim should be the formulation of investment recommendation to buy or sell Pegas shares.
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Gold price analysis
Kushnir, Glib ; Drozen, František (advisor) ; Šípek, Ladislav (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to identify the main factors that most affect the market value of gold. The work is divided into four chapters. The first chapter describes the change in the method of gold using from antiquity to the present, then the reader is familiar with the current state of the gold market. The third chapter focuses on ways of investing in gold. It is divided into two parts: direct and indirect forms of investment. The last chapter based on fundamental analysis analyzed the correlation of basic macroeconomic data and gold prices.
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Foreign Direct Investment in Western Balkans
Odstrčilíková, Linda ; Řehořová, Veronika (advisor) ; Vošta, Milan (referee)
This paper deals with FDI in the Western Balkan countries with an emphasis on the determinants that influence FDI inflow. First, the conditions for investing in the region are examined, and then specific variables are chosen to be analyzed in the second part of the thesis. In the empirical part of the paper, the statistical significance of institutional and macroeconomic variables on the FDI inflow is researched. The concluding chapter evaluates the relationship between the accession process and FDI volume, and potential areas for FDI placement are recommended. As overall follow up to the preceding deductions, the investment outlook is finally presented.
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Political efforts to be re-elected - the contexts of the business cycle in the Czech Republic?
Josková, Kamila ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
As apparent from the name of my diploma thesis I am trying to find a relation between the political and the economical cycle in the Czech Republic. It is evident that the political events are motivated by the personal interests of the politicians to be re-elected. Also the development of the economy does not need to be spontaneous but influenced by the populist intentions. In the theoretical part I am trying to explain the relations between the political and the economical cycle and also the behaviour of several macroeconomic variables which I have chosen for the analytical part of my work. These are: GDP development, inflation, unemployment rate, social migration of the population, consumption and balance of the state budget. In the analytical part I am analysing the behaviour of the selected variables in the election period 1996-1998, 1999-2002, 2003-2006 and in the first two years of the postelection period 2007 and 2008. Based on the behaviour of the variables within the political cycle I am trying to find the possible reason of their development, whether it is a spontaneous process characterized by the current phase of the economical cycle or whether it is a result of the implemented populist measures.
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