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An Empirical Analysis of Trade Effects of the European Monetary Union
Šedivá, Radka ; Klosová, Anna (advisor)
This master dissertation deals with broadly discussed topic -- are there really some trade enhancing effects for countries that have adopted the euro? This thesis provides an estimate of the effect of the European Monetary Union on trade, taking into account panel data of 37 economies during sample period 1995 -- 2012. The sample consists of 27 European Union members and 10 non-EU OECD countries. After applying gravity model of trade and controlling for gravity-model-specific influences, the effect of the euro on trade obtained from the results of the estimation is positive and statistically significant 9 per cent.
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Econometric Analysis of the Main Determinants of Austrian Foreign Trade
Davidová, Lucie ; Sedláček, Jiří (advisor) ; Chrobok, Viktor (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyze the main determinants of Austrian imports by estimating the import function. The analysis of the data from 1995--2011 implies great openness of the economy, strong orientation at machinery industry, Germany (40 %) and other EU-countries (other 35 %). I have employed a linear log-log model estimated by OLS. Consequently, I have obtained a triple of estimated import functions -- a general one, one for year 2011 in particular, and the last one for the top ten Austrian importers. There is a significant positive impact of partner's GDP (0.81--1.42), common language (1.1--2.3) and contiguity (0.4--2.7). On contrary, we observe an inverse relationship of imports with distance (0.9--1.1) and trade barriers (0.3--0.8). Considering similarities between Austrian and Czech economies, we can deduct similar implications for economic and trade policies.
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Italian trade policy analysis
Molnárová, Zuzana ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to introduce the current economic situation of Italy, is macroeconomical characteristics and features. Gravitz model of international trade is introduced here and applied to analyse trade relations of Italy with its major business partners. Recommendations and ways to improve its trade balance by increasing exports are presented in the thesis.
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Analysis of export promotion provided by Czech Export Bank
Potácelová, Věra ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Tuček, Miroslav (referee)
Export promotion via officially supported export credits and insurance is relatively widespread around the world. The thesis describes activity of Czech Export Bank (CEB) and mentions also its legal framework in Czech system of export promotion. Text contains pros and cons of export promotion. The main part of the thesis is panel data analysis using gravity equation. This panel data involves 130 countries in period of 1996 -- 2008 with data on export, export promotion, GDP, political risk and other variables. There is investigated impact of activities of CEB on Czech export using 2 gravity models (static and dynamic). In these models export promotion is significant factor with positive impact on Czech export.
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Vliv východního rozšíření EU na obchod vybraných nových členských států se třetími zeměmi (Trade Effects of the East Enlargement in the CEECs)
Polášek, Petr ; Němcová, Ingeborg (advisor) ; Joklová, Kateřina (referee)
The thesis analyses the effect of the Eastern enlargement on goods flows into four CEECs. In the beginning, the Eastern enlargement and numerous related economic effects are briefly characterised. After that it focuses on trade diversion and trade creation effects, starting with a concise discussion of the traditional customs union theory and followed by the explanation of the choice of the estimation method. A gravity model applied on a panel data set is then used to model the import flows into the EU15 and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The results showed that a careful choice of the model specification and estimating technique is needed and the model that controlled for four sources of unobserved heterogeneity (time, country pair, importer, and exporter specific characteristics) was chosen. Based on this model's results, we could expect a significant increase of imports from EFTA into these countries but aggregately we should not expect any trade diversion as no further redirecting of import flows from the rest of the world is predicted. Eventually, some of the real trade flow developments (territorial and commodity structures and revealed comparative advantages of selected regions) are described.
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