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Impacts of CNB Monetary Interventions from 2013 to the Insolvency of the Companies
Kudějová, Barbora ; Komrska, Martin (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
The diploma thesis is concerned with the intervention of the Czech National Bank in the area of the exchange market and its impact on the insolvency of companies. The majority of the studies dealing with the liquidation of companies focuses primarily on the microeconomic determinants of bankruptcy. Conversely, the empirical study carried out in this project concentrates on the macroeconomic determinants of company bankruptcy. For the purposes of this study were used the quarterly panel data of insolvencies for the 5-year-period between 2010 - 2015. The quantity of insolvencies was established for individual branches. Furthermore, the method Differences-in-Differences was employed in order to compare those branches which were assumed to prove a significant impact of the depreciation of the Czech crown in comparison to those where the exchange rate seems to be rather irrelevant. The results of the regressive analysis have confirmed the initial hypothesis of this work: from the perspective of insolvency, the intervention on the aggregate level has improved the situation of companies. Finally, the impact on individual branches was investigated in this diploma thesis. The results testified that the situation deteriorated in case of the travel agencies (as expected).
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Impact of Czech National Bank´s foreign exchange intervention on the trade balance of the Czech Republic
Blumtritt, Jakub ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Jiránková, Martina (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze and evaluate the effect of the Czech National Bank´s foreign exchange intervention on the trade balance of the Czech Republic. For this purpose a hypothesis was set, that in the short-term the devaluation of the Czech currency causes deterioration of the trade balance and only after some time has passed the trade balance starts to grow. In theory this effect is known as the J-curve hypothesis. The first chapter summarizes theoretical knowledge about monetary policy and exchange rate theory. The second chapter analyzes the development of commodity and territorial structure of the Czech trade balance from 2000 to 2013. The third chapter focuses on the foreign exchange intervention itself and provides arguments for and against this measure taken by the Czech National Bank. The fourth chapter is the most important one for acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis set. It uses the Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the impact of devaluation on the trade balance of Czech Republic with Germany. Subsequently outcomes of this model are compared to the real statistical data of Czech trade.
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Consequences of foreign exchange intervention on the economy of the Czech Republic
Košická, Monika ; Titze, Miroslav (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
Czech Republic is currently struggling with the threat of deflation, therefore the CNB has used the foreign exchange interventions to prevent this. The thesis examines the current state of the economy and aims to answer the question whether the depreciation of the crown truly prevent deflation and a possible deflationary spiral. To achieve the objective are used comparison methods, descriptions, observations and analysis, including relational analysis. The theoretical part focuses on the theoretical impacts of depreciation of the crown from a macroeconomic point of view. Furthermore, solves the problem of deflation and for example describes the deflation in Japan. In the practical part I compare the views of the CNB and other alternative views on this situation. In the final part I analyse GDP, export and import, terms of trade, consumption and inflation. Based on this analysis, I conclude that although that there was an improvement of some macroeconomic indicators, we can't ascribe the improvement to the foreign-exchange interventions.
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Foreing Exchange Intervention of the CNB and their short-term impact on foreign trade
Zubíková, Adéla ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
This thesis analyzes the causes and effects of foreign exchange intervention of Czech National Bank (CNB) in November 2013. Instrument of foreign exchange interventions was chosen because of the limited effectiveness of other instruments of monetary expansion, when the economy is in the liquidity trap. Due to the current low interest rates it's not possible to draw on the experience of using the CNB's foreign exchange interventions between 2001 and 2002, the work therefore presents a comparison of short-term interventions impact with the impact of foreign exchange interventions in Switzerland, whose motive for the announcement of the foreign exchange rate commitment was similar. Based on the analysis of macroeconomic variables before and after the initiation of interventions is examined the hypothesis that foreign exchange interventions didn't have a significant impact on the domestic economy in the short term. Part of this work is to analyze the impact of interventions on foreign trade. Thesis verifies the hypothesis that short-term impact of foreign exchange interventions was consistent with the concept of J-curve. To verify this hypothesis is used time series analysis for selected commodities of foreign trade. The results of the study confirm a hypothesis as the weak impact of the intervention on the domestic economy and the validity of the concept of J-curve for the majority of selected commodities.
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Analysis of the impact of foreign exchange interventions of the Czech National Bank in the years 1993-2013
Kuchařová, Martina ; Štekláč, Jiří (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
The bachelor thesis is analyzing the impact of foreign exchange intervention by Czech National Bank in years 1993 -- 2013. The main goal is to analyze and evaluate impact of realized monetary policies, especially of foreign exchange intervention, on real economics. First, I am elaborating on theoretical background of concept of central bank and I am trying to provide comprehensible explanation about its role in forming monetary policy of the country. Particular instruments and their application by Czech National Bank are also introduced. In practical section of the bachelor thesis I am showing usage of individual monetary policy tools in the past in the context of economically situation of the Czech Republic. The bachelor thesis presents to the reader basic idea about status and activity of the central bank of our country and about impact of realized measures on real economy.
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Analysis of the Balance of Payments of Czech Republic
Pechová, Kateřina ; Pavlík, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Koubalíková, Jitka (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the balance of payments of the Czech Republic since its accession to the European Union, in the period 2004-2014. The term "balance of payments" is defined in the theoretical part of the thesis, so is its horizontal and vertical structure and also the theory of the external economic balance. The theory of balance of payments is described according to the fifth and also the sixth edition of the Manual of the International Monetary Fund (BPM). The analytical part of the thesis describes particular accounts in the observed time period with reference to changes in trends. In this chapter is also assessed the impact that the accession to the European Union had on the external economic balance of the Czech Republic. The final chapter is devoted to a case study of the foreign exchange intervention made by the Czech National Bank in November 2013.
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The impact of foreign exchange intervetion of CNB on international trade of Czech Republic
Mikšík, Matěj ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to analyze the impact of currency depreciation caused by foreing exchange intervention of Czech National Bank in November 2013 on international trade between Czech Republic and Germany. The volume of foreign trade of Czech Republic has been growing, but Czech Republic gradually loses commercial potential. The standart view of the impact of foreign exchange intervention is to stimulate export. But the theoretical concept called J-curve states that currency depreciation leads at first to the decrease of net export in the short run. To increase net export the Marshall-Lerner condition has to be met. The work verifies the hypothesis that after foreign exchange intervention the decrease of net export occurs before improving. Research uses cointegration analysis and Error correction model on the basis of quarter data from the first quarter of year 2005 to the second quarter of year 2014. The results confirms the concept of J-Curve in the bilateral trade of Czech Republic and Germany. In the first two quarters after foreign exchange intervention there is the decrease in net export. The Marshall-Lerner condition is met during the second quarter and the depreciation of the crown leads to the expected growth in net export.
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Inflation targeting in an environment of deflationary pressures
Krupička, Josef ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Revenda, Zbyněk (referee)
This research paper on monetary policy focuses on strategy of inflation targeting and its modification in an environment of deflationary pressures. Focus of this paper is based on three main points that correspond to the content of individual chapters. The first point is a theoretical analysis of the main attributes of inflation targeting with emphasis on analysis of the functioning of the transmission channels. The second point is an analysis of implementation of this strategy in the Czech National Bank and in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. In this point separate analysis was made of the development of inflation targeting and transformation of relationship between macroeconomic variables in transmission mechanism. The third point then debates the modification of monetary policy instruments in the context of inflation targeting adopted by the Czech National Bank, with an emphasis on the introduction of exchange rate commitment. Throughout the work are used simple methods for analysis with further emphasis on the actuality. The conclusion summarizes the findings and evaluates the modification of the inflation targeting strategy as a positive phenomenon in the context of evolution of monetary policy.
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Analysis of influence of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between the Czech Republic and Germany
Dvouletý, Ondřej ; Říhová, Gabriela (advisor) ; Skopeček, Jan (referee)
Study analyses the influence of the real exchange rate on the real trade balance between the Czech Republic and Germany, using quarterly data for the period 2000 -- 2014. Previous empirical studies are summarized and their method is used for this analysis. Data are multiplied by consumer price index to achieve real variables and then transformed into natural logarithms. Used variables are trade balance, export, gross domestic products of the Czech Republic and Germany and dummy variables representing economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 and monetary intervention of the Czech National Bank in autumn 2013. All variables were tested for stationarity and were found to be non-stationary, fortunately cointegration among variables was proved. Results failed to prove existence of J-curve concept. Results indicate, that in the short run after depreciation the real trade balance increases, but after that decreases. Economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 led to decrease of the real trade balance. Intervention of the Czech National Bank did not lead in the short run to a decrease of the real trade balance. Granger causality test between the real export, the real trade balance and the real exchange rate did not prove any causal relationships.
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