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Komunikace jako nástroj monetární politiky ČNB
Avramov, Dominik
Avramov, D. Communication as a tool for monetary policy of ČNB. Bachelor thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2023. Central bank communication is a hot topic because, in a world where in-formation travels at the speed of light, it is in the interest of central banks that their monetary policy is properly understood and does not spread uncertainty. The thesis will focus on the period 2016-2020, during which the Fed, BoE and ČNB changed their key rates in an attempt to tighten monetary policy. The text summarises the current understanding of central bank communication and then analyses three central banks to use the comparison to improve the ČNB's current communication strategy.
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The Czech National Bank Communication and the Yield Curve
Karas, Pavel ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Maršál, Aleš (referee)
This thesis analyzes the effect of the Czech National Bank's (CNB) communica- tion on the interest rate volatility (PRJBOR reference rate). Starting with the literature survey about the central bank communication in the world, I focus on the literature that concerns the CNB. To model the CNB's communication, I use the GARCH(l,1), EGARCH(l,1) and TARCH(l,1) models. I have created a unique data set containing the dummy variables for the CNB communication. The results are as follows: (a) the CNB's communication tends to decrease the volatility, (b) timing of the communication has a key role as the comments closer to the meeting have bigger calming effect, and that (c) there is no clear effect concerning the comments of the Bank Board members in the media. JEL Classification Keywords E43, E44, E52, E58 Czech National Bank, monetary policy signaling, central bank communication, the term structure of interest rates, GARCH analysis Author's email karasp@email.cz Supervisors's email roman. horvath@gmail.com
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Central Bank Transparency and Price Stability
Katuščáková, Dominika ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Luňáčková, Petra (referee)
The thesis investigates the central bank transparency employing the Monetary Policy Transparency Index. The main objective is to investigate recent trends in the central bank transparency. First, the level of monetary policy transparency is investigated from various aspects, as, for instance, time or geographical aspect. In the next part, all the data are averaged and linear regression analysis is carried out to detect the determinants of the monetary policy which explain the variation among the individual central banks. Finally, panel regressions are conducted to explore the time variation in the monetary policy transparency in the countries. Throughout the text, all the results are compared with the results presented in the paper by Dincer & Eichengreen (2009). The data show that the overall time trend in the level of monetary transparency is increasing. It can be concluded that inflation targeters are generally more transparent than countries with other frameworks. The same applies to advanced countries and emerging and developing countries. The de facto exchange rate regime and all political variables used significantly determine the variation in the monetary policy transparency comparing individual countries. GDP per capita and financial depth significantly influence the time variation in the...
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Measurement of Clarity of Financial Stability Reports
Mišák, Vojtěch ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
The topic of this diploma thesis is to measure and investigate the clarity of Financial stability reports from 27 European central banks. Using unbalanced panel data from 2004 to 2017 we found out variables that determine the level of clarity of Financial stability reports. Clarity indices are calculated by Flesch-Kincaid readability tests. Based on our results, we claim that the clarity of the Financial stability report is affected by the level of independence of the central bank and by non-housing macroprudential policy index. Furthermore, the clarity of Financial stability reports changes among years and especially during the financial crisis. According to spatial models, the distance between central banks really matters in the terms of the clarity of Financial stability reports.
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Central Bank Communication and Correlation between Financial Markets: Evidence from the Euro Area
Kučera, Milan ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to assess the effect of ECB's communication on financial market co- movements between Italy, Spain, Germany and France using MGARCH family of models. Author addresses partially the potential problem of endogeneity of central bank communication by using Composite indicator of systemic stress and excess liquidity. The author estimates the impact of ECB's communication on correlations of government bond yield changes using daily data from 2008 to 2014. For this purpose author employs bivariate diagonal BEKK(1,1) and bivariate scalar BEKK(1,1) with surprises of macroeconomic announcements under control. The results are consistent and robust for all models, the results suggest that communication does not have statistically significant effect on financial market correlations in the Euro area. Furthermore, author defines delta functions which describe and quantify the immediate and full effect of explanatory variables on conditional correlations in bivariate diagonal BEKK(1,1) and bivariate scalar BEKK(1,1). To the best of author's knowledge this thesis is the only one in the literature which examines this effect of ECB's communication by MGARCH models. Keywords: Financial markets, central bank communication, correlation, MGARCH, BEKK Author's e-mail: milankucera1@seznam.cz...
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The impact of ECB communication on selected financial markets in eurozone
Luková, Veronika ; Moravcová, Michala (advisor) ; Hauzr, Marek (referee)
This thesis investigates the impact of the European central bank communication and macroeconomic news announcements on the price and volatility of selected financial markets. We examine the stock markets of Germany and countries of PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain), we selected the stock indices as the financial assets, we employed the GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. Main result was that the communication of ECB has significant impact on the volatility of all examined stock markets. Volatilities of German and Italian stock markets are the most influenced ones. Volatility of Portugal stock market is the least influenced one. The ECB's communication affects also the level of examined stock markets except Portugal stock market. Our re sults also confirmed that the macroeconomic announcements have significant impact on the volatility, but they have no fundamental impact on the level of these stock markets. 1
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The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Price of Financial Assets
Říha, Jakub ; Moravcová, Michala (advisor) ; Džmuráňová, Hana (referee)
This thesis investigates the effect of Czech macroeconomic news announcements and Czech National Bank (CNB) communication on the price of financial assets and its volatility. As the financial assets we selected the EUR/CZK and USD/CZK exchange rates and also the Prague stock PX Index. To analyze the aforesaid effect we employed the GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models, each with Normal and Student's t error distribution. The main results were that the CNB's communication indeed have significant effect on the price of all three examined assets and surprisingly also tend to increase their volatility. Also the macroeconomic announcements significantly influence examined assets however significant macroeconomic indicators differ for each asset. The most influencing ones are: CPI, 1YPRIBOR and the unemployment rate. Another finding of our research was that volatility of examined time series data shows the characteristics of leverage effect, volatility clustering and persistence. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Communication of the European Central Bank and contagion on financial markets
Jonášová, Júlia ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
v Abstract The aim of this thesis is to assess the effect of central bank communication on joint occurrence of extreme returns and on extreme movements shared by two stock markets. The research concentrates on the following aspects: predictability of increased share of countries experiencing extreme returns in the eurozone based on the nature of policymaker's statement and also a set of control variables, change in probability of extreme returns joint occurrence after president's speech, determinants of joint occurrence when non-standard measures were announced and finally, effect of crisis period. Additionally, determinants of shared extreme movements between particular countries are examined. The results suggest that communication nature or crisis are not significant predictors of extreme returns joint occurrence. Moreover, markets seem to react jointly to ECB president's speech only when they have extremely high returns. Furthermore, markets jointly react on days of nonstandard measures announcement differently. We also found that in the first quantile dovish statements tend to increase returns above their mean in case of Greece and Germany, and Greece and the UK. Rest of the pairs of countries have opposite reaction to dovish tone and communication is significant in the 95th quantile for the pair...
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The Czech National Bank Communication and the Yield Curve
Karas, Pavel ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Maršál, Aleš (referee)
This thesis analyzes the effect of the Czech National Bank's (CNB) communica- tion on the interest rate volatility (PRJBOR reference rate). Starting with the literature survey about the central bank communication in the world, I focus on the literature that concerns the CNB. To model the CNB's communication, I use the GARCH(l,1), EGARCH(l,1) and TARCH(l,1) models. I have created a unique data set containing the dummy variables for the CNB communication. The results are as follows: (a) the CNB's communication tends to decrease the volatility, (b) timing of the communication has a key role as the comments closer to the meeting have bigger calming effect, and that (c) there is no clear effect concerning the comments of the Bank Board members in the media. JEL Classification Keywords E43, E44, E52, E58 Czech National Bank, monetary policy signaling, central bank communication, the term structure of interest rates, GARCH analysis Author's email karasp@email.cz Supervisors's email roman. horvath@gmail.com
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Central Bank Transparency and Price Stability
Katuščáková, Dominika ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Luňáčková, Petra (referee)
The thesis investigates the central bank transparency employing the Monetary Policy Transparency Index. The main objective is to investigate recent trends in the central bank transparency. First, the level of monetary policy transparency is investigated from various aspects, as, for instance, time or geographical aspect. In the next part, all the data are averaged and linear regression analysis is carried out to detect the determinants of the monetary policy which explain the variation among the individual central banks. Finally, panel regressions are conducted to explore the time variation in the monetary policy transparency in the countries. Throughout the text, all the results are compared with the results presented in the paper by Dincer & Eichengreen (2009). The data show that the overall time trend in the level of monetary transparency is increasing. It can be concluded that inflation targeters are generally more transparent than countries with other frameworks. The same applies to advanced countries and emerging and developing countries. The de facto exchange rate regime and all political variables used significantly determine the variation in the monetary policy transparency comparing individual countries. GDP per capita and financial depth significantly influence the time variation in the...
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