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Price Level Convergence and Real Exchange Rate Determinants in the New Member States of the European Union
Pospíšilová, Andrea ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Differences in price levels as well as inflation rates among countries have been subject of discussion for a long time. More than the actual levels, however, the question of determinants of price levels in time and a possible convergence is key for the new member states with respect to the Maastricht criteria. The dynamics of price levels is crucial, and many suggestions have been put forward to explain the observed trends and changes. This thesis focuses on the determinants of relative price level, and hence real exchange rate, developments in the new member states of the EU and employs a regression analysis to examine their change in time. As most of the countries in focus are transition economies, structural variables are also included among the independent variables. We find that the Balassa- Samuelson effect is key to explaining real exchange rate developments as the effect of productivity differential has been significant over the whole period examined. However, in the recent years, marked by the onset of the crisis, other factors, such as the structure of trade and Euro area membership, have become more prominent.
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Analysis of nominal and real convergence of the Visegrad Group states
Černý, Robert ; Ševčíková, Michaela (advisor) ; Štípek, Vladimír (referee)
The aim of the submitted thesis is macroeconomic analysis, comparison and evaluation of nominal and real convergence of the Visegrad Group states with EU-15 states. By the help of regression model, one can state that in years 2004--2008 countries of V4 reached Beta - convergence with EU-15. However, this did not hold for the critical period in 2008--2012 when mainly Hungary lagged behind. There was proved a positive relationship between real and nominal convergence wherewith Balassa-Samuelson Effect for EU states was confirmed. The Czech Republic has always shown a lower nominal value than it would correspond to its GDP per capita, still it approximated to regression line over time. Other V4 states registered inverse course. During period 2004--2012, the Czech Republic performed Maastricht conver-gence criteria best from V4 states. Contrariwise, Hungary had the worst position of the ob-served period.
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Elements ifluencing a price level in Czech Republic, a convergence of price levels in dependence on integration of Czech republic to European monetary union
Richtrmocová, Klára ; Vošická, Zdenka (advisor) ; Bureš, Jan (referee)
Česká republika se společně s dalšími devíti evropskými státy automaticky účastní třetí fáze hospodářské a měnové unie, což znamená, že souhlasí s přijetím jednotné evropské měny. Mezi názory, proč nepospíchat s přijetím eura, patří otázky reálné a nominální konvergence. V této diplomové práci sleduji vztah mezi reálnou a nominální konvergencí pomocí Balassa-Samuelsonového efektu. Cílem práce je odpovědět na otázku, zda po přijetí jednotné evropské měny ?hrozí? v České republice vyšší míra inflace. V teoretické části se věnuji problematice Balassa-Samuelsonového efektu a jeho vlivu na plnění maastrichtského kritéria cenové stability. Jedna z kapitol je věnována příkladu konvergence Portugalska, které již jednotnou evropskou měnu v hotovostní podobě přijalo v roce 2002 a je jak rozlohou, počtem obyvatel tak i ekonomickými charakteristikami podobné České republice. V empirické části se pokusím pomocí analýzy časových řad odhadnout budoucí hodnoty CPI u jednotlivých skupin spotřebního koše podle dosavadního vývoje CPI.
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