|
|
Modelling dependent lives
Pavčová, Eva ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee)
Title: Modelling Dependent Lives Author: Eva Pavčová Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Lucie Mazurová, Ph.D., Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Abstract: In this thesis, we model the dependence between the remaining lifetimes of a husband and wife using a specific Markov model. We examined the impact of the dependence on the net single premium using the specific Markov model that captures the long-term dependence between lifetimes of the two considered lives. Using this model we have calculated 10-year joint-life annuity due and 10-year last-survivor annuity due considering the age rage (37, 80) in case of dependence and also independence of the two considered lives. The calculations were based on the dataset related to the Czech population in 2015. The impact of the dependence between the remaining lifetimes of the husband and wife was found to be not significant. Keywords: positive quadrant depedence, multiple life insurance premiums, depen- dent lifetimes, joint-life annuity, last-survivor annuity, joint-life and last-survivor models
|
|
|
Aggregate loss models with dependent frequency and severity
Čápová, Petra ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
In non-life insurance, the independence between the number and size of claims is usually assumed. However, this thesis shows that the assumption of independence can be omitted. We deal with the dependency modeling between frequency and severity of claims. For including the dependence to the total claims model, we consider two methods. The first method uses generalized linear models and the second method used in the thesis is based on dependence modeling by copulas. We also perform a model with independent frequency and severity of claims. This model is compared with the described methods in the simulation part of the thesis. We include dependency on explanatory (rating) variables in all of these models. 1
|
|
|
Random rates of return in financial and insurance mathematics
Pejic, Mladen ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
Title: Random rates of return in financial and insurance mathematics Author: Mladen Pejic Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Jitka Zichová, Dr., Department of Probability and Mathema- tical Statistics Abstract in English language: The thesis is focused on the study of stochastic life annuities. It represents a combination of basic probability with financial mathe- matics and life insurance. The first part is focused on financial mathematics. Special attention is paid to the calculation of present and future values of annui- ties with stochastic interest rates. In the second part, we demonstrate the use of random interest rates in calculations of present values of annuities related to life insurance. In the third part, we focus on the application of log - normal distribu- tion, which is mostly used in real life problems. In the last part, a numerical study is presented. We asses the effect of the log - normal distribution parameters on the present value of the annuities and we examine the accuracy of the estimates made by the method of moments. ii
|
|
|
Bonus - Malus System with Deductibles
Kubát, Petr ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Pešta, Michal (referee)
This thesis deals with the option of substitution of malus surcharge on pre- mium in a classical bonus - malus system with deductible. Firstly, we clarify the basic principles of bonus - malus systems, then we show how to model the expec- ted claim amount of the insureds based on their characteristics and we explain how to correctly select values of premium discounts and surcharges in the classes of bonus - malus systems. Next we clarify the concept of deductible and introduce the technique of its application on these systems. Finally we show the practical application of deductible on two models of bonus - malus systems and we evaluate and compare the results. 1
|
|
|
Comonotonic risks in financial and insurance applications
Palko, Maximilián ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Petrová, Barbora (referee)
In actuarial mathematics we are often interested in distribution of a random vector. Sometimes these distributions might be too complicated. In this thesis we are going to study how to find an approximation of the random vector for which the distribution would be easier to obtain. Especially we will look for approxima- tions of sums of random variables. We will find out how this problem could be solved with knowledge of a dependency structure known as comonotonocity. For approximation of the random vector we will take his comonotonic counterpart. That would be more risky way but with knowledge of the dependency structure of the comonotonic random vector we will be able to obtain its distribution. In the last part of this thesis we will illustrate the use of findings about comonotonocity on examples. 1
|
|
|
Solvency II: solvency in insurance
Čáha, Pavel ; Cipra, Tomáš (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
This thesis is dedicated to Solvency II, a regulatory framework for insurance and reinsurance companies effective in European Union. Firstly, it explains the notion solvency and also describes the principles of the regulation itself. Another part is focused on the calculation of solvency capital requirement and minimal capital requirement, using standard formula. The capital requirements are derived on the level of risk modules and their submodules. Furthermore, the topic of technical reserves is discussed and emphasis is placed on the derivation of mean square error of prediction. Described methods are Chain-Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson. The last part of the thesis includes the calculation of capital requirements for real data. A program SolvencyII.xlsx that shows particular derivations is enclosed.
|
|
|
Value-at-Risk Calculation Using Extreme Value Theory
Lipták, Patrik ; Hendrych, Radek (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
This diploma thesis studies extreme value theory and its application in finan- cial risk management, when focusing on computation of well-known risk measure - Value at Risk (VaR). The first part of the thesis reviews theoretical background. In particular, it rigorously discusses the extreme value theory when emphasi- zing fundamentals theorems and their consequences followed by the summary of methods based on this theory, specifically, Block Maxima method, Hill met- hod and Peaks over Threshold method. Moreover, specific issues that may arise in such applications and ways how to deal with these problems are described. The second part of the thesis contains extensive empirical study, which together with theoretical foundings applies each of the examined method to real market data of the closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index, stocks of JPMorgan and stock index Russell 2000 in order to compare methods based on extreme value theory together with the classic methodology RiskMetrics. 1
|
|
|
Parametric risk modelling in assessing mortality
Hlavandová, Radana ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Branda, Martin (referee)
In this thesis we focus on modeling stochastic mortality and parameter risk in assessing mortality. We explore two mortality stochastic models for modeling the number of deaths in portfolio which consist of one or more than one cohort. We define the term mixture of distributions and introduce Beta-Binomial and Poisson-Gamma model. We address immediate life annuities and we apply Bayesian Poisson- Gamma model to quantify longevity risk on data. The obvious increasing trend of average lifetime leads insurance companies to greater protection against longevity risk. We show how to deal with solvency rules by internal models designed consistently with the requirement in the standard formula of Solvency II. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
|
|
|
LDA approach to operational risk modelling
Kaplanová, Martina ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
In this thesis we will deal with the term of operational risk, as it is presented in the directives Basel 2 that are mandatory for financial institutions in the European Union. The main problem is operational risk modeling, therefore, how to measure and manage it. In the first part we will look at the possibility of calculating the capital requirements for operational risk under Basel 2, mainly the calculation with the internal model. We will describe the specific procedures for the development of the internal model and we will focus on Loss Distribution Approach. The internal model will be based on modeling of loss in each risk cell separately. In the second part we will show, how to include modeling of dependence structure between risk cells to the internal model with using copulas. Finally, we will show the illustrative example, where we will see, whether the modeling of dependence leads to a reduction of the total capital requirement. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
|
|
|
Stochastic mortality modeling for multiple populations
Skřivanová, Zuzana ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee)
Title: Stochastic mortality modelling for multiple populations Abstract: This thesis deals with the possibilities of modelling and forecasting of age-specific mortality rates. The introductory part summarizes the basic terms from demo- graphy, which are related to mortality, and specifies elementary approaches to the mortality modelling. Subsequently there are in detail described the three most commonly used stochastic mortality models - Lee-Carter, Renshaw-Haberman and Cairns-Blake-Dowd. The fundamental part of this thesis deals with the possi- bilities of using these models for mortality modelling simultaneously in correlated populations. These theoretical bases are in the final part of this thesis numerically illustrated on the mortality models for populations of Czech and Slovak Republic. 1
|
guest ::
RSS feed.