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Topics in Yield Curve Modeling
Kučera, Adam ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee) ; Mandel, Martin (referee) ; Berka, Martin (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to examine the interaction of macroeconomic and fi- nancial factors through the lens of yield curve dynamics. The thesis consists of three essays that jointly demonstrate the complexity of information incorporated in the yield curve and the importance of attributing yield curve movements to those factors correctly. The first essay uses news-based approach to identify triggers of the U.S. Treasury yield curve movements and demonstrates shifts in the importance of various causes of the movements. The second essay further evaluates the transmission of fiscal policy shocks to the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The first and the second essay together contribute to the literature by showing that the factors beyond the U.S. economic conditions and monetary policy have been becoming an increasingly important cause of the U.S. yield curve movements. These factors include changes in portfolio allocation, cross-border flight to quality and changes in fiscal policy. The third essay proposes a novel method to apply the up-to-date yield curve models to a government bond yield curve in an economy with a relatively shallow government bond market, using the case of the Czech government bond yield curve. This enables decomposing the yield curve and interpreting its movements while accounting for...
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Comparative analysis of the Central bank of the Russian Federation and the European Central bank
Fomina, Ksenia ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Metrah, Samy (referee)
The Bachelor thesis is focused on the comparative analysis of two central banks, the Central bank of the Russian Federation and the European Central bank. The first and the second chapters are dedicated to the institutional analysis that gives a brief overview of the legislative definition, organizational structure, objectives and instruments of the monetary policy of the Central bank of the Russian Federation and the European Central bank. In conclusion, there is a comparison of the individual systematic characteristics of the monitored central banks. The last chapter represents the practical part of this thesis, which compares activities of the Central bank of the Russian Federation and the European Central bank with the analysis of assets and liabilities before the financial crisis in 2007 and in the last statistically accessible year 2016.
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Monetary policy of the National Bank of Belarus
Lapanovich, Aleksei ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Gevorgyan, Kristine (referee)
The aim of the bachelor´s thesis is to analyze the monetary policy of the Republic of Belarus. At the beginning of the first part is described the economic and financial situation in Belarus. Further, the history of the establishment of the central bank, its objectives and functions are discussed. The second part, following the characteristics of the basic monetary policy regimes, focuses on the analysis of the monetary policy of Belarus and its objectives after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then, the basic principles of the functioning of the transmission mechanism in Belarus are explained. The last part deals with the analysis of selected economic parameters. This section discusses the horizontal structure of the balance of payments for 2016, a graphical analysis of the foreign investment position and the foreign debt of Belarus, the causes of inflation and inflationary pressures, as well as the development of the exchange system and its current trends.
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Fundamental analysis of the Czech crown
Vejvalka, David ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on development of exchange rate between Czech crown American dollar and euro respectively during 1993 and 2017. Special attention is paid on nominal exchange rate, real effective exchange rate and purchasing power parity exchange rate. Analysis is done in the context of exchange rate systems, which are described in the theoretical part of the thesis. In the last chapter, there is executed econometric test regarding reciprocal dependency between gross domestic product and nominal exchange rates.
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Analysis of export and import of the Russian Federation
Romashkina, Natalia ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Koderová, Jitka (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with analysis of export and import of the Russian Federation between 2005-2015. The primary objective is to analyze the factors affecting the foreign trade of Russia and to evaluate their consequences. The analysis shows the low diversification of Russian export, the dependence of foreign trade on exports of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas. Furthermore, the dependence on oil prices, world and domestic GDP is identified. During the study of dependence, the statistical methods are used, which are correlation and regression analysis. The theoretical part devoted to basic concepts, description of importance and functions of foreign trade, theories of external economic relations. In the second chapter a comprehensive analysis of commodity and territorial structure of foreign trade is carried out. The importance of foreign trade for balance of payments, GDP creation and foreign exchange relations is determined. The third chapter is more focused on revelation of trends influencing both exports and imports. The final fourth chapter focuses on the empirical analysis of the export and import of the Russian Federation.
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The existence of EGAP in relation of market and state failures (costs and benefits of EGAP for Czech Republic)
Pýcha, Mikuláš ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Havlíček, David (referee)
Diploma thesis focuses on an issue regarding the state interventions into market economy and provides the explanation, how does different economic ideas approach this issue and whether they support or deny the state interventions. It focuses in detail on support that is provided towards exporting companies. Czech Republic has two export credit agencies, firstly Export Guarantee and Insurance Corporation (EGAP) and secondly Czech Export Bank (CEB). This diploma thesis analyses only EGAP´s structure and quantifies the impact of its existence on Czech economy. In a first part we analyze historical evolution of ideologies that deals with state interventions and market failures in connection with support for exporters. It continues by description how international institutions like WTO or OECD work. Rules for export credit agencies, which summarize Consensus OECD, are closely analyzed. From this point forward the practical part begins to focus on EGAP´s structure. Firstly we describe the mechanism of support through the specific insurance products for exporters, following by analysis of uncommon structure of premium rate. The diploma thesis presents EGAP´s different approach in areas of regulation, structure of shareholders and uncommon risks insuring from regular commercial insurance company. In the last part we describe the procedure of evaluating the output of EGAP´s support for its whole existence. The analysis measures the profits and losses in related areas that were supported by EGAP´s insurance products. Mainly these areas are following: Accumulated loss of EGAP, The amount of profit amongst supported exporters, The amount of profit amongst financing banks and in the end the analysis of the positive impact on the unemployment in Czech Republic. The result should show, how convenient is for government to possess such an institution, especially nowadays when all developed countries do own similar institutions.
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The role of bank loans to non-financial corporations in a business cycle
Kavalírek, Jan ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Kovanda, Lukáš (referee)
The theoretical part of the thesis introduces Austrian theory of business cycles and analyses equilibrium of savings and investments together with the transmission mechanism between savings, deposits, loans and investments. The practical part of the thesis explores business cycle and credit cycle. It analyses an excessive loan expansion of commercial banks together with a excessively expansive policy of central bank. The thesis deals with a procyclical action of commercial banks and contemporary tools of central bank with their limited effectiveness. Furthermore, the thesis analyses the possible adjustments of monetary policy with the emphasis on the macroprudential policy and its individual credit indicators. The end of the thesis deals with the method of credit rationing and with the imbalance between demand and supply at the credit market of non-financial corporations, which is modelled using the technique of disequilibrium model.
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Consumption, price expectations and deflatively-recessive spiral
Plný, Petr ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Tran, Van Quang (referee)
This thesis examines the relationship between price expectations and current consumption. Especially, whether the postponement of final consumption expenditure by households, as a result of their declining price expectations; which may be a deflatively-recessive spiral starter; coincides with economic theory and practice. Based on this, appropriate economic policy recommendations can be drawn. The analysis in the framework of intertemporal consumer model of two periods extended by inflation and the risk confirms this hypothesis. Price expectations positively affect current consumption through the intertemporal substitution effect of real interest rate changes. However, certain assumptions must be fulfilled. Especially, the economy must be in a fixed nominal interest rate environment, the substitution effect must not be offset by the effect of a change in the expected real disposable income or the income effect of the change in the real interest rate and the households must have a higher disposable income so that they can afford to postpone consumption. These findings coincide with the conclusions of the empirical analyzes mentioned in this thesis.
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Analysis of the development of the exchange rate on the basis of uncovered interest rate parity
Macháček, Marek ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Obešlo, František (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis is based on the empirical analysis to identify the relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rates in selected countries and verify the validity of the uncovered interest rate parity. In the first part, the author deals with basic theoretical and exchange rate determinants from a fundamental analysis point of view, which attempts to explain the causality between these two variables. The actual analysis was performed at three levels on monthly time series from 2010 to 2016. Graphical analysis was selected as the first stage of the analysis, also including verification of the validity of the Fisher International Effect. Later, regression and vector autoregressive analysis followed. However, the conclusions of the individual empirical parts show that the exchange rate is determined by many factors, not only by the interest rate differential, as assumed the theory of uncovered interest rate parity. These results are also related to the low quality of the estimated models. Uncovered interest rate parity has been confirmed in very few cases, but none of the monitored currency pairs has been validated at all three levels of empirical analysis at the same time. The work offers valuable insight into the trend appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rates at the positive interest rate differential in the selected period.
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Evaluation of predictive ability of selected exchange rate models based on statistical methods
Sommer, Josef ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Tran, Van Quang (referee)
This diploma thesis evaluates out-of-sample predictive ability of exchange rate models. The first part of the thesis summarizes existing empirical findings about exchange rate predictability and describes exchange rate models chosen to be evaluated. The second part of the thesis evaluates predictive ability of purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity, monetary model and Taylor rule model. The exchange rate models are evaluated on CZK/EUR and CZK/USD currency pairs. The analysis is made using quarterly data from 1999 to 2013, while 2009 to 2013 period is reserved for forecast evaluation. The predictive ability of exchange rate models is evaluated in one quarter, one year and three years horizons. The exchange rate models are specified in first differences and estimated by ordinary least squares method. The forecasts are made using rolling regression. The exchange rate models are evaluated using RMSE, Theil's U, CW test and direction of change criterion. The diploma thesis concludes with description of own empirical findings.
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