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Banks' Income Modelling
Lelovská, Adriána ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Havránková, Zuzana (referee)
Bank profitability is one of the key inputs for macroprudential surveillance. Although we may find extensive empirical literature analyzing banks' performance, there is to our knowledge no study examining whole banking sectors. This thesis contributes to the existing research twofold. Firstly, we develop a banks' income model that considers banking sectors as a whole, using a sample of 40 countries in the period of 1997 to 2011. Secondly, we implement this model to two different restrictions of our data sample testing the model's applicability. We explore three hypotheses. Firstly, we test whether macroeconomic, industry-specific and bank-specific determinants are significant drivers of bank profitability. The final banks' income model is estimated via a dynamic GMM specification, consisting of proxies for the level of economic development, capitalization, interest-earning activities, credit quality and two lags of profitability capturing its persistency. The hypothesis is rejected since we do not find evidence of a significant industry-specific indicator. The second and third hypotheses restrict our sample to a time period before the financial crisis and banking sectors comprising only commercial banks, respectively. We conclude that the model is robust with regards to the chosen time period but...
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Systemic Risks Assessment and Systemic Events Prediction: Early Warning System Design for the Czech Republic
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14 countries both advanced and developing. Firstly, Financial Stress Index is built aggregating indicators from equity, foreign exchange, security and money markets in order to identify starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Secondly, the selection of early warning indicators for assessment and prediction of systemic risks is undertaken in a two- step approach; relevant prediction horizons for each indicator are found by means of a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging method to identify the most useful indicators. Next, logit models containing useful indicators only are estimated on the panel while their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is assessed by a variety of measures. Finally, having applied the constructed EWS for both horizons to the Czech Republic it was found that even though models for both horizons perform very well in-sample, i.e. both predict 100% of crises, only the long model attains the maximum utility of 0,5 as...
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The influence of housing price development on household balance sheet empirical analysis for the Czech Republic
Dvořáková, Sylvie ; Seidler, Jakub (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This study describes the topic of how housing prices influence households' consumption. We test the wealth effect hypothesis which postulates that change in housing or stock market wealth increases consumption. We provide empirical analysis of Czech aggregate data for 1998-2009 by combining the public databases of the Czech National Bank and Czech Statistical Office. To the best of our knowledge, this analysis on aggregate data is the first of its kind in the Czech Republic. We analyse the effect of change in housing prices on the consumption of both durable and non- durable goods employing the VAR and VEC models on quarterly seasonally adjusted data. We find a positive effect of both wealth components on both types of consumption. In case of non-durable goods consumption we estimate the cointegrating vector and conclude that the elasticity of non- durable goods consumption with respect to housing wealth (0.18) is over three times greater than with respect to stock market wealth (0.05). Keywords Households, housing prices, consumption, housing wealth, stock market wealth, VAR model, VECM
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Stress testing of the banking sector
Procházková, Jana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Todica, Doina (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with stress testing of the banking sector. Stress testing as a risk measurement technique has attracted much attention especially in recent years due to the increased instabilities in financial markets. This work defines two objectives. The aim of theoretical section is to provide a complex survey of stress testing principles and methodologies and to contribute to a better understanding of why stress tests are employed. The empirical section focuses on the credit risk in the Czech Republic. It tries to estimate whether there is an empirical relationship between the quality of credit portfolio of the Czech banking system and the development in key macroeconomic variables. For this purpose the econometric model of vector autoregression has been applied.
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Stress Testing the Italian Banking System during the Global Financial Crisis
Messina, Jacopo ; Gapko, Petr (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This study performs a stress testing exercise on the Italian banking system in view of the 2007 financial crisis which was triggered by the crash of subprime mortgages. At the base of the global financial crisis was a failure of finan- cial regulators to quantify the accumulation of endogenous risks. Following the crisis, stress testing has acquired particular emphasis in the field of risk measurement under the Basel II supervisory framework. An econometric rela- tionship between the probability of default and the macroeconomic indicators is modeled according to the Merton approach for structural analysis using data on the Italian banking system. A latent factor model is employed to under- stand the dependence of the credit risk on the changes in the macroeconomic environment. The resulting relationship is exploited to compute the capital requirement under stressed conditions in order to draw inference about the resilience of the Italian banking system. JEL Classification G0, G01, G17, G10, C50, C22 Keywords Financial crisis, macroeconomic stress testing, credit risk, latent-factor model Author's e-mail jacomessi@yahoo.it Supervisor's e-mail petr.gapko@seznam.cz Abstrakt Klasifikace JEL G0, G01, G17, G10, C50, C22 Klíčová slova Financial crisis, macroeconomic stress test- ing, credit risk,...
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Procyclicality in Basel II and Basel III
Šobotníková, Petra ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
The term procyclicality refers to the ability of a system to amplify business cycles. The recent financial crisis has revealed that the current regulatory framework, Basel II, affects the business cycle in exactly that manner. The newly published Basel III therefore sought to include tools that would mitigate the procyclical nature of regulatory framework. The aim of the thesis is to analyze whether such tools are effective and whether the procyclicality under Basel III has been mitigated when compared to Basel II. In order to conduct such analysis we employ a simple model with the households and firms sector. Using the OLS estimation method we estimate the sensitivity of Basel risk weights to the business cycle under both Basel II and Basel III conditions. As the Basel III framework has been published only recently, there are few studies that would analyze its effect on procyclicality. The main contribution of this thesis consists of implementation of Basel III countercyclical tools and the comparison between both frameworks. The thesis further contributes to the existing literature by conducting the analysis on the data for the Visegrád Group, that is for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. JEL Classification E32, E44, E58, G21 Keywords procyclicality, Basel II, Basel III, banking...
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Interbank contagion under the Basel III regulatory framework
Chleboun, Jakub ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Lešanovská, Jitka (referee)
This study assesses the impact of the Basel III regulatory framework on interbank contagion. It focuses on the direct interbank contagion that spreads via interbank foreign claims among national banking sectors. A balance sheet-based network model employs the quarterly consolidated banking statistics, collected by the Bank for International Settlements, to simulate the consequences of credit and funding shock under stressed market conditions. Compared to the Basel II, the Basel III regulatory framework reduces the probability of interbank contagion (following a simulated default of one banking sector) from 31% to 14% and lowers the impact of contagion by 63% in terms of average loss for a banking sector. The simulations under both regulatory frameworks show that relatively smaller banking sectors can trigger severe interbank contagion comparable to large banking sectors. Throughout the 2005-2009 period, the Basel III regulatory framework stabilizes the fluctuations of the scope of interbank contagion.
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Linkages between financial sector and real output - empirical evidence from the Czech Republic
Tomis, Martin ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis studies various ways in which the financial sector may affect the real economy. Particular attention is devoted to the bank lending channel of monetary transmission which amplifies monetary policy through changes in the supply of bank loans. We analyze the theoretical foundations of this channel, review international empirical literature and identify characteristic features of Czech financial system. Due to the important role of bank loans in the Czech Republic and the limited availability of alternative sources of finance, we hypothesize that the channel should be operative in the Czech Republic. Using a VEC model we analyze aggregate data for 2001-2011. Impulse response functions are then used to identify responses of the lending rate and the amount of loans to a monetary shock. Based on these responses we conclude the bank lending channel was operative.
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Stress Testing of the Banking Sector in Emerging Markets: A Case of the Selected Balkan Countries
Vukelić, Tatjana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Mejstřík, Michal (referee)
Stress testing is a macro-prudential analytical method of assessing financial system's resilience to adverse events. This thesis describes the methodology of stress tests and illustrates stress testing for credit and market risks on real bank-by-bank data in two Balkan countries: Croatia and Serbia. Credit risk is captured by macroeconomic credit risk models that estimate default rates of corporate and household sectors. Setting-up the framework for countries that were not much covered in former studies and that face limited availability of data has been the main challenge of the thesis. The outcome can help to reveal possible risks to financial stability. The methods described in the thesis can be further developed and applied to emerging markets that suffer from similar data limitations. JEL Classification: E37, G21, G28 Keywords: banking, credit risk, default rate, macro stress testing, market risk
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Estimation of VaR in Risk Management by Employing Economic News in GARCH Models
Šindelka, Ondřej ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
We examined the influence of news, related to the main central banks, on the conditional volatility of the stock returns of eighteen major European banks. We model their conditional volatility with GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH models plugging in variables representing news. As a practical application we evaluate whether applying the news into the volatility modeling improves the performance of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) measure for given banks. The two types of news variables we use are constructed from the press releases of main central banks and from the search query at Factiva Dow Jones news database. The information contained in news is proxied by daily news counts. Using the EGARCH setup we are able to model individual volatility reaction functions of the banks' stock returns to different news variables. We show that the content, origin of the news and also the amount of news (news count) matter to the conditional volatility behavior. The results confirm that increase in the amount of media coverage causes increase in volatility. Certain news types have calming effect (speeches of the central banks' representatives) on volatility while others stir it (monetary news). Finally, we conclude that adding the news into the modeling only slightly improves the VaR out-of-sample performance.
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