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The Impact of a Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates Environment on Solvency And Profitability of Insurance Companies
Dorofti, Cristina ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Hausenblas, Václav (referee)
The insurance industry is a major component of the economy by virtue of the amount of premiums it collects and the scale of its investments. Interest rate risk constitutes the greatest individual source of risk for insurance companies, especially following the most recent global financial turmoil, when ECB and other Central Banks across Europe have steadily been cutting the base rate in order to cope with the deteriorated economic environment. In this paper, we examine the effect of the macroeconomic environment, notably that of the interest rates, on life and non-life European insurance companies profitability ratios by employing a dynamic panel regression with GMM to a cross-country aggregated data. Our empirical results reveal that decreasing market rates, intensifying inflationary pressure and poor equity market performance are robust indicators of a diminishing insurance rentability, especially when we model using ROE. The estimates of ROA models are inconclusive as we believe that the complexity of this ratio requiers a more in-depth analysis. Additionaly we analyse a smaller group of life insurance companies' on their Embedded Value's sensitivity to several potential negative shocks. To the author's best knowledge, those are the first implied macroeconomic estimates on insurance companies'...
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Counterparty credit risk modelling
Volek, Mikoláš ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
Counterparty credit risk is an important type of financial risk. The importance of proper counterparty risk management became most apparent in the wake of the 2008 series of failures of several large banks. Correlation of market factors is an important issue in the calculation of CVA. A notable case of correlation is wrong-way risk which occurs whenever the probability of default of the counterparty is positively correlated with exposure. The basic formulas for CVA and basic counterparty credit risk models do not account for wrong-way risk because its modeling is nontrivial. This thesis aims to answer how well can the impact of wrong-way risk on CVA be approximated with an add-on which only depends on correlation between the price of the underlying asset and the credit spread of the counterparty. The thesis is supplemented by a fully documented implementation of the model in the Mathematica software.
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The Impact of the Macroeconomic Environment on Insurance Companies
Čepeláková, Lenka ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Brechler, Josef (referee)
i Abstract: This thesis assesses the impact of economic, institutional and demographic factors on the life and non-life gross written premiums of insurance companies. A dynamic panel data regression using the system generalized method of mo- ments is applied on data of 29 European countries collected by EIOPA covering the period from 2005 to 2013. The results reveal that economic and institutio- nal factors drive both life and non-life insurance industry. On the other hand, we cannot confirm that demographic factors are significant determinants of the growth in GWPs. Subsequently, the hypothesis that there are substantial cross-countries differences among the importance of different macroeconomic determinants on the insurance sector development is explored and confirmed. This work shines new light on the development of the quantitative macro- prudential framework used to determine different economic scenarios affecting insurance companies' balance sheets. Moreover, a broader set of panel data and more variables explaining the growth in insurance sector bring new contributi- ons to the current discussion in academic literature.
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Investigation of the dynamics between monetary and macroprudential policies
Kireichenko, Kateryna ; Jašová, Martina (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis studies the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy using a DSGE model with real and financial frictions under government and financial shock scenarios. Countercyclical capital requirements are used as a macroprudential policy tool combined with a Taylor rule for monetary policy. In the case of the government shock, our findings indicate that policies' coordination reduces the volatility of the output vis-à-vis a "monetary policy only" regime. Analysis of financial shocks indicates that monetary policy alone can suffice to ensure financial stability. Lastly, welfare analysis suggests there is no optimal policy combination for all agents and highlights a redistributive effect of both shocks, showing that policy that is beneficial for one group of agents can decrease welfare for another. JEL Classification E44, E52, E61 Keywords monetary policy, macroprudential policy, capital requirements, financial stability Author's e-mail kateryna.kireichenko@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail martina.jasova@fsv.cuni.cz
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Manipulation of basel risk weights: revising the Czech banking sector
Nováčková, Tereza ; Andrlíková, Petra (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis provides the empirical analysis of the second Basel regulatory framework implementation in Czech banks together with the economic performance inspection of the Czech banking sector. With Basel II, banks face the possibility to implement internal models to calculate capital adequacy related to bank's risk exposure. This possibility opens a discussion of its economic effect, transparency and potential misuse of the internal models. The empirical part of this thesis examines how the profitability and the reported riskiness change with internal models implementation. Furthermore, the role of cost efficiency to bank's profitability and risk adequacy ratio is evaluated. The panel data analysis of all Czech banks over a period 2006 to 2012 demonstrates that internal models for capital adequacy calculation increase bank's profitability together with a decrease of the reported riskiness measured by risk weighted assets. Moreover, the cost efficiency has proven to be a significant indicator of both profitability and capital adequacy ratio.
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Financial Stability Issues and Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector
Hauryliuk, Nadzeya ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to provide an overview of risk and vulnerabilities for financial stability of the European Insurance sector. The methods and principles of risk assessment are examined, as well as their application for the insurance sector. The current macroeconomic situation and its impact on insurers' financial stability is described. Downward changes of interest rates are identified as the biggest current risk. This results from a system-wide stress test conducted by EIOPA (European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority), analysis of sensitivities published by several big European Insurers published on a yearly basis and finally from an econometric analysis of the relationship between market data and changes in macroeconomic variables. Keywords financial stability, stress testing, insurance sector, insurance risks
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Determinants of NPLs at the aggregate level: A comparative approach for middle and high income countries
Sandrovschi, Violeta ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
This thesis investigates the key determinants of the Non-performing loans (NPLs) comparing two groups of countries from Southeastern and Western Europe, with two different levels of economic development. We try to find empirical evidence and estimate whether the determinants of NPL ratio are different for the middle and high income countries. Applying panel data models for 14 countries overall, and using the regressions of subsampled countries, we analyze the importance of the determinants at the aggregate level. The final results show that all variables considered are significant, except inflation rate under all specifications and FDI when the subsampled dummy variables are used. As for the specifications of the exchange rate determinant, we conclude that the NPL ratio is negatively and significantly influenced in the export dominant middle income economies. An additional non-economic variable, such as the educational index, constructed at the national level, is found to increase the NPL ratio. Concerning the institutional quality index, averaging all six institutional indicators, this determinant does not show a consistent result across different data sample specifications.
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Impact of Stress Testing on Bank Risk
Dítě, Martin ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis studies the impact of macro stress testing on the riskiness of the participating banks. We use a dataset on 48 banks participating in either or both of the 2010 and 2011 EU exercises performed by the CEBS/EBA and 17 peer banks that did not participate. We find that early announcement of the 2010 stress test led to a temporary capitalization increase for the participating banks. We also find that disclosure of the 2011 exercise results caused a decline in capitalization for the participating banks. The results indicate that the way stress tests are prepared and communicated can strongly influence how banks react in terms of capitalization levels. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Interbank contagion under the Basel III regulatory framework
Chleboun, Jakub ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Lešanovská, Jitka (referee)
This study assesses the impact of the Basel III regulatory framework on interbank contagion. It focuses on the direct interbank contagion that spreads via interbank foreign claims among national banking sectors. A balance sheet-based network model employs the quarterly consolidated banking statistics, collected by the Bank for International Settlements, to simulate the consequences of credit and funding shock under stressed market conditions. Compared to the Basel II, the Basel III regulatory framework reduces the probability of interbank contagion (following a simulated default of one banking sector) from 31% to 14% and lowers the impact of contagion by 63% in terms of average loss for a banking sector. The simulations under both regulatory frameworks show that relatively smaller banking sectors can trigger severe interbank contagion comparable to large banking sectors. Throughout the 2005-2009 period, the Basel III regulatory framework stabilizes the fluctuations of the scope of interbank contagion.
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Financial Stress Transmission from Developed to Emerging Countries
Gavrilenco, Nicolae ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
Charles University in Prague Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies MASTER THESIS Financial Stress Transmission from Developed to Emerging Countries Author: Bc. Nicolae Gavrilenco Supervisor: doc. Roman Horvàth, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2012/2013 Abstract In this research we have analyzed the financial system as it is today, describing the implications financial innovation had and the impact of the recent financial crisis. We tried to understand the nature of the financial stress and its measures. In the context of world financial integration it was also necessary to have a review upon the financial stress transmission channels from developed to emerging countries, determining the linkages and their measures. We employed a structural VAR model to determine whether there is empirical proof of financial Stress transmission from developed to emerging countries and see if financial integration represents the decisive factor in financial stress transmission. Our results suggest that there is a significant impact of financial stress in developed countries on the output of emerging ones. However we can observe an increasing influence of country-specific factors in explaining the variation in the rest of the variable of our model. The results also indicate the level of international financial...
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