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Cross-Border Contagion: An Empirical Analysis of the Current Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe
Žáková, Kristýna ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Mertlík, Pavel (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to examine cross-border contagion effects during the 2007-09 crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and from all the possible propagation channels, it chooses to focus on cross-border bank loans. It tries to discover which global and local factors had significant influence on the changes in bank loans from banks in source (lending) countries to banks, as well as households, corporations and government in host (borrowing) countries. The main research method is a panel data regression model. The empirical results suggest that both local and global factors had influence on the changes in cross-border loans, i.e. helped to spread the 2007-09 crisis to CEE. The significant local factors were macroeconomic and financial characteristics of both source and host countries, such as their GDP growth differential, interest rate differential, FDI, or profitability and health of the banking sector. The significant global factors were the expected market volatility and investors' risk appetite/aversion which was an indicator of "pure" contagion. The main contribution of this thesis lies in its focus on CEE and the analysis of investors' behavior based on their changing risk appetite.
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Taylor rules and interest rate setting of the Czech National Bank
Hrachovec, Miloš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper studies role of the so called Taylor rules in the complex procedure of interest rate setting. The Czech National Bank is described as the monetary authority in the Czech Republic, then optimal monetary policy and form of monetary policy rule is discussed, yielding conditions on the optimal rule. These conditions are then applied to the forward-looking reaction function of the Czech National Bank and the role of this reaction function within the Czech National Bank's monetary policy is addressed. Last section presents empirical estimates of a Taylor-like rule for the Czech National Bank and shows variability of possible utilization for the modified Taylor rule.
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Basel III: Evaluation and Impact in the Czech Republic
Gleta, Jakub ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
The thesis is focused on content and impact of the new Basel Capital Accord, commonly known as Basel III. These rules react to recent development in global financial markets and introduce some substantial changes into regulatory approach, which include changes to the definition and required amount of regulatory capital and presents new liquidity requirements. The thesis then assesses new rules form two points of view. First, a quantitative model is constructed that predicts the impact of new rules on capital adequacy of four major Czech banks based on default rates data. In the second part of the analysis, institutional impact of new regulation is stressed, namely the question of how new rules fit within the theoretical framework of optimal regulatory architecture and what pitfalls they have. The thesis is unique in the eclectic nature of its approach, whereby two seemingly disparate approaches oppose each other and an attempt at synthesis is presented. Keywords Banking regulation, Basel II, Basel III, capital adequacy, capital accords, regulatory impact analysis, credit risk JEL classification G21, G28
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Foreign direct investment spillovers and tax havens
Ehrlich, Matěj ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
Offshore activities of multinational enterprises challenged the traditi- onal measures of foreign direct investment. One of the consequences is that productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment likely differ for offshore and onshore investors. This heterogeneity is; however, vir- tually unexplored in the existing literature on productivity spillovers. The analysis in this thesis sheds light on the onshore/offshore hetero- geneity and finds compelling evidence that investments from offshore jurisdictions (commonly referred to as tax havens) are associated with fewer productivity spillovers to the supplier sectors.
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The Evolution of Optimum Currency Area Index: Post-crisis Perspective
Kadlecová, Pavlína ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper estimates the determinants of exchange rate variability for 21 developed economies in 1980-1998. The results show that traditional criteria implied by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, such as business cycle synchronisation, trade linkages and economy size, determine to a large extent bilateral exchange rate variability. Using the ordinary least squares estimation, we compute OCA indices for European economies vis-à-vis Germany and identify countries showing consistently large or little signs of convergence. We find that since 1998, most European developed economies have converged to Germany whether or not they are using the euro, suggesting that structural similarity is not driven solely by monetary integration. Our results from the model estimated by the generalized method of moments suggest that two additional criteria reflecting labour market flexibility and private credit growth are significant in explaining the exchange rate variability and lead to a ranking of countries different from the traditional approach. We find a positive relationship between the OCA indices and GDP decline during the economic crisis of 2008-09, which further supports the view that the OCA index is a useful indicator of the candidates' readiness to join the Euro Area. We apply the results to the...
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Estimating implicit inflation target of the ECB
Melioris, Libor ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
Existing estimations of implicit inflation target are primarily based on the assumption of parameter stability over time horizon. This work relaxes this assumption and proposes alternative framework based on time-varying parameter model. We aim on behaviour of European Central Bank in order to compare its official proclamations of price stability levels with our implicit estimations. We will also examine how two pillar strategy of European Central Bank is practically used.
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Connectedness and spillover effects between forex and stock markets: Evidence from Scandinavia
Mkhitaryan, Arman ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
In this thesis, we study the return and volatility spillovers between forex and stock markets in Scandinavian countries employing recently developed method- ology of spillover indices. Those measures are based on forecast error variance decomposition of generalized vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. This allows us to estimate both total and directional spillovers. Moreover, frequency connect- edness analysis is conducted by decomposing the spillover indices into frequency bands, corresponding to short-, medium- and long-run connectedness. We used daily data for major stock market indices and exchange rates of domestic cur- rency towards US dollar for Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Our data spans from February 2002 till July 2018 that covers turmoil periods of global fi- nancial crisis in 2007-2009, European sovereign debt crisis 2010-2013 and Brexit referendum in mid 2016. Our empirical analysis reveals that Norwegian financial markets do not contribute much to both return and volatility spillovers. On the other hand, euro and Danish FX market perform very similarly, by exhibiting the highest spillover contributions for both returns and volatility. Furthermore, distinct increasing trends in spillovers are revealed during the turmoil periods for most of the markets. From frequency...
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An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity Situation and Interbank Rates in the Czech Republic during Global Crisis
Lešanovská, Jitka ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; von Terzi, Martina (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on the development of the interbank market liquidity and interest rates in the Czech interbank market with special focus on the period of global crisis. We analyze determinants of the interbank interest rates and their development with respect to the key monetary policy rate. We explain the significant departure of the interbank interest rates from the key monetary policy rate (impairment of monetary policy transmission) during the global crisis by an increase in risk premia on interbank lending. The source of the risk premia is decomposed into the individual components such as liquidity risk, counterparty risk, foreign influence and other factors. Their contribution to the overall risk premia over time during the global crisis is analyzed. We find that the liquidity risk was the key determinant of tensions in the Czech interbank market in the beginning of the global crisis. However, its influence weakened over time while the role of counterparty risk increased. Keywords: interbank market, liquidity, interest rates, crisis, risk premia, credit risk, liquidity risk, counterparty risk JEL classification: G190, G210
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Privatization through FDI in the Czech Republic: Effects of Privatization Properties on the Companies' Performances
Nachtigall, Jakub ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Kolouchová, Petra (referee)
This thesis is focused on the large scale privatization in the Czech Republic. It brings the real values of investment into the discussion of direct effects of FDI. A unique dataset obtained in the archive of the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic allows us to employ other interesting properties of the privatization in the comparison of the performance of the FDI recipients during the 1997- 98 crisis. A synthetic method approach is used to estimate the most similar competitor of each FDI recipient and control for different situations the MNE affiliates were prior the crisis. The thesis has also a historical contribution as it discusses some yet unknown features of the privatization through FDI during the large scale privatization. Further, the underlying theory of FDI, FDI flows into the Czech Republic, the Czech privatization process and macroeconomic background are described. JEL Classification D24, F21, F23, P31 Keywords Czech Republic, Foreign Direct Investment, Pri- vatization, Total Factor Productivity, Transi- tions of Socialist Enterprises Author's e-mail jakub.nachtigall@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail adam.gersl@cnb.cz
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