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Political Cycles and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators in the Central Europe
Botka, Jan ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Buliskeria, Nino (referee)
This study examines the impact of the political cycle on macroeconomic indica- tors in Central Europe, with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Thirty-nine Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models were constructed using data from 1998 to 2022 aiming to apply the Political Business Cycle (PBC) theory. It is the frst time the VAR model has been used in this context for most of the selected countries. As the main variables in the model, subject to potential infuence by political cycles, were chosen real GDP, infation and unemployment. The results showed that no consistent signifcant relationship exists across all coun- tries, with each nation displaying varying connections and occasional contra- dictions to the presupposed theory. Nevertheless, certain associations between the political cycle and macroeconomic indicators were observed in individual countries, supporting the presence of the PBC to some extent in the Czech Re- public, Hungary, and Austria. Conversely, no evidence or even contradictory results were found for the PBC in Slovakia, Poland, and Germany. Addition- ally, the presence of the "partisan" political cycle was identifed in Hungary but not in the Czech Republic, Germany, or Austria. Poland's signifcant results exhibited signs opposite to those expected. This research opens new...
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Lockdown Policies and Firms' Investments in a Two-Period Macroeconomic Model
Fencl, Tomáš ; Gregor, Martin (advisor) ; Buliskeria, Nino (referee)
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the implementation of lockdown policies was often accompanied by some level of commitment toward its development or termination. This thesis introduces multiple gradually improving two-period macroeconomic models which induce a time inconsistency problem regarding the lockdown policy choice. The effect of the policymaker's commitment is studied and analyzed as a possible solution to this problem. Aside from thoughts concerning directly the construction of the models, for instance, the reasoning behind its short-term nature or the importance of the shape of input functions, this thesis evaluates the policy commitment as an efficient tool. It further emphasizes the importance of the commitment's credibility. 1
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Independence and Transmission of Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies: The Case of Canada and the Czech Republic
Budinský, Jan ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Buliskeria, Nino (referee)
The question of whether a small open economy (SOE) with highly integrated financial markets can shield itself from the influence of foreign monetary policy and preserve its monetary independence has been the subject of extensive research over the last decades. The growing integration of world economies owing to globalization, the impacts of recent global pandemic on them leading to the use of unconventional monetary policies, and the consequent high levels of inflation across the globe have highlighted the importance of further study of this problematic. This thesis focuses on two small open economies from different currency areas, Canada and the Czech Republic, and evaluates the monetary policies of their central banks, concentrating primarily on their independence, secondarily on the transmission mechanism of the respective policies, and also on their foreign exchange reserves. A comparative analysis of these two countries and their monetary policies on such scale and complexity has not yet been made before. The results of cointegration testing of vector autoregression models consisting of three-month interbank interest rates representing the monetary policies of the countries under investigation revealed that both Canada and the Czech Republic exhibited a considerable degree of monetary...
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Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools - Description and Evaluation of their Efficiency
Bandžak, Denis ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Buliskeria, Nino (referee)
This thesis examines the role of unconventional monetary policy tools during and after the global financial crisis with a particular focus on three main parts - their description, implementation and efficiency. By introducing a thorough discussion based on both past and most recent papers on this topic, we provide an updated view on the classification of individual unconventional monetary policy tools which is often used inaccurately by the current literature. We further enrich the discussion by describing different strategies which central banks used before and after the global financial crisis along with the future plans and tendency of central banks in monetary policy. We conclude the thesis by our own analysis of the effects of quantitative easing on GDP and CPI using a Bayesian vector autoregression model with sign restrictions applied on Japan, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. We find a more pronounced and significant effect of quantitative easing on GDP and CPI for the UK and the US than for the Eurozone and Japan. Nevertheless, our findings have to be considered with utmost care as the model is very simplified and sensitive to the parameters chosen. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools, Quantitative Easing, Bayesian Vector Autoregression
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