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A BVAR Model for Forecasting of Czech Inflation
Brázdik, František ; Franta, Michal
Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVAR) have turned out to be useful for medium-term macroeconomic forecasting. Several features of the Czech economy strengthen the rationale for using this approach. These include in particular the short time series available and uncertainty about long-run trends. We compare forecasts based on a small-scale mean-adjusted BVAR with the official forecasts published by the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the period 2008q3–2016q4. The comparison demonstrates that the BVAR approach can provide more precise inflation forecasts over the monetary policy horizon. For other macroeconomic variables, the CNB forecasts either outperform or are comparable with the forecasts based on the BVAR model.
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Essays on Mathematical Methods for Economics
Brázdik, František ; Kejak, Michal (advisor) ; Wieland, Volker (referee) ; Halická, Margaréta (referee)
In the first chapter, by introduction of output augmentation and input reduction I extend additive models for stochastic data envelopment analysis (SDEA), which were developed by Li (1998) to handle the noise in the data. Applying the linearization procedure by Li (1998) the linearized versions of models are derived. In the empirical part of this chapter, the efficiency scores of West Java rice farms are computed. The computed scores are compared to the stochastic frontier approach scores by Druska and Horrace (2004) and weak ranking consistency with results of stochastic frontier method is observed. The objectives of the second chapter are to evaluate technical and scale efficiency of rice farms in West Java and to identify determinants affecting farms' efficiency. Data Envelopment Analysis is used for estimation of technical efficiency scores. Additionally, Tobit regression is used to explain the variation in the efficiency scores by farm-specific factors. I conclude that the farm size is one of the most important factors of farm technical efficiency and that high land fragmentation was the main source of farm inefficiency during the final period of intensification era, known as Green Revolution. In the last, chapter I examine macroeconomic stability and the properties of business cycles in the model with...
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Exchange Rate Dynamics and its Effect on Macroeconomic Volatility in Selected CEE Countries
Audzei, Volha ; Brázdik, František
To understand the potential for forming an optimum currency area it is important to investigate the origins of macroeconomic volatility. We focus on the contribution of exchange rate shocks to macroeconomic volatility in selected Central and Eastern European countries. The contribution of the exchange rate shock relative to other shocks allows us to evaluate whether the Exchange rate is a source of volatility or a buffer against shocks as the theory suggests. The identification of the contributions is based on variance decomposition in two-country structural VAR models, which are identified by the sign restriction method. We identify countries where shocks are predominantly symmetric relative to the effective counterpart and countries where the contribution of real exchange rate shocks is strong. In general, for all the countries considered the results are consistent with the real exchange rate having a shock-absorbing nature. Finally, a significant role of symmetric monetary policy shocks in movements in real exchange rates is found for some of the countries.
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The Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber
Audzei, Volha ; Brázdik, František
The traditional view of the exchange rate as a shock absorber has been challenged by a number of studies. Therefore, it is not surprising to identify economies in which exchange rate movements fuel business cycle volatility. We assess whether the Czech economy belongs to this group. We analyze the relations between the exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables within the VAR framework using the sign restriction technique as proposed by Uhlig (2005). The results of variance decomposition of the exchange rate do not allow us to reject a shock-absorbing role of the exchange rate for the Czech economy. To assess the robustness of the results, we also examined the relation between monetary policy and exchange rate volatility. We conclude that the shock-absorbing nature of the exchange rate prevails over shock generating one.
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Evaluating a Structural Model Forecast: Decomposition Approach
Brázdik, František ; Humplová, Zuzana ; Kopřiva, František
Macroeconomic forecasters are often criticized for a lack of transparency when presenting their forecasts. To deter such criticism, the transparency of the forecasting process should be enhanced by tracing and explaining the effects of data revisions and expert judgment updates on variations in the forecasts. This paper presents a forecast decomposition analysis framework designed to examine the differences between two forecasts generated by a linear structural model. The differences between the forecasts considered can be decomposed into the contributions of various forecast elements, such as the effect of new data or expert judgment. The framework allows us to evaluate the contributions of forecast assumptions in the presence of expert judgment applied in the expected way. The simplest application of this framework examines alternative forecast scenarios with different forecast assumptions. Next, a one-period difference between the forecasts’ initial periods is added to the examination. Finally, a replication of the Inflation Forecast Evaluation presented in Inflation Report III/2013 is created to illustrate the full capabilities of the decomposition framework.
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Expected Regime Change: Transition Toward Nominal Exchange Rate Stability
Brázdik, František
This work presents an extension of a small open economy DSGE model allowing the transition toward a monetary policy regime aimed at exchange rate stability to be described. The model is estimated using the Bayesian technique to fit the properties of the Czech economy. In the scenarios assessed, the monetary authority announces and changes its policy so that it is focused solely on stabilizing the nominal exchange rate after a specific transition period is over. Four representative forms of monetary policy are followed to evaluate their properties over the announced transition period. Welfare loss functions assessing macroeconomic stability are defined, allowing the implications of the transition period regime choice for macroeconomic stability to be assessed. As these experiments show, exchange rate stabilization over the transition period does not deliver the lowest welfare loss. Under the assumptions taken, the strict inflation-targeting regime is identified as the best-performing regime for short transition periods. However, it can be concluded that for longer transition periods the monetary policy regime should respond to changes in the exchange rate.
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What Central Banks Can Learn from It
Brázdik, František ; Hlaváček, Michal ; Maršál, Aleš
This survey gives insight into the ongoing research in financial frictions modeling. The recent financial turmoil has fueled interest in operationalizing financial frictions concepts and introducing them into tools for policy makers. The rapid growth of the literature on these issues is the motivation for our review of the presented approaches. The empirical facts that motivate the inclusion of financial frictions are surveyed.
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