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The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Price of Financial Assets
Říha, Jakub ; Moravcová, Michala (advisor) ; Džmuráňová, Hana (referee)
This thesis investigates the effect of Czech macroeconomic news announcements and Czech National Bank (CNB) communication on the price of financial assets and its volatility. As the financial assets we selected the EUR/CZK and USD/CZK exchange rates and also the Prague stock PX Index. To analyze the aforesaid effect we employed the GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models, each with Normal and Student's t error distribution. The main results were that the CNB's communication indeed have significant effect on the price of all three examined assets and surprisingly also tend to increase their volatility. Also the macroeconomic announcements significantly influence examined assets however significant macroeconomic indicators differ for each asset. The most influencing ones are: CPI, 1YPRIBOR and the unemployment rate. Another finding of our research was that volatility of examined time series data shows the characteristics of leverage effect, volatility clustering and persistence. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Does the choice of method of forecast of index stock returns and the choice of investment strategy depend on index's industry affiliation?
Dobryashkina, Victoria ; Moravcová, Michala (advisor) ; Benčík, Daniel (referee)
Bibliography Reference DOBRYASHKINA, Victoria. Does the choice of method of forecast of index stock returns and the choice of investment strategy depend on index's industry affiliation? Prague 2015. 57 pages. Bachelor thesis (Bc.) Charles University, Faculty of Social Science, Institute of Economic Studies. Supervisor Michala Moravcova. Author's Email: Dobryashkina@gmail.com Supervisor's Email: Moravcovamichala@gmail.com Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to analyze and reveal if there is any dependence of index stock return valuation method on index's industry affiliation. The question about profitable strategy to react to valuation method's forecasts is also investigated. I focus on three methods of valuation: technical analysis, time series forecast and combination of rules from both technical and times series forecast rules, and test them on 10 Dow Jones Industrial Indices. Double-or-out strategy is compared to buy-and-hold strategy by estimation of its excess return. I found no dependence of choice of method on index's industry affiliation. However, the double-or-out strategy was proved to outperform buy-and-hold strategy in all of the industries. Keywords Stock Valuation Methods, Trend Prediction Analyses, Technical analysis, Fundamental analysis, Methods of valuation, Time series forecast,...
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Macroprudential regulation of the housing market
Petrouš, Michal ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Moravcová, Michala (referee)
Housing market has a considerable impact on the macroeconomic stability. There is an attempt to regulate housing market using a set of macroprudential tools. The first aim of this thesis is to describe and compare macroprudential regulation aiming at the contract between lenders and borrowers in the European Union and Norway. The second aim is to assess the influence of central banks in macroprudential policy-making on the probability that these instruments are implemented. The probability is estimated using a probit model. The comparison shows that there are considerable differences in implemented regulation between individual countries and that countries with high proportion of foreign currency denominated loans use macroprudential measures to mitigate borrowing in foreign currencies. Using the data from the European union and Norway, statistically significant influence of central bank involvement was not identified. The effect of central bank became significant when using larger dataset including non-European countries. In this dataset, the leading role of central bank is associated with lower probability that instruments targeting borrowers are implemented.
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