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Analysis of gasoline and diesel prices in the Czech Republic
Badáňová, Martina ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Šopov, Boril (referee)
This thesis investigates relationship between fuel (gasoline and diesel) prices in the Czech Republic and world crude oil prices over the period from 2004 to 2011. Using daily data we estimate an asymmetric error correction model and we find that in the short-run fuel prices are adjusted upwards to the long-run equilibrium faster than they are adjusted downwards to the equilibrium. However, the difference in responses is found to be not statistically significant.
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Long-term memory detection with bootstrapping techniques: empirical analysis
Albert, Branislav ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Avdulaj, Krenar (referee)
A time series has long range dependence if its autocorrelation function is not absolutely convergent. Presence of long memory in a time series has important consequences for consistency of several time series estimators and forecasting. We present a self-contained theoretical treatment of time series models necessary for study of long range dependence and survey a large list of parametric and semiparametric estimators of long range dependence. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare size and power properties of four estimators, namely R/S, DFA, GPH and Wavelet based method, when relying on asymptotic normality of the estimators and distributions obtained from the moving block bootstrap. We find out that the moving block bootstrap can improve the size of the R/S estimator. In general however, the moving block bootstrap did not perform satisfactorily for other estimators. GPH and Wavelet estimators offer the most reliable asymptotic confidence intervals.
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Financial Risk Measures: Review and Empirical Applications
Říha, Jan ; Šopov, Boril (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
This thesis focuses on several classes of risk measures, related axioms and properties. We have introduced and compared monetary, coherent, convex and deviation classes of risk measures and subsequently their properties have been discussed and in selected cases demonstrated on data. Furthermore the relatively promising and advanced class of risk measures, the spectral risk measures, has been introduced. In addition to that we have outlined selected topics from portfolio theory that are relevant for applications of selected risk measures and then derived theoretical solution of portfolio selection using chosen risk measures. In the end we have highlighted the potential consequences of improper employment of certain risk measures in portfolio optimization.
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Interest Rate Pass-Through: Does It Change with Financial Distress? The Czech Experience
Kazaziová, Gledis ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to investigate the behavior of the interest rate transmission from money market rates to bank retail rates on the Czech banking market during the period from January 2004 to November 2010, and to detect potential changes occurred as a result of the current financial crisis. Using Ordinary Least Squares, Recursive Coefficients estimates and Impulse Response analysis we explore that bank retail rates reflect Pribor rate changes more strongly than changes in Euribor rates. We reveal that interest rate pass-through is rather incomplete and sluggish in the majority of cases and the adjustment level decreases noticeably during the period influenced by the financial crises.
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White Test for the Least Weighted Squares
Bludská, Věra ; Víšek, Jan Ámos (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
The Least Weighted Squares (LWS) is a robust method for computing coefficients in linear regression models. An inherent problem of LWS is the complexity of its estimator and, consequently, the lack of an analytical solution or fast exact algorithms for its evaluation. To remedy this situation a novel exact algorithm running in polynomial time has been proposed. The algorithm implemented in MATLAB programming language has been employed for testing computationally more efficient non-exact LWS methods. In addition to many potential uses of LWS in robust econometrics (e.g. outlier diagnostics) the method has been applied to the problem of regression estimation in the presence of heteroscedasticity. It has been demonstrated that the combined use of the LWS estimator and White's test for heteroscedasticity significantly improves the efficiency of the robust regression estimation.
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Behaviour of Stocks on the Prague Stock Exchange During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Empirical Research
Koza, Oldřich ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
This work studies the behaviour of the four most traded stocks on the Prague Stock Exchange from January 2007 to July 2010. Its main goal is to describe how the financial crisis influenced the Prague Stock Exchange. Employing standard statistical methods, ARMA, GARCH, and VAR models I examine on daily data the following phenomena: volatility, price jumps, the day of the week effect, validity of the efficient market hypothesis, and information flow between the stocks. The results imply that the financial crisis had stronger impact on the banking sector stocks than on other stocks. The crisis was mainly characterized by rapid growth in volatility and correlation between the stocks. It also influenced the information flow and the day of the week effect. However, the crisis did not trigger growth in the number of extreme price movements, and it did not cause the market to be less information efficient.
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Debt Contracts and Stochastic Default Barrier
Dózsa, Martin ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
This thesis focuses on the theory of asset pricing models and their usage in the design of credit contracts. We describe the evolution of structural models start- ing from the basic Mertonian framework through the introduction of a default barrier, and ending with stochastic interest rate environment. Further, with the use of game theory analysis, the parameters of an optimal capital struc- ture and safety covenants are examined. To the author's best knowledge, the first EBIT-based structural model is built up that considers stochastic default barrier. This set-up is able to catch the different optimal capital structures in various business cycle periods, as well as bankruptcy decisions dependent on the state of the economy. The effects of an exogenous change in the risk-free interest rate on the asset value, probability of default, and optimal debt ratio are also explained. JEL Classification C73, G12, G32, G33 Keywords credit contracts, stochastic default barrier, asset pricing, EBIT-based models, struc- tural models Author's e-mail martin@dozsa.cz Supervisor's e-mail Karel-Janda@seznam.cz Abstrakt Tato práce se zabývá teoretickými modely pro oceňování finančních aktiv a je- jich použitím při návrhu optimálních úvěrových smluv mezi dlužníky a věřiteli. V první části je popsán...
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Debt contracts and stochastic default barrier
Dózsa, Martin ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
This thesis focuses on the theory of asset pricing models and their usage in the design of credit contracts. We describe the evolution of structural models starting from the basic Mertonian framework through the introduction of a default barrier, and ending with stochastic interest rate environment. Further, with the use of game theory analysis, the parameters of an optimal capital structure and safety covenants are examined. To the author's best knowledge, the first EBIT-based structural model is built up that considers stochastic default barrier. This set-up is able to catch the different optimal capital structures in various business cycle periods, as well as bankruptcy decisions dependent on the state of the economy. The effects of an exogenous change in the risk-free interest rate on the asset value, probability of default, and optimal debt ratio are also explained.
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Customer Lifetime Value - Application to Banking Sector
Lajksnerová, Zuzana ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Master Thesis: Customer Lifetime Value - Application to Banking Sector Author: Zuzana Lajksnerová Abstract This thesis deals with the calculation of the customer life value for clients of second largest Czech commercial banks - Československá obchodní banka a.s.. The aim is to estimate the revenue each individual brings to the bank within the first year, two, four since creating a profile but also during the whole time he or she remains in their customer base. The first, theoretical part contains of structured overview of the modeling approach from available literature. In the second part, we develop two different models, which are subsequently applied on client data of 2.7 million ČSOB customers. The prediction takes into account both revenues from each product and probability that customer will use this product. For estimation of the two models we use several different econometric methods, thus linear regression, bootstrap, probit and multinomial logit. The results show that demographic data such as age and gender, as well as product related variables, greatly inuence the final level of value of customer. It is also shown that higher potential earnings are associated with men, people of working age and loyal customers.
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Interest rate pass-through : Does it change with financial distress? : the Czech experience
Kazaziová, Gledis ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee) ; Horváth, Roman (advisor)
The aim of this thesis is to investigate the behavior of the interest rate transmission from money market rates to bank retail rates on the Czech banking market during the period from January 2004 to January 2010, and to detect potential changes occurred as a result of current financial crisis. Using Ordinary Least Squares, Recursive Coefficients estimates and Impulse Response analysis we explore that bank retail rates reflect Pribor rate changes more strongly than changes in Euribor rates. We reveal that interest rate pass-through is rather incomplete and sluggish in the majority of cases and the adjustment level decreases noticeably during the period influenced by the financial crises.
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