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Expert System for Decision-Making on Stock Markets Using Investor Sentiment
Janková, Zuzana ; Lenort, Radim (referee) ; Zinecker, Marek (referee) ; Chramcov, Bronislav (referee) ; Dostál, Petr (advisor)
The presented dissertation examines the potential of using the sentiment score extracted from textual data with historical stock index data to improve the performance of stock market prediction through the created model of the expert system. Given the large number of financial-related text documents published by both professional and amateur investors, not only on online social networks that could have an impact on real stock markets, but it is also crucial to analyze and in particular extract financial texts published by different users. investor sentiment. In this work, investor sentiment is obtained from online financial reports and contributions published on the financial social platform StockTwits. Sentiment scores are determined using a hybrid approach combining machine learning models with the teacher and neural networks, with multiple lexicons of positive and negative words used to classify sentiment polarity. The influence of sentiment score on the stock market through causality, cointegration and coherence is analyzed. The dissertation proposes a model of an expert system based on fuzzy logic methods. Fuzzy logic provides remarkable features when working with vague, inaccurate or unclear data and is able to deal with the chaotic environment of stock markets. In recent scientific studies, it has gained in popularity a higher level of fuzzy logic, which is referred to as type-2 fuzzy logic. Unlike the classic type-1 fuzzy logic, this higher type is able to integrate a certain level of uncertainty between the dual membership functions. However, this type of expert system is considerably neglected in the subject issue of stock market prediction using the extracted investor sentiment. For this reason, the dissertation examines the potential to use and the performance of type-2 fuzzy logic. Specifically, several type-2 fuzzy models are created. which are trained on historical stock index data and sentiment scores extracted from text data for the period 2018-2020. The created models are assessed to measure the prediction performance without sentiment and with the integration of investor sentiment. Subsequently, based on the created expert model, the investment strategy is determined, and its profitability is monitored. The prediction performance of fuzzy models is compared with the performance of several comparison models, including SVM, KNN, naive Bayes and others. It has been observed from experiments that fuzzy logic models are able to improve prediction by appropriate setting of membership and uncertainty functions contained in them and are able to compete with classical expert prediction models, which are standardly used in research studies. The created model should serve as a tool to support investment decisions for individual investors.
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Risk of Choosing a Supplier Using Fuzzy Logic
Vyskočilová, Monika ; Janková, Zuzana (referee) ; Dostál, Petr (advisor)
The thesis deals with the design of a model used for evaluation and selection of fire-retardant footwear suppliers for the company Požární bezpečnost s. r. o. The thesis includes a summary of the theoretical foundation for processing the work, a presentation of the selected company and a draft of an evaluation model that assesses the contractor based on the chosen criteria and makes it easier for the company to make their decision. The model is created by using fuzzy logic in Microsoft Excel and MATLAB programs.
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Evaluation of Supllier Risk Using Fuzzy Logic
Lázniček, Matěj ; Janková, Zuzana (referee) ; Dostál, Petr (advisor)
This diploma thesis deals with the evaluation of supplier risk for a chosen company Vinařství Soška using the fuzzy logic principles. This company like many others is forced to shift its sales to the Internet environment due to the government restrictions established to reflect the pandemic situation. For a successful Internet business, it is necessary to choose an optimal ecommerce software based on the company requirements. For this purpose, two fuzzy logic models are built in Microsoft Excel and MATLAB software. Their aim is to evaluate the potential risk of all of the suppliers. Based on this evaluation, the results are transformed into specific recommendations on how to choose the optimal solution for the company. The first chapters deal with the general theory that is later used in the analytical part.
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Use of mathematical methods in creating an investment portfolio
Holub, Miroslav ; Novotná, Veronika (referee) ; Janková, Zuzana (advisor)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the use of mathematical methods in creating an investment portfolio, which is designed for small investor. The theoretical part of the thesis describes the necessary knowledge to understand Markowitz model, selected indicators of financial analysis and the Value at Risk method. The practical part contains a selection of investment instruments traded on the US market according to established criteria, the creation of a real portfolio of these investment instruments and the final evaluation of results.
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The Application of Fuzzy Logic for Evaluation of Quality of Customers
Behancová, Katarína ; Janková, Zuzana (referee) ; Dostál, Petr (advisor)
The diploma thesis deals with the evaluation of the quality of customers using fuzzy logic based on the evaluation of their orders. The thesis consists of three parts. The first part is the theoretical basis of the thesis, which explains the issue of fuzzy logic. The second is the analytical part, in which the company ZKN METAL s.r.o. was introduced, for which a specific solution is subsequently proposed in the third and last part of the thesis. This solution is processed in the form of two models. The first of the models is processed in the MS Excel program and the second is modeled using the MATLAB programming environment. Both models are set in a user-intuitive environment and they are compared with each other afterwards.
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The Application of Fuzzy Logic for Rating of Suppliers for the Firm
Froehling, Kryštof ; Janková, Zuzana (referee) ; Dostál, Petr (advisor)
The diploma thesis deals with the application of the theory of fuzzy logic in the evaluation of client translation commissions for a foreign language text. This fuzzy model is used for better selection of orders and faster allocation of human resources for specific orders. The fuzzy model is composed of multi-valued decision-making criteria that are essential for the company. The model is processed in MS Excel using VBA and MathWorks MATLAB.
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Komparace výkonnosti podílových fondů a ETF
Janková, Zuzana
JANKOVÁ, Z. A Performance Comparison of mutual funds and ETF. Mendel University in Brno, 2017. Diploma thesis. The diploma thesis is focused on performance comparison of open-end mutual funds and ETF. Selected funds are separated by region USA, World, European and Emerging markets equities. Funds are analyzed in the practical part for the period between 2007 and 2016. The first part introduced defines notion of collective investment, advantages and disadvantages. Funds are analyzed in the terms of return, risk, cost and including foreing exchange risk.
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Application of Mathematical and Statistical Methods in Company Management
Brančík, Jakub ; Janková, Zuzana (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
This master thesis deals with the investment recommendation for Czechoslovak Com- mercial Bank, a.s. The recommendation is based on business strategy based on Fibonacci retracement and analysis of the current risks of financial markets. The first part deals with the parameters and the results of the business strategy. Second part proposes investment and non-investment recommendations. At the end of the thesis are summarized all aspects of the research.
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Performance Evaluation of Real Estate Investment and Mutual Funds
Janková, Zuzana ; Novotná, Veronika (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
Diploma thesis deals with the evaluation and the comparison of the performance of mutual funds and investment funds with a focus on the real estate sector. The essence and principles of mutual funds, ETF and REIT are presented, and the resulting weaknesses and advantages. According to the selected indicators, the profitability, riskiness and expense of the investment opportunities are examined and investment recommendations for management of an investment company and potential retail investors are established.
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Aplikace modelu CAPM na český akciový trh
Janková, Zuzana
Janková, Z. Application of the CAPM model on the Czech Stock Market. Bachelor thesis. Brno: PEF MENDELU, 2015 The bachelor thesis is concerned with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and it's explicatory ability application on the Czech Stock Market. The CAPM is empirically tested on historical stock data of selected shares from the Prague Stock Exchange.Ability to dermine individual stock returns is tested on the wide range of investment horizont, namely 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 years. The praktical application shows that the CAPM model is not capable to explain individual stock returns only using beta coefficient which represent systematick risk.
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