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Analysis of the stock index volatility on European stock exchanges
Švehla, Pavel ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee)
This thesis focuses on analysis and comparison of volatility on selected European stock markets. At first paper briefly introduces the reader to the specific features of financial econometrics and the importance of asset returns volatility analysis. Further chapters precisely cover the construction of linear and nonlinear conditional heteroscedasticity models as an appropriate tool for describing the volatility in financial data. The empirical part of the thesis analyze four stock exchange indices from various European regions and seek appropriate models to express volatility behavior in period before the financial crisis in 2008 and also during the crisis phase. Based on selected models, the paper tries to compare the volatility in both periods within the specific stock market index and moreover between different regions. The last section examines asymmetric effects in volatility of stock indices using their graphical representation.
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Econometric Analysis of Monetary and Fiscally Policy of the Czech Republic with Impacts to Business Area
Řičař, Michal ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Kislingerová, Eva (referee)
Monetary and fiscally policy together form the main pillar of state policy, which allows responsible institutions to stimulate or damp the development of national economy. Crucial role of these operations should be research of impacts on the sectors of industry, the business entities, respectively. We can expect that stimulation, e.g. in the form of increased government spending or lower interest rate of the central bank, will have different responses across a range of branches. If mathematical model of alternative historical development of the economy is composed with simulations for selected industries, we can analyze how each branch is affected. If significant differences in response of macroeconomic stimulations are found, it is necessary to proceed to an analytical examination of the causal factors that could stand in the background probably. It appears appropriate to apply financial analysis and on its basis it is possible to evaluate the structure of assets, financing, attainment of profits and other factors, whose characteristics is a strong explanatory power of the composition and function of the analyzed branch in the economy as a whole.
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Hurst Exponent and Randomness in Time Series
Zeman, Martin ; Trešl, Jiří (advisor) ; Hušek, Roman (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to test the ability of the Hurst exponent to recognise some processes with deterministic signal as nonrandom and to test the randomness of daily stock returns of three stocks traded in BCPP. Critical values to determine the critical region of a randomness hypothesis test were set for this purpose. Another goal of the thesis is the description of the Hurst exponent estimation by means of Rescaled Range Analysis and outline some problems accompanying this estimation if the Hurst exponent would be used as a randomness indicator. Within the frame of Rescaled Range Analysis was constructed another method that showed to be successful in recognising some series that contain deterministic signal.
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Analysis of Seasonality in the Czech Construction
Šimpach, Ondřej ; Arltová, Markéta (advisor) ; Hušek, Roman (referee)
The output of the National economy of the Czech Republic is conditioned by a sum of important factors. There are sectors, which increased power during the last two decades, mainly due to expansion of modern technologies and knowledge workers. One of this is Construction. Construction is specific to its position in the economy and in particular is characterized by the greatest seasonality ever. However, this is not a problem for statistical analysis, rather a benefit. Modern approaches allow us to analyze seasonal fluctuations. From selected data we are able to construct evolutionary forecasts. The work will be performed for the most important indicators in the Czech Construction. The outcome of the paper will be conditional forecasts of these indicators. It will also make analyze of the relationship between these indicators and other variables that might affected it. The work is practical application of stochastic modeling approach by Box and Jenkins, augmented by more modern approaches, such as verification of Granger causality and co-integration and testing of seasonal unit roots by Hylleberg et al.
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Models of inflation and its volatility in CZ
Bisová, Sára ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee)
This paper focuses on analysing and modelling inflation and its dynamics in Czech Republic applying a special kind of econometric models. Firstly economic theory of inflation is mentioned - fundamental terms, measuring methods of inflation, the way Czech national bank is monitoring the inflation and obviously a short summary of historical evolution of inflation in Czech economy. In the second part of this paper two econometric concepts of modelling time series are introduced - vector autoregression models (VAR models) and volatility models, concretely ARCH and GARCH models. In connection with the VAR models, Granger causality, impulse response functions, cointegration and error correction models are described. The empirical part includes application of selected models on real time series of chosen macroeconomic indicators. The estimation outputs are interpreted and forecasts are implemented. The quality of chosen econometric models for modelling inflation in Czech Republic is discussed.
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Analysis of inflation dynamics in Czech Republic
Hubálek, Ondřej ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
Bachelor work is focused on analysis of inflation dynamics in Czech Republic using econometric models. Inflation with its impacts, costs and possibilities of measuring is described in the first part of this work. There is also described influence of Czech national bank on inflation progress and inflation targeting. Part also contains basic econometric models for inflation analysis and models of adaptive expectations. Consequently there is described theory of econometrics analysis, focused on ordinary least squares method. There are also described factors that can negatively influence significance of estimated models. In the concrete it is heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and multicolinearity. The empirical part contains econometric analysis of inflation in Czech Republic by itself, using models described in theoretical part. There are also used other models, coming out of economic hypothesis. In the end there are selected models for inflation prediction.
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Simulation predictions of the Czech economy
Vejdělková, Dita ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis is composed of three main parts. The first part is theoretical and I deal here with economic relationships between macroeconomic magnitudes. Second part dedicated to the econometric theory of prognosis follows, in which I deal with different types of prognoses and prediction methods used at present. In the third, practical, part my intended aim is to create the best possible models of relations between fundamental macroeconomic magnitudes, using real Czech economy data, and to make simulation predictions of these magnitudes based on acquired models while utilising scenario analysis. First, I deal with choice of MSE and VAR models. Then follows the estimate of particular models and validation of prognostic capabilities of particular models for static and dynamic simulation. I conclude with elaboration of macroeconomic magnitudes prognosis while using scenario analysis.
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Model of EU international trade - assigning countries into subgroups in panel data
Tichý, Filip ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
I model foreign trade among European countries by applying gravity equation model on panel data. The aim is to investigate exchange rate volatility impact on foreign trade and to test for the presence of the so-called Rose effect in relation to the Euro currency area. I develop a novel complex approach to the estimation of the gravity equation when the assumption of homogeneous reaction within the group of studied countries is relaxed. New methodology, tests and implementation is proposed. I develop several heuristic methods that permit effective clustering of countries in a selection of subgroups. The clustering process is iterative: in each step, countries are redistributed in new subgroups and the process is terminated, when no subsequent superior redistribution is possible. Finally, the effective selection of subgroups of countries is chosen to minimize an appropriately defined objective function. Results of the proposed heuristic tests suggest that no dominant method exists. Therefore, an algorithm of chaining of alternative heuristic methods is proposed. After the solution is achieved with one method, an alternative method is imposed and the search for the optimal solution continues, until the objective function reaches its minimum. The proposed methodology is applied to estimate the gravity equation of foreign trade with the extension that permits to assign countries into optimally selected subgroups using the newly introduced algorithms.
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Dynamic models of the demand for money. Application to the Czech Republic.
Křemen, Jaroslav ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee)
This work deals with the demand for money theories and applications of error correction Models and VAR models for the demand for money in the Czech Republic. In the theoretical part of the work are discussed theory of demand for money, with an emphasis on Patinkins theory of demand for money and the wording of VAR models and error correction models. In the application part are applied VAR (1), VAR (2) models and error correction models on the demand for money in the Czech Republic. Data used in the work come from the information system CNB and the CZSO.
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The Application of the Discrete Choice Models
Čejková, Tereza ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Fíglová, Zuzana (referee)
This thesis treats with the theory, interpretation and application of the Discrete Choice Models. The theoretical part contains the Fitting the Logistic Regression Model, Testing for the Significance of the Coefficients, Testing for the Significance of the Model. The Multiple Logistic Regression is mentioned too. The model was applied to interview data from the International research called Reflex.
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