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Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks
Kučera, A. ; Kočenda, Evžen ; Maršál, Aleš
We show that government spending does play a role in shaping the yield curve which has important consequences for the cost of private and government financing. We combine government spending shock identification strategies from the fiscal macro literature with recent advancements in no-arbitrage affine term structure modeling, where we account for time-varying macroeconomic trends in inflation and the equilibrium real interest rate. We stress in our empirical macro-finance framework the importance of timing in the response of yields to government spending. We find that the yield curve responds positively but mildly to a surprise in government spending shocks where the rise in risk-neutral yields is compensated by a drop in nominal term premia. The news shock in expectations about future expenditures decreases yields across all maturities. Complementarily, we also analyze the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty where higher fiscal uncertainty lowers yields.
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ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
Aliyev, S. ; Kočenda, Evžen
We analyze the impact of the ECB monetary policies on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices using monthly data from January 2001 till August 2019. We employ a SVAR model and assess separately period of conventional monetary policy before global financial crisis (GFC) and unconventional monetary policy during post-crisis period. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on the aggregate and sectoral commodity prices during both conventional and unconvetional monetary policy periods. The effect is statistically significant for aggregate commodity prices during post-crisis period. In terms of sectoral impact, the effect is statistically significant for food prices in both periods and for fuel prices during post-crisis period; other commodities display positive but statistically insignificant responses. Further, we demonstrate that the impact of the ECB monetary policy on commodity prices increased remarkably after the GFC. Our results also suggest that the effect of the ECB monetary policy on commodity prices does not transmit directly through market demand and supply expectations channel, but rather through the exchange rate channel that influences the European market demand directly.
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Predatory publications in Scopus: evidence on cross-country differences
Macháček, Vít ; Srholec, Martin
The paper maps the infiltration of so-called “predatory” scholarly journals into the citation database Scopus. Using the names of “potential, possible, or probable” predatory journals and publishers on Beall’s lists, we derived ISSNs of the respective journals from Ulrichsweb and searched Scopus with it. A total of 324 matched journals with 164 thousand documents indexed in Scopus over 2015-2017, making up a share of 2.8 % of the total articles have been identified. An analysis of cross-country differences in the tendency to publish in these journals reveals that overall the most affected are middle-income countries in Asia and North Africa. Kazakhstan is the country with the largest tendency to publish in predatory journals (18 %). More than 5 % is reported in 20 countries, including large countries such as Indonesia (18 %), Malaysia (11 %), India (10 %), or Nigeria (7 %). Neither developed countries are resistant to predatory publishing. More than 16 000 “potentially predatory” articles were published by authors from United States (0.67 %).
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Entrepreneurship in the information age: an empirical analysis of the European regions
Pleticha, Petr
Decelerating productivity in recent years raised questions about technology diffusion in the economy. This study focuses on one particular diffusion channel, entrepreneurship, and inspects the mechanics through which it interacts with digitalization. The composite indicator of digitalization is split into separate components which enables analyzing digitalization’s interplay with entrepreneurship as a dynamic process. Based on the econometric analysis of Eurostat regional data covering the period 2008-2015, I find significant links between digitalization and entrepreneurship. Specifically, digitalization is associated with an increase in the rate at which firms are created and with a decrease in their survival rate after 3 years. The paper demonstrates that the interaction is dynamic in its nature as the effects of initial stages of digitalization reverse or vanish in its later phases. A sectoral analysis shows the persistence of the results across industries.\nMoreover, there is evidence that professional, scientific and technical activities are especially sensitive towards digitalization, experiencing strong, yet short-term shock in the firms’ birth, death, and survival rates. Accounting for geographic variation reveals heterogeneity between regions but not large enough to affect the overall results.
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Entrepreneurship in the information age: an empirical analysis of the European regions
Pleticha, Petr
Decelerating productivity in recent years raised questions about technology diffusion in the economy. This study focuses on one particular diffusion channel, entrepreneurship, and inspects the mechanics through which it interacts with digitalization. The composite indicator of digitalization is split into separate components which enables analyzing digitalization’s interplay with entrepreneurship as a dynamic process. Based on the econometric analysis of Eurostat regional data covering the period 2008-2015, I find significant links between digitalization and entrepreneurship. Specifically, digitalization is associated with an increase in the rate at which firms are created and with a decrease in their survival rate after 3 years. The paper demonstrates that the interaction is dynamic in its nature as the effects of initial stages of digitalization reverse or vanish in its later phases. A sectoral analysis shows the persistence of the results across industries.\nMoreover, there is evidence that professional, scientific and technical activities are especially sensitive towards digitalization, experiencing strong, yet short-term shock in the firms’ birth, death, and survival rates. Accounting for geographic variation reveals heterogeneity between regions but not large enough to affect the overall results.
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