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Bankruptcy prediction models
Šustr, Jan ; Synek, Miloslav (advisor) ; Špička, Jindřich (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to describe some of the well-known, as well as several less-known, prediction models, and to verify their ability of predicting bankruptcy in the conditions of the Czech Republic. The theoretical part of the thesis contains descriptions of these models, equations to calculate them and ways of results evaluation. Models by both Czech and foreign authors are presented. The practical part of the thesis verifies the ability of these models to predict bankruptcy on a sample of eight randomly selected companies which suffered serious financial problems. At the end of this thesis, the results from evaluating of these companies by prediction models are summarized.
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Aplikace neuronových sítí a metody ROC v klasifikačních úlohách
Pokorný, Martin
The disseratation theses deals with the problem of cost-sensitive binary classification by means of neural networks applied in economical prediction tasks, especially in the field of financial distress prediction. The first part contains the review of existing research in this area and the challenging key points related to cost-sensitive classification are set there. After that, the application of existing Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) method, which is able to solve mentioned problems, is discussed and the possibility of its wider use in economical prediction is proposed. The methodology of ROC analysis application is shown in medical and economical experiment of classification with neural networks.
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Revenue Forecasting in Municipal Budgets
Talíř, Jan ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (advisor) ; Kostohryz, Jiří (referee)
The diploma thesis is focused on the analysis of prediction of tax revenues in conditions of cities Polička, Svitavy and Litomyšl. The main objective was to determine how surveyed municipalities predict their tax revenues, how accurate their estimates are and, in particular, whether it is possible to achieve more accurate results based on basic statistical methods. Minor objectives of this work were the description of how the individual municipalities forecast tax revenues, how the forecasts are integrated into the budget process and how this issue is dealt with in the United States. The results of the analysis showed that it is not possible to get more accurate predictions using basic quantitative models. It turned out that the quality of predictions of the statistical models was similar to the quality of the municipal estimates, even at forecasts of those tax revenues, where the deviation from the real revenue is quite high.
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Revenue forecasts of municipal budgets
Marek, Petr ; Klazar, Stanislav (advisor) ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (referee)
The main theme of this bachelor thesis is to analyze the revenue forecasts of the municipal budgets and compare them to other techniques of prediction. Among these forecasting tools belongs simple moving average, exponential smoothing, transformation moving average and regression against time. One part of this thesis is dedicated to the description how the chosen town Písek prepares its budget. The result of this thesis is that we cannot use only one technique to forecast all the revenues. The forecasts of the town Písek are the best only for individual income tax and corporate income tax not paid by municipalities. For the other taxes it is better to use other methods. The best possible prediction is achievable by combination of all these techniques.
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Predictors of current economic issues
Mlýnek, Jonáš ; Sirůček, Pavel (advisor) ; Nečadová, Marta (referee)
In 2007, the U.S. economy plunged into the deepest recession since 1930's. Later on problems poured into the rest of the world, which just as the U.S. lived in illusion that any slowdown is impossible. Despite widespread optimism, a few harbingers drew attention to unhealthy fundamentals. This thesis deals with the phenomenon of economic crises forecasting, focusing on the aforementioned recession. It aims at analyzing of the most discussed predictions and introducing their authors who were not only highly respected figures, but also less well-known economists. Nouriel Roubini, who became a symbol of economic forecasting, is discussed in closer detail. The analysis of his work focuses on the development, consistency and verification of his views. It also draws general conclusions on Roubini's predicting.
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Analýza státní podpory stavebního spoření.
Fries, Jonáš ; Půlpánová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Hradil, Dušan (referee)
The thesis deals with the determination and analysis of government support for building savings in the Czech republic between 2001 and 2009. The general section describes the legal framework of building savings system and the main products offered by building societies. The application section examines the progression of government support for building savings and delas with its forecasts.
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Methods of prediction of currency courses
Pour, Jiří ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Langer, Miroslav (referee)
The bachelor thesis deals with two methods of prediction of currency courses - the Power Price Parity theory and the Balance of Payments theory. At the begining there is a description of a currency course in general and basic methods of its prediction - fundamental and technical analysis. The main part of the thesis deals with the two methods of prediction mentioned above. Each theory is described, criticised and empirically compared with historical data from years 1999-2010 in separated chapters. The chapter about the balace of payments includes lots of charts illustrating the structures of balances of payments of the United States, the European Monetary Union and the Czech Republic.
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Evaluation of selected companies using predictive models
Horák, Jan ; Špička, Jindřich (advisor) ; Krause, Josef (referee)
The main objective of this Bachelor thesis is to predict the financial situation of selected companies and to assess the explanatory power of prediction models in practice. To achieve this objective, four companies are selected. Oděvní podnik, a.s. and Veba, textilní závody a.s. are representatives of the textile industry. Olšanské papírny a.s and Duropack Bupak Papírna s.r.o. are representatives of the paper industry. One of each pair is considered to be failed and the other one to be a successful company with a financial health. The first part of this Bachelor thesis is aimed at providing a theoretical basis connected with prediction models. In the second part the full of theoretical knowledge is used and there is a practical use of predictive models. In the final part the results are evaluated, compared and the recommendations for the future use of prediction models are summarized.
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Currency pairs and their development
Kotrba, Lukáš ; Soukup, Jindřich (advisor) ; Makovský, Petr (referee)
The main objective of this work is to estimate and determinate methods to use when analyzing future development of exchange rate. The main goals have been achieved by a summary of past developements and listing of important elements that shaped the past and are shaping the present and also the future. Than followed the theoretical part, without that knowledge, we could not get through. I started from the definition of a currency pair, forex, macroeconomic effects, which are shapping the exchange rate more or less influence over the definitions of the market. This was followed by theoretical models of fundamental analysis, which aim to determine the exchange rate. I also added a technical analysis to fundamental analysis and in practical part. I fill real data in theoretical background and I try to determine the future exchange rate.
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