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Application of (geo)demographic methods in education
Šebestík, Libor ; Hulíková Tesárková, Klára (advisor) ; Fialová, Ludmila (referee)
Application of (geo)demographic methods in education Abstract This master's thesis presents the possibilities of application of demographic, geodemographic and statistical methods on data published by the educational sector. The methods of demographic analysis are represented by the usage of rates, the concept of multistate demography (Markov chains) and the application of life tables. The enrollment ratio at particular levels of education, the average length of schooling and the number of dropouts from school grades are evaluated by these procedures. Markov chains which are based on the probabilities of transition between grades are also examined in terms of their use for forecasting purposes. These methods analyze the situation at the preschool, primary and secondary levels and are used on data from the annual Statistical Yearbooks on Education. In the field of geodemography, the so called preferential model of migration flows is presented. This model examines how applicants for tertiary education prefer or reject the regions of the Czech Republic for their tertiary education studies. The last method is the binary logistic regression which analyzes the inequalities in access to tertiary education. Both preferential model and logistic regression are based on data files on the admission process at...
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Can Bayesian econometric methods outperform traditional econometrics in inflation forecasting?
Stráský, Josef ; Netuka, Martin (referee) ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor)
Forecasting of inflation rates has become crucial for both policy makers and private agents who try to understand and react to Central Bank decisions since many Central Banks implemented inflation targeting rules instead of control of monetary aggregates. Inflation forecasting is considered to be very complicated issue because univariate regression models and structural macroeconomic models are usually outperformed by naive random walk model. This work is intended for forecasting inflation in the Czech Republic by employing Bayesian econometric method (namely Bayesian Vector autoregression - BVAR). Bayesian methods proved to be useful in inflation forecasting in developed countries (Fabio Canova: G-7 Inflation Forecasts: Random Walk, Phillips Curve or What Else?, 2007). Bayesian econometrics is one of the most developing fields of econometrics for past two decades. In the centre of the approach is Bayesian probabilistic theory based on conditional probabilities. This probabilistic approach is, however, computationally demanding. Fast computer evolution enables wide applications of Bayesian models. Model estimations are based on combining information from some prior beliefs and from the data. Many different sorts of models have their Bayesian variants (e.g. OLS) but the emphasis in this work is on Bayesian...
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Stochastic Prediction of Mean Monthly Flows in Selected Hydrometric Profile
Jansa, Jakub ; Menšík, Pavel (referee) ; Marton, Daniel (advisor)
The diploma thesis is focused on the average monthly flows forecast in the selected hydrometric profile. Aim of this work will be evaluation of the calculated values and the interpretation of the results in understandable form. The next step will be find an appropriate connection between randomly-generated inputs in the form of random real flow series using the standard hydrological prediction models. This models are based on the principles of artificial intelligence and probability model. The result of the work will be verification of procedures and compilation of mean monthly flow stochastic forecast in selected hydrometric profile, which would be used for a reservoirs management, respectively for water systems management.
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Application statistical methods for estimation customer lifetime value
Samuseva, Katsiaryna ; Vraná, Lenka (advisor) ; Sobíšek, Lukáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis pay attention on statistical methods managing relationship with customers and different approaches of estimation customer lifetime value for the company in long time period. It is an empirical type of bachelor thesis, where we will test the theoretical assumptions on the real data. During this paper we research and measure customers behavior in order to obtain quantitative outputs to adaptation marketing strategy, efficient allocation of resources and choosing key clients. On the basis of past and present behavior we simulate expected in future level of purchasing behavior and thus try to determine the most profitable target groups for high-quality application of marketing tools. Main purposes of thesis are describing various attitudes to modeling CLV, applying the model Pareto/NBD on real date of the company Práce pro Vás, to evaluate forecast applicability in practice. Following tasks will be resolved in this paper: to introduce advantages and disadvantages of each modeling CLV approach, to evaluate quality of Pareto/NBD model and to determine the advanced extensions of the research in this issue. There are various attitudes to estimation of CLV, which are described in theoretical chapters, but practical part of this paper focuses primarily on application of probability model Pareto/NBD. With the help of Pareto/NBD managers can get the information about future customers activity, i.e. expected number of transactions from real behavior a probability that customer will be active in observation period. In nowadays reality of overloaded market, almost in every business sector, every company should rely on quantitative base of marketing and choose target clients, on which to focus their marketing efforts. Exactly this need matches with described and applied in this bachelor thesis model Pareto/NBD, with it help we will estimate customer lifetime value for strategic decisions and managing relationship with customers. Finally, we will resolve continuous tasks and will achieve all the determined goals.
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Value at Risk: GARCH vs. Stochastic Volatility Models: Empirical Study
Tesárová, Viktória ; Gapko, Petr (advisor) ; Seidler, Jakub (referee)
The thesis compares GARCH volatility models and Stochastic Volatility (SV) models with Student's t distributed errors and its empirical forecasting per- formance of Value at Risk on five stock price indices: S&P, NASDAQ Com- posite, CAC, DAX and FTSE. It introduces in details the problem of SV models Maximum Likelihood examinations and suggests the newly devel- oped approach of Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS). EIS is a procedure that provides an accurate Monte Carlo evaluation of likelihood function which depends upon high-dimensional numerical integrals. Comparison analysis is divided into in-sample and out-of-sample forecast- ing performance and evaluated using standard statistical probability back- testig methods as conditional and unconditional coverage. Based on empirical analysis thesis shows that SV models can perform at least as good as GARCH models if not superior in forecasting volatility and parametric VaR. 1
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Theory of a Clash of Civilizations: Case study Kosovo
Kodrazi, Suzan ; Lehmannová, Zuzana (advisor) ; Novotná, Yvona (referee)
The case of Kosovo conflict serves as tool to test the validity of Huntington's theory. Owing to the fact that Mr, Huntington himself described the Balkans and Kosovo as an example of a fault line war, my aim is to verify his assumptions that the roots of the Kosovo conflict are to be found in the religion. During this work the conflict is reconstructed using Mr. Huntington's hypothesis and claims as well as interpreted by three hypothesis. Firstly, Kosovo could represent a conflict at the fault line, which would mean that the theory of the clash of the civilizations is verified. Secondly, the intervention of NATO implies participation of the third civilization in the conflict. To put in differently, the democratic West (NATO) intervened against the orthodox civilization (Serbia) in order to prevent the humanitarian catastrophe the Albanian population of Kosovo (Islam) was to face. Verification of this theory would imply that if there was a conflict between the civilizations in Kosovo, it was between the West (and Kosovo as an integral part of it) and the orthodox civilization. The third hypothesis interprets the Kosovo conflict as a war of the Civilization to promote its own values. Despite the fact that this explanation of the Kosovo conflict could possibly be the most probable one, original assumption of Mr. Huntington stating that the problems of Kosovo are of religious character would be falsified.
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Forecasting Time Series - Univariate Methods
Hutínová, Markéta ; Hurt, Jan (referee) ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor)
Nazev prace: Pfedpovedi v casovych radach Autor: Mgr. Marketa Hutinova Katedra: Pravdepodobnosti a matematicke statistiky Vedouci bakaiarske prace: RNDr. Jitka Zichova, Dr. E-mail vedouciho: zi.chova@karlin.mff.cuni.cz Abstract: Bakalafska prace se zabyva problematikou pfedpovedi v casovych fadach, V kazde z kapitol autorka prezentuje a v detailech rozebira jednu statistickou techniku modelovani. Prvni kapitola pojednava o trendu a vhodnosti vyuziti regresni analyzy pro modelovanf casovych fad. Druha kapitola se tyka zname metody exponencialniho vyrovnavani. V tfett kapitole je v detailech popsana Box-Jenkinsova metodologie, ctvrta se soustred'uje na modelovani nelinearnich casovych fad pomoci SETAR a ARCH modelu. Cilem prace je porovnani kvality pfedpovedi pfi pouziti ruznych modelu, coz je teoreticky shrnuto v zaveru prace. K prakticke ukazce byla pouzita data menovych kurzu a Minitab software. Klicova slova: casove fady, regresni analyza, exponencialni vyrovnavani, metodologie Boxova-Jenkinsova, SETAR a ARCH modely Title: Forecasting Time Series Author: Mgr. Marketa Hutinova Department: of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Jitka Zichova, Dr. Supervisor's e-mail: zichova@karltn.mff.cuni.cz Abstract: This bachelor thesis is concerned with the subject of forecasting time series. In...
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Forecasting Ability of Confidence Indicators: Evidence for the Czech Republic
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic. The predictive power of both the business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn defined as a discrete event using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation and to anticipate economic downturn one quarter ahead. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on a model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. This result was indirectly confirmed by OECD as the Czech customer confidence indicator has been included as a new component in the OECD domestic composite leading indicator since April 2012.
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Crude-oil production in the world: current and future trends
Kuška, Petr ; Vošta, Milan (advisor) ; Kašpar, Václav (referee)
The thesis deals with a comprehensive analysis of crude-oil industry. History of production is introduced and oil market is described. The thesis also focuses on analyzing the oilfields, production capacities and oil prices. It also outlined the forecast of future development.In the thesis are given the most important unconventional methods of oil extraction and their future. The biggest oil companies are also analyzed and their history, production and probable future development is discribed.
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Analysis of family formation and dissolution processes using multistate demography modelling
Dušek, Zdeněk ; Rychtaříková, Jitka (advisor) ; Kocourková, Jiřina (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the development of the processes of family formation and dissolution in the Czech Republic between 1993 and 2008 using multistate demography. By this method, we analyze probability of transition between individual marriage states and events, which characterise these transitions. The first part of the analysis deals with the population as a whole, while the second part analyses only the part of population in fertile ages. LIPRO program was used to create a model of marital status based on data for the Czech Republic as well as for producing a forecast of population divided by marital status for the years of 2019?2023. Other parts of this thesis support the main aim of the thesis. The level of marriage and divorce rate were analysed between 1993 and 2008 as well as potential factors that could influence the level of above mentioned processes. Rising number of cohabitations could be one of those factors and therefore a special attention is paid to the development of this type of coexistence. Socioeconomic development and family and social policy are mentioned as well, because they could also have significant impact on the processes of formation and dissolution of families. The above mentioned factors and their relationship to the marriage rate are analysed using the...
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