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"Whip Inflation Now" and Its Impact on Inflation and Unemployment in the United States in the 1970's
Sirový, Michal ; Tajovský, Ladislav (advisor) ; Ráček, Martin (referee)
The topic of this thesis is the Gerald Ford's program WIN as a policy aimed at inflation. WIN is certainly determined by the time it was developer in. The essential aspects are unemployment rate, which had reached 9 percents in the 1970s, and the neglect of monetary policy. Ford's announced policy was the exact opposite of that of Nixon's. The infamous saving in the times of crisis was relatively mild, thus the speculations of an attempt of Ford's PR is an explanation. The CPI level had lowered in 1976 from 9.1 to 5.8 percent, yet the inflation had decreased only in the short-term, and it is a matter of discussion if WIN played any part in that. The relation betwen unemployment and inflation will be analysed at the background of Phillips curve in the second part of the paper.
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Modelling and forecasting inflation
Nguyen, Tran Anh Tuan ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of the thesis is an analysis of inflation in the Czech Republic in the period 2004 - 2011, using econometric models. This work is divided into two parts, theoretical and practical. The theoretical part describes the definition of inflation, its forms, ways of measuring inflation, positive and negative effects of inflation, causes of inflation and inflation targeting. Subsequently described the historical development of a simple Phillips curve and other modifications. The practical part contains the empirical analysis of inflation in the CR using the models described in the theoretical part, with the help of other alternative forms of the Phillips curve. At the end of their work are selected models to predict inflation. The thesis is the implementation of all the calculations in MS Excel and SAS statistical software program.
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Empirical Testing of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic
Plašil, Miroslav ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Pánková, Václava (referee) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
New keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) has become a central model to study the relation between inflation and real economic activity, notably in the framework of optimal monetary policy design. However, some recent evidence suggests that empirical data are usually at odds with the underlying theory. The model due to its inherent structure represents a statistical challenge in its own right. Since Galí and Gertler (1999) published their seminal paper introducing estimation via GMM techniques, they have triggered a heated debate on its empirical relevance. Their approach has been heavily criticised by later authors, mainly on the grounds of questionable behaviour of GMM estimator in the NKPC context and/or its small sample properties. The common criticism includes sensitivity to the choice of instrument set, weak identification and small sample bias. In this thesis I propose a new estimation strategy that provides a remedy to above mentioned shortcomings and allows to obtain reliable estimates. The procedure exploits recent advances in GMM theory as well as in other fields of statistics, in particular in the area of time series factor analysis and bootstrap. The proposed estimation strategy consists of several consecutive steps: first, to reduce a small sample bias resulting from excessive use of instruments I summarize all available information by employing factor analysis and include estimated factors into information set. In the second step I use statistical information criteria to select optimal instruments and eventually I obtain confidence intervals on parameters using bootstrap method. In NKPC context all these methods were used for the first time and can also be used independently. Their combination however provides synergistic effect that helps to improve the properties of estimates and to check the efficiency of given steps. Obtained results suggest that NKPC model can explain Czech inflation dynamics fairly well and provide some support for underlying theory. Among other things the results imply that the policy of disinflation may not be as costly with respect to a loss in aggregate product as earlier versions of Phillips curve would indicate. However, finding a good proxy for real economic activity has proved to be a difficult task. In particular we demonstrated that results are conditional on how the measure is calculated, some measures even showed countercyclical behaviour. This issue -- in the thesis discussed only in passing -- is a subject of future research. In addition to the proposed strategy and provided parameter estimates the thesis brings some partial simulation-based findings. Simulations elaborate on earlier literature on naive bootstrap in GMM context and study performance of bootstrap modifications of unit root and KPSS test.
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Comparison of the labor market in the Czech Republic and Catalonia
Dědová, Markéta ; Brožová, Dagmar (advisor) ; Dudáková, Tereza (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the comparison of the labor market of the Czech Republic and Catalonia. In the introductory part I will present the two countries using comparison of the basic labor market indicators of both countries, where attention is paid to the role of the European Union's and the Eurozone's impact on the labor market in both countries.First, I will focus on the analysis of development of unemployment according to education, where I will pay attencion to the connection between unemployment and educational attainment, which proceeds from the assumption, that with rising qualification the unemployment rate of the group should decline. Then I decided to analyze the labor market with the use of economic instruments, which are using one of the the components of the labor market, unemloyment, as a variable. That is the Okun's Law, the Phillip's curve and the Beveridge's curve, when at created graphs I will confirm or disprove given assumptions. In the final part I will create econometric models to help examine the interdependence of variables and I shall evaluate the validity of the Phillip's curve and the Beveridge's curve.
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Analysis of inflation dynamics in Czech Republic
Hubálek, Ondřej ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
Bachelor work is focused on analysis of inflation dynamics in Czech Republic using econometric models. Inflation with its impacts, costs and possibilities of measuring is described in the first part of this work. There is also described influence of Czech national bank on inflation progress and inflation targeting. Part also contains basic econometric models for inflation analysis and models of adaptive expectations. Consequently there is described theory of econometrics analysis, focused on ordinary least squares method. There are also described factors that can negatively influence significance of estimated models. In the concrete it is heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and multicolinearity. The empirical part contains econometric analysis of inflation in Czech Republic by itself, using models described in theoretical part. There are also used other models, coming out of economic hypothesis. In the end there are selected models for inflation prediction.
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Theory of the Phillip`s curve and its application in selected EU countries
Hladík, Ondřej ; Mirvald, Michal (advisor) ; Chytil, Zdeněk (referee)
This bachelor project deal with practical usage of Phillip`s curve. In theoretical part of my project I will focus on description and development of this economic model. Empirical part will investigate relation between inflation rate and rate of unemployment in choice EU countries and in the Czech Republic during years 1998 -- 2009. I will compare results and try to answer on the question, if it is possible to use Samuelson`s a Solow`s version of Phillip`s curve in current economies. At created graphs I will examine possible similarity with this concept in single periods and I`ll mention similarity with other concepts, too. Final part of bachelor project will be creation of econometric model, which I`ll compare with modified version of Phillip`s curve (Samuelson, Solow) and find out, whether exist interdependence between inflation rate and rate of unemployment, eventually I`ll try to explain model by integration of the other quantity (e.g. adaptive expectation).
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Inflation, unemployment, Phillips curve
Foltýn, Ondřej ; Brada, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Langer, Miroslav (referee)
The topic of my publication is Inflation, unemployment, Phillips curve.In first part, there are a principles about inflation and unemployment. There are a definition, dividing, NAIRU and nature rate of unemployment. In the second part, there are a analyses about types of Phillips curves. There are a Phillips model, Samuelson-Solow model, Friedman (Phelps)model, Lucas model, NKPC. There is a analyse of inflation and unemployment. In the last part, there are a analyses of PC in Czech Republic and theory of extreme rate of unemployment influence inflation.
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Analýza vývoje inflace v ČR
Ageyeva, Anna ; Tichý, Filip (advisor) ; Čížek, Ondřej (referee)
Ve první kapitole je dán teoretický přehled inflace, a to vymezení pojmu inflace, metody měření inflace, náklady a důsledky inflace a typy inflace. Druhá kapitola obsahuje teoretické základy ekonometrické analýzy inflace pomocí Phillipsovy křivky ve dvou podobách tj. klasická a neoklasická Phillipsova křivka. Třetí kapitola obsahuje empirickou analýzu vývoje inflace v ČR. Obsahuje čtyři alternativní formy Phillipsovy křivky, verifikaci ekonometrického modelu a ex post analýzu.
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