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Unconventional monetary policy after the collapse of Lehman Brothers
Dragoun, Josef ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Dvořák, Michal (referee)
This diploma thesis is focused on unconventional monetary policy tools that individual central banks introduced into practise as a response to the global financial crisis. It is about quantitative easing policy, foreign exchange interventions with exchange rate commitment and negative interest rates. This thesis also deals with classical tools of monetary policy such as open market operations, discount tools, minimum requirement reserve or foreign exchange interventions. The aim of the thesis is to document the development of central banks policy and then to examine relationship of selected assets in comparison with balance sheet of Federal reserve systems with help of correlation coefficient. The thesis also deals with the thought how should behave in the zero lower bound environment and what are the pitfalls of unconventional monetary policy.
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The impacts of foreign exchange interventions on economy of the Czech Republic
Koblížková, Petra ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Šaroch, Stanislav (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to evaluate both short term and long term impact of foreign exchange interventions, which were initiated by Czech central bank in November 2015, on the Czech economy. The first part of the text deals with theoretical aspects of the thesis, especially with the role of central bank and exchange rate, and with the historical development of both the monetary policy in the Czech Republic and Czech crown. Second part of the work investigates the causes that have led to the initiation of intervention régime and tries to clarify whether the triggering was truly justified. The main part of the thesis deals with the launch of interventions itself and also with the short term and longterm impacts on macroeconomic indicators. The end of the work is dedicated to a discussion of intervention regime exit, both to the time aspect and possible scenarios.
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Impact of Czech National Bank´s foreign exchange intervention on the trade balance of the Czech Republic
Blumtritt, Jakub ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Jiránková, Martina (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze and evaluate the effect of the Czech National Bank´s foreign exchange intervention on the trade balance of the Czech Republic. For this purpose a hypothesis was set, that in the short-term the devaluation of the Czech currency causes deterioration of the trade balance and only after some time has passed the trade balance starts to grow. In theory this effect is known as the J-curve hypothesis. The first chapter summarizes theoretical knowledge about monetary policy and exchange rate theory. The second chapter analyzes the development of commodity and territorial structure of the Czech trade balance from 2000 to 2013. The third chapter focuses on the foreign exchange intervention itself and provides arguments for and against this measure taken by the Czech National Bank. The fourth chapter is the most important one for acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis set. It uses the Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the impact of devaluation on the trade balance of Czech Republic with Germany. Subsequently outcomes of this model are compared to the real statistical data of Czech trade.
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Consequences of foreign exchange intervention on the economy of the Czech Republic
Košická, Monika ; Titze, Miroslav (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
Czech Republic is currently struggling with the threat of deflation, therefore the CNB has used the foreign exchange interventions to prevent this. The thesis examines the current state of the economy and aims to answer the question whether the depreciation of the crown truly prevent deflation and a possible deflationary spiral. To achieve the objective are used comparison methods, descriptions, observations and analysis, including relational analysis. The theoretical part focuses on the theoretical impacts of depreciation of the crown from a macroeconomic point of view. Furthermore, solves the problem of deflation and for example describes the deflation in Japan. In the practical part I compare the views of the CNB and other alternative views on this situation. In the final part I analyse GDP, export and import, terms of trade, consumption and inflation. Based on this analysis, I conclude that although that there was an improvement of some macroeconomic indicators, we can't ascribe the improvement to the foreign-exchange interventions.
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Foreing Exchange Intervention of the CNB and their short-term impact on foreign trade
Zubíková, Adéla ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
This thesis analyzes the causes and effects of foreign exchange intervention of Czech National Bank (CNB) in November 2013. Instrument of foreign exchange interventions was chosen because of the limited effectiveness of other instruments of monetary expansion, when the economy is in the liquidity trap. Due to the current low interest rates it's not possible to draw on the experience of using the CNB's foreign exchange interventions between 2001 and 2002, the work therefore presents a comparison of short-term interventions impact with the impact of foreign exchange interventions in Switzerland, whose motive for the announcement of the foreign exchange rate commitment was similar. Based on the analysis of macroeconomic variables before and after the initiation of interventions is examined the hypothesis that foreign exchange interventions didn't have a significant impact on the domestic economy in the short term. Part of this work is to analyze the impact of interventions on foreign trade. Thesis verifies the hypothesis that short-term impact of foreign exchange interventions was consistent with the concept of J-curve. To verify this hypothesis is used time series analysis for selected commodities of foreign trade. The results of the study confirm a hypothesis as the weak impact of the intervention on the domestic economy and the validity of the concept of J-curve for the majority of selected commodities.
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Analysis of the impact of foreign exchange interventions of the Czech National Bank in the years 1993-2013
Kuchařová, Martina ; Štekláč, Jiří (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
The bachelor thesis is analyzing the impact of foreign exchange intervention by Czech National Bank in years 1993 -- 2013. The main goal is to analyze and evaluate impact of realized monetary policies, especially of foreign exchange intervention, on real economics. First, I am elaborating on theoretical background of concept of central bank and I am trying to provide comprehensible explanation about its role in forming monetary policy of the country. Particular instruments and their application by Czech National Bank are also introduced. In practical section of the bachelor thesis I am showing usage of individual monetary policy tools in the past in the context of economically situation of the Czech Republic. The bachelor thesis presents to the reader basic idea about status and activity of the central bank of our country and about impact of realized measures on real economy.
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Analysis of the Balance of Payments of Czech Republic
Pechová, Kateřina ; Pavlík, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Koubalíková, Jitka (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the balance of payments of the Czech Republic since its accession to the European Union, in the period 2004-2014. The term "balance of payments" is defined in the theoretical part of the thesis, so is its horizontal and vertical structure and also the theory of the external economic balance. The theory of balance of payments is described according to the fifth and also the sixth edition of the Manual of the International Monetary Fund (BPM). The analytical part of the thesis describes particular accounts in the observed time period with reference to changes in trends. In this chapter is also assessed the impact that the accession to the European Union had on the external economic balance of the Czech Republic. The final chapter is devoted to a case study of the foreign exchange intervention made by the Czech National Bank in November 2013.
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The current decision-making process of SNB as a possible way for CNB
Hořáková, Gabriela ; Vostrovská, Zdenka (advisor) ; Pavelek, Petr (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to compare the reasons that encouraged SNB to abandon its peg against the euro in January 2015 with potential decision-making process of ČNB in conjunction with the current situation of currency interventions in the Czech Republic. The subject is chosen considering its high topicality and macroeconomic importance. The basis of the empirical research is the theoretical grounding of central banking and the issue of price level changes with focus on monetary policy and deflation. Based on the observed macroeconomic indicators, the text continues by the analysis of the Czech economy 1,5 years after currency interventions and the Swiss currency interventions since 2009. With reference to the reasons of their abandonment by SNB the thesis is completed with the application on the current situation in the Czech Republic. According to the paper's findings, it was concluded that the situation in the Czech Republic does not indicate similar decision-making process of ČNB.
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The impact of Czech national bank foreign exchange interventions on czech economy during 2014
Hladík, Tomáš ; Vostrovská, Zdenka (advisor) ; Řežábek, Pavel (referee)
This thesis analyzes development of selected macroeconomic indicators in the last two years. Czech National Bank selected foreign exchange interventions as the most suitable instrument for further easing of monetary policy and the main reason for their initiation was the risk of deflation at the beginning of 2014. This research compares condition of Czech economy in the period before interventions and then one year after. By combining data analysis with theoretical findings I reached the conclusion that interventions could not affect price developments in such a short period of time. On the other hand, other indicators showed significant improvement, which supported economic growth during 2014.
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