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The Austrian business cycle theory: empirical evidence
Komrska, Martin ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Zemplinerová, Alena (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis is to empirically investigate the explanatory power of Austrian business cycle theory. My dataset consists of US quarterly time series within the period between 1971 and 2009. As regards the NBER classification, this dataset covers six complete business cycles, including the recent global financial crisis. Following Wainhouse (1984), Keeler (2001) and Bjerkenes et al. (2010) I use Granger causality as one of the primary tools of the analysis. Moreover I also add Impulse response functions to discover the direction of observed relationships. As regards my primary group of hypotheses I found significant empirical evidence for the connection between changes in interest rate and structure of production. The secondary group of hypotheses is less successful; however I found the very first empirical illustration of Garrison's version of ABCT.
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The impact of speculators on the commodity markets
El-Moussawi, Chadi ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Derner, Tomáš (referee)
In the recent years, there has been growing talk of investing in commodities in the financial markets. In the past, the commodity markets served for purposes of the producers and the end-users of commodities. With gradual innovation of the financial markets in the 19th and 20th century the modern commodity markets evolved and became more standardized. This process was accompanied by the increasing interest of financial speculators. In contrast with the commercial participants, the goal of these new investors in the commodity markets is not to hedge against adverse changes in commodity prices but to profit on the price movements of commodities. The inflow of this group was intensified by the development of new financial instruments enabling these investors to enter the commodity markets. It is undisputable that speculators have positive effect on the markets, by providing liquidity and lowering transaction costs. What remains to be answered is the real effect which the speculators have on the commodity prices, and if their action does not create distortion in the commodity prices. The price development on the commodity markets during the recent financial crisis gives strong arguments in the hands of those accusing the speculators of the negative impact on the commodity prices, which sometimes lead to creation of price bubbles. The goal of this thesis will be the analysis of the effect of speculators on the commodity markets, and if this prejudice is justified.
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Inflation analysis and its comparison in the Czech Republic and Germany
Maxa, Jan ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of this paper is to analyse and compare inflation and its dynamics between two countries -- the Czech Republic and Germany -- applying a special kind of econometric models. The first part of this paper is dedicated to economic theory of inflation -- fundamental terms, measuring methods and its targeting. The monetary policy in the Czech Republic and Germany is also shortly introduced. Next chapter tries to describe the econometric concept which is used in this paper -- vector autoregression model (VAR model). In connection with the VAR models, Granger causality, impulse response function, cointegration and error correction model are mentioned as well. The empirical part includes application of selected models on real time series of macroeconomic indicators. Next to the interpretation of results, the forecasts are also implemented.
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Statistical analysis and verification of selected gold price determinants
Stolbov, Anatoly ; Borovička, Adam (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee)
As the title diligent, the aim of this paper is empirical analysis of the relationship between gold price and factors that may affect it. Analysis has included next expected determinants: inflation, inflation volatility, credit risk and the gold's beta coefficient. The study was based on monthly observations. As main instrument, the vector autoregressive models were chosen. Main points of analysis have been found out by Granger causality tests and impulse-response function. Dependence of the gold prices on inflation was proved at 1% significance level. Despite the theoretical expectations dependence is negative in short-run. Dependence of gold prices on USD exchange rate was proved at 10% significance level. Also, the positive dependence of gold price on USD depreciation was confirmed. The significance of other determinants hasn't been proven.
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The role of the Hollywood film industry during the business cycle in the first decade of the 21 century
Hanáčková, Michaela ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Hřebík, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to examine the relationship between the course of the business cycle and the cycle of the Hollywood film industry. In the introductory section are raised theoretical approaches to the economic cycle, which seeks to clarify the causes of decline of economic activity, and compares the different recommendations. The next section is devoted to clarify the specifics of the film industry and provides a better understanding of non-transparent processes within the industry. The analytical part tests the causal relationship between the economic situation of the individual and the Hollywood studios, based on a sample of 90 observations using the Granger causality test and VAR model. Prior to empirical testing is provided a comprehensive analysis of the industry cycles from the inception to the present and is compared to the economic activity of the country. Finally, the confirmation or refutation of dependence and the result is compared with economic theory.
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Causality between money and economic growth in Czech republic
Krhovský, Karel ; Hudík, Marek (advisor) ; Janíčko, Martin (referee)
The aim of this work is to explore in the spirit of Monetary Economics various correlations and links between economic growth on the one hand and monetary aggregate M2, credits, government spending and interest rates on the other hand. Using macro-economic aggregates and statistical methods in empirical verification of selected assumptions, however, indirectly we get to the heart of the dispute on its own methodology in economics. Leaned to Milton Friedman's methodological positivism on quarterly data related to CR in the period 1996 - 2008 we will seek to determine to what extent and whether economic growth is affected by excessive monetary expansion and growth of debt. Therefore, the extent to which money was served as a source of economic growth. The data confirmed the expected dependence of GDP on cash variables, however, in transforming the data on first-order difference was the explained variation of models not too high. Inclusion of interest rates in the multiple regression model, the model did not increase the quality and the correlation between economic growth and it has not been demonstrated.
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Analysis of Seasonality in the Czech Construction
Šimpach, Ondřej ; Arltová, Markéta (advisor) ; Hušek, Roman (referee)
The output of the National economy of the Czech Republic is conditioned by a sum of important factors. There are sectors, which increased power during the last two decades, mainly due to expansion of modern technologies and knowledge workers. One of this is Construction. Construction is specific to its position in the economy and in particular is characterized by the greatest seasonality ever. However, this is not a problem for statistical analysis, rather a benefit. Modern approaches allow us to analyze seasonal fluctuations. From selected data we are able to construct evolutionary forecasts. The work will be performed for the most important indicators in the Czech Construction. The outcome of the paper will be conditional forecasts of these indicators. It will also make analyze of the relationship between these indicators and other variables that might affected it. The work is practical application of stochastic modeling approach by Box and Jenkins, augmented by more modern approaches, such as verification of Granger causality and co-integration and testing of seasonal unit roots by Hylleberg et al.
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Models of inflation and its volatility in CZ
Bisová, Sára ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee)
This paper focuses on analysing and modelling inflation and its dynamics in Czech Republic applying a special kind of econometric models. Firstly economic theory of inflation is mentioned - fundamental terms, measuring methods of inflation, the way Czech national bank is monitoring the inflation and obviously a short summary of historical evolution of inflation in Czech economy. In the second part of this paper two econometric concepts of modelling time series are introduced - vector autoregression models (VAR models) and volatility models, concretely ARCH and GARCH models. In connection with the VAR models, Granger causality, impulse response functions, cointegration and error correction models are described. The empirical part includes application of selected models on real time series of chosen macroeconomic indicators. The estimation outputs are interpreted and forecasts are implemented. The quality of chosen econometric models for modelling inflation in Czech Republic is discussed.
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Transmission mechanism of Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve System
Petříková, Eva ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
This thesis analyses the chief relations inside the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve System during the period from 1955 to 2007. The theoretical part of the thesis describes the principles of the history of Federal Reserve and his monetary policy, the development of Fed's monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, the lags in the monetary policy and various theories which deal with try to explain the monetary policy relations. In the analytical part I focus on answering the most laid questions whether, how much and for how long do the nominal interest rates and monetary aggregates affect the real variables (mainly the real domestic product) of the United States. Next I focus on investigating the monetarist assumption of money neutrality in the long run. I also introduce Granger causality and Impulse and Responses investigations into proposed VAR model.
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