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Does trading strategy based on overreaction and stock-bond decoupling generate additional profits?
Bosák, Martin ; Čech, František (advisor) ; Baruník, Jozef (referee)
Studying whether new trading rules provide higher returns than the buy-and-hold strategy is relevant for both finance theory and the asset management field. In this thesis, we examine the profitability of the newly proposed trading strategy based on the concept of price overreaction on eight developed stock indices. In comparison to other studies, we extend a definition of price overreaction with an inclusion of a minimum volatility threshold. Based on the Ordinary Least Squares model, we find that a volatility condition significantly improves the predictability of return reversals after positive price overreaction. For comparison with the buy-and-hold, we use Hansen's Superior Predictive Ability test that corrects the data snooping bias. Despite better annualised returns during in-sample and out-of-sample periods, the results show that the proposed strategy is not superior to the buy-and-hold at any stock index due to heavy reliance on the predictions of the largest declines. Nevertheless, we confirm the effect of decoupling (flight to quality) that can positively affect our strategy, but only when we do not take into account transaction costs. In the end, we summarize behavioural concepts that lie behind our strategy as the overreaction and decoupling are mostly justified with cognitive biases.
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Evaluation of the Investment Efficiency
Hanus, Jan ; Martens, Radek (referee) ; Ptáček, Roman (advisor)
The diploma thesis deals with the evaluation of the investments realization and financing of the investment to build the new hall with production line to achieving the expansion of production. The thesis includes assessment of the company´s financial situation, evaluation of the effectiveness of the investment plan. The essence of the thesis is to appropriate way of realizing the investments and determine economic benefit.
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Management of free capital on the financial market
Malo, Dominik ; Dostál, Petr (referee) ; Budík, Jan (advisor)
This diploma thesis deals with the management of free capital of a selected company on the financial market with a focus on mutual funds and ETFs. The result is the construction and analysis of the potential appreciation of the investment strategy interpreted through historical data and a comparison of the results with alternative options for the appreciation of financial capital, especially in the form of mutual funds.
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Application of Mathematical and Statistical Methods in Company Management
Brančík, Jakub ; Janková, Zuzana (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
This master thesis deals with the investment recommendation for Czechoslovak Com- mercial Bank, a.s. The recommendation is based on business strategy based on Fibonacci retracement and analysis of the current risks of financial markets. The first part deals with the parameters and the results of the business strategy. Second part proposes investment and non-investment recommendations. At the end of the thesis are summarized all aspects of the research.
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Entropy as a Measure of Predictability in Financial Time Series
Nahodil, Vladimír ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Wang, Yao (referee)
This work studies stock markets efficiency and predictability using the information-theoretic concepts of approximate entropy (ApEn) and sample entropy (SampEn) and compares them to the estimates of the Hurst exponent. This is assessed together with the property of distinguishing between developing and developed markets. Moreover, an investment strategy based on the value of the sample entropy is tested. ApEn shows very weak relationship with other measures and performs poorly as a measure of efficiency. SampEn and the Hurst exponent clearly confirm lower overall efficiency of developing markets. The sample entropy also forms quite strong downward linear relationship with hit-rates of forecasting models. ARMA shows highest hit-rates in periods with SampEn values around 1.6 - 1.7. This could be considered as an investment strategy with lower risk; however, also as one with potentially lower accumulated returns due to smaller investing windows.
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Investment Strategies for Stock Trading in the US Market
Janičko, Adam ; Stoklásek, Libor (referee) ; Budík, Jan (advisor)
This master thesis aims at creating automatic trading system, which consists of design, implementation, optimization and testing, on U.S stock market. The algorithm is based on trend identification using falling and rising price minimums and maximums over a certain time interval. Based on the identified trend, the algorithm places buy or sell orders on the stock exchange, which parameters are calculated using Keltner Channel and Stochastic Oscillator indicators.
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The yield, risk and liquidity of investment options
PETRŽÍLKOVÁ, Michaela
In the financial market there are several subjects that are called surplus units and deficit units. Surplus units may be simply called investors. They try to evaluate their free financial funds in the financial market, under the condition of a good knowledge of the financial-market function mechanism. The thesis thus first clarifies the problem of financial market, the characteristics and characterisation of investments, the investment strategy and investment options. This is followed by an introduction to the individual investor and to the chosen funds of collective investment and especially by their comparison based on their productivity, risk and liquidity. The result of the thesis is a constructing a model investment portfolio and recommendation of an optimal investment strategy.
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The yield, risk and liquidity of investment options
KOLÁŘOVÁ, Monika
This diploma thesis is devoted to the topic of yield, risk and liquidity of investment possibilities. The thesis is divided into two parts, the theoretical and the practical one. The theoretical part is based on a thorough study of specialized literature. Attention is initially focused on the definition and the characteristics of investments, then the issue of the financial market and its segments is clarified. The following chapter discusses investment strategies and the creation of rational investment portfolios. The theoretical part concludes with the description of selected possibilities of individual and collective investment. The practical part of the thesis is initially focused on the characteristics of two different types of investors A and B and the creation of their individual risk profiles. This section is based on information gained from the unstructured interview with two independent investors. Eventually, the reader is familiarized with selected possibilities of collective investment and their assessment in terms of yield, risk and liquidity. This chapter is primarily processed by analysis of data obtained from the websites of selected investment companies. Data are processed through Microsoft Excel with the help of selected functions. The study results in recommendations of optimal investment strategies in form of the compilation and the assessment of several investment portfolios for both Investor A and Investor B.
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