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Analysis of the impact of foreign exchange interventions of the Czech National Bank in the years 1993-2013
Kuchařová, Martina ; Štekláč, Jiří (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
The bachelor thesis is analyzing the impact of foreign exchange intervention by Czech National Bank in years 1993 -- 2013. The main goal is to analyze and evaluate impact of realized monetary policies, especially of foreign exchange intervention, on real economics. First, I am elaborating on theoretical background of concept of central bank and I am trying to provide comprehensible explanation about its role in forming monetary policy of the country. Particular instruments and their application by Czech National Bank are also introduced. In practical section of the bachelor thesis I am showing usage of individual monetary policy tools in the past in the context of economically situation of the Czech Republic. The bachelor thesis presents to the reader basic idea about status and activity of the central bank of our country and about impact of realized measures on real economy.
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Analysis of the Balance of Payments of Czech Republic
Pechová, Kateřina ; Pavlík, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Koubalíková, Jitka (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the balance of payments of the Czech Republic since its accession to the European Union, in the period 2004-2014. The term "balance of payments" is defined in the theoretical part of the thesis, so is its horizontal and vertical structure and also the theory of the external economic balance. The theory of balance of payments is described according to the fifth and also the sixth edition of the Manual of the International Monetary Fund (BPM). The analytical part of the thesis describes particular accounts in the observed time period with reference to changes in trends. In this chapter is also assessed the impact that the accession to the European Union had on the external economic balance of the Czech Republic. The final chapter is devoted to a case study of the foreign exchange intervention made by the Czech National Bank in November 2013.
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The impact of foreign exchange intervetion of CNB on international trade of Czech Republic
Mikšík, Matěj ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to analyze the impact of currency depreciation caused by foreing exchange intervention of Czech National Bank in November 2013 on international trade between Czech Republic and Germany. The volume of foreign trade of Czech Republic has been growing, but Czech Republic gradually loses commercial potential. The standart view of the impact of foreign exchange intervention is to stimulate export. But the theoretical concept called J-curve states that currency depreciation leads at first to the decrease of net export in the short run. To increase net export the Marshall-Lerner condition has to be met. The work verifies the hypothesis that after foreign exchange intervention the decrease of net export occurs before improving. Research uses cointegration analysis and Error correction model on the basis of quarter data from the first quarter of year 2005 to the second quarter of year 2014. The results confirms the concept of J-Curve in the bilateral trade of Czech Republic and Germany. In the first two quarters after foreign exchange intervention there is the decrease in net export. The Marshall-Lerner condition is met during the second quarter and the depreciation of the crown leads to the expected growth in net export.
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Inflation targeting in an environment of deflationary pressures
Krupička, Josef ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Revenda, Zbyněk (referee)
This research paper on monetary policy focuses on strategy of inflation targeting and its modification in an environment of deflationary pressures. Focus of this paper is based on three main points that correspond to the content of individual chapters. The first point is a theoretical analysis of the main attributes of inflation targeting with emphasis on analysis of the functioning of the transmission channels. The second point is an analysis of implementation of this strategy in the Czech National Bank and in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. In this point separate analysis was made of the development of inflation targeting and transformation of relationship between macroeconomic variables in transmission mechanism. The third point then debates the modification of monetary policy instruments in the context of inflation targeting adopted by the Czech National Bank, with an emphasis on the introduction of exchange rate commitment. Throughout the work are used simple methods for analysis with further emphasis on the actuality. The conclusion summarizes the findings and evaluates the modification of the inflation targeting strategy as a positive phenomenon in the context of evolution of monetary policy.
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Analysis of influence of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between the Czech Republic and Germany
Dvouletý, Ondřej ; Říhová, Gabriela (advisor) ; Skopeček, Jan (referee)
Study analyses the influence of the real exchange rate on the real trade balance between the Czech Republic and Germany, using quarterly data for the period 2000 -- 2014. Previous empirical studies are summarized and their method is used for this analysis. Data are multiplied by consumer price index to achieve real variables and then transformed into natural logarithms. Used variables are trade balance, export, gross domestic products of the Czech Republic and Germany and dummy variables representing economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 and monetary intervention of the Czech National Bank in autumn 2013. All variables were tested for stationarity and were found to be non-stationary, fortunately cointegration among variables was proved. Results failed to prove existence of J-curve concept. Results indicate, that in the short run after depreciation the real trade balance increases, but after that decreases. Economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 led to decrease of the real trade balance. Intervention of the Czech National Bank did not lead in the short run to a decrease of the real trade balance. Granger causality test between the real export, the real trade balance and the real exchange rate did not prove any causal relationships.
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Unconventional monetary policy in theory and empirical evidence
LEXA, David
The Diploma thesis deals with unconventional monetary policies,that important central banks used in order to cope with global financial and economic crisis in recent years. Goals of the paper is to introduce the most significant unconventional monetary policies, analyze their effectivity in selected countries (Japan, USA, Great Britain, eurozone and Czech republic), and statistically test impact of these nonstandard approaches on international trade.
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Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves of Bank of Russia in the Years 2004 - 2012
Vlazneva, Anna ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on the analysis of foreign exchange reserves of Bank of Russia in the years 2004 -- 2012. The first chapter explains the most important theoretical terms, knowledge of which is necessary to understanding the topic, and describes the theoretical approaches to determining the minimum or optimal level of reserve holdings. The next section is devoted to the Bank of Russia, instruments of monetary policy it uses and a special regime of exchange reserves accumulation, related to Russia's position as one of the world's largest exporters. The last part concerns with the analysis of Russia's foreign exchange reserve holdings in the years 2004 -- 2012 from the various views and is closed with calculating the minimum level of reserve holdings required by indicators described in the theoretical part.
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The role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency and major currency in international trade
Škodáčková, Marcela ; Mandel, Martin (advisor)
Bretton Woods established a system of payments based on the dollar. Despite declining value in time, US dollar still plays an important role in foreign exchange markets and in in-ternational trade. This bachelor thesis examines the status of the U.S. dollar as a global re-serve currency and major international currency across several key areas. Dollar dominates in foreign exchange markets (foreign exchange intervention), in banking (reserve accumula-tion), in trade or financial transactions and it is mostly used as monetary anchor. Since 1970s, American dollars has been held by foreign institutions outside the United States. Herewith, a new element in the global economy -- Eurodollars -- arose. Eurodollar deposits are attractive for investors because they are free of most regulatory burdens imposed by U.S. authorities. The emergence of the euro as a major currency and global competitor fuelled the debate over the dollars international role. Accordingly, there are some predictions whether euro or some supranational currency might in the future rival or surpass the dollar as the world's reserve and major currency in international trade.
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