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How Financial Markets Assess the State of Major Economies
Němeček, Josef ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Czesaný, Slavoj (referee)
In accordance with its main goal, the main thesis shows which published data and indicators contemporary financial markets use to assess the state of major economies and forecast their short-term future development. Using Bloomberg as the primary source, the thesis provides a detailed analysis of the indicators and surveys sought by finance professionals when assessing the performance of the economy in the United States, the euro-zone (with emphasis on Germany) and, in the context of the impact on the global economy and markets, in China and Japan. A preliminary hypothesis about the similarity or closeness between the theoretical view and the practical approach of financial markets has been refuted. Instead, after close scrutiny and detailed analysis, we have established that financial markets put great emphasis on forward-looking indicators and monetary policy. This emphasis was confirmed by a survey of local investors. Using expert opinion and analysis, the thesis charts an overview of select economic indicators and their over- (payrolls, consumer sentiment) or undervaluation (regional Fed activity indexes, CFNAI).
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DOT.COM BUBBLE, CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, PRESENT
Cakl, Martin ; Titze, Miroslav (advisor) ; Pfeifer, Lukáš (referee)
Topic of this thesis is crisis which has developed in year 2000. Thesis is divided into two main fractions and then into multiple sub chapters. First part is focused on theoretical basis on which thesis later develops. Second part analyzes causes and implications dot.com crisis had and finally uses the same analysis for current situation at internet market segment. Thesis argues that main causes of the bubble were analytics, speculation, monetary policy and overall positive environment towards investing into internet companies. Furthermore thesis implies, that there might be another bubble arising as internet companies, especially so called social media companies, have highly overvalued stock prices and thus might cause downfall upon eventual correction.
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Rizikovost finančních trhů a její dopad na důchodový systém
Štěpánek, Martin ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Stádník, Bohumil (referee)
Financial unsustainability of pension systems in developed economies looms large on the horizon due to increasing life expectancy and continuous drop in fertility. In spite of a broad discussion, there has been but a little consensus on appropriate remedy. One aspect partially neglected in the literature is vulnerability of pension systems to market imperfections and economic shocks. I present three basic types of pension schemes adopted across all developed countries - pure PAYG, fully-funded, and mixed (multipillar) scheme - and examine effects of various risks -- particularly market risk, interest rate risk, investment risk, and longevity risk -- on their functioning. The analysis shows that while no pension scheme is immune to external influences, the multipillar scheme provides the best results thanks to appropriate risk diversification.
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Investment opportunities of citizens in the Czech Republic
Antal, Radoslav ; Bartošová, Jitka (advisor) ; Krejčová, Iva (referee)
The aim of the Master Thesis is to find the suitable product for investing in capital markets for small investors. Partial aim is to fully and clearly describe the very principle of functioning of capital markets in a clear and understandable way. The aim is also analysis of selected investment instrument, evaluation of the risk and impact assessment of possible loss of funds to the investor, which has to be take into consideration in each investment. Since the thesis is about investing in the capital markets, the risk of loosing of the invested funds is relatively high. This thesis also characterizes the way in which this risk can be eliminated as much as possible to achieve the desired return on investment.
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Financial markets regulation
Pokorný, Tomáš ; Ježek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Zajíček, Miroslav (referee)
The financial markets have undergone a very dramatic evolution in the last 100 years. Multiple attempts to regulate the evolution were part of the development. They reacted mostly on economic crises, whether on the capital market or in the banking sector. This thesis describes the developments in the US and European financial markets. Most important part of the thesis contains an analysis of the causes, course of action and impacts of the financial crisis, it evaluates current crisis in the terms of functionality of the financial crisis regulation system as well as suggestions and discussions how tho improve regulation in the USA and the European Union.
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Investigating Risk-On, Risk-Off patterns in global financial markets
Tročil, Jan ; Klosová, Anna (advisor) ; Vanduffel, Steven (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyse the increased correlation within four major asset groups (Government Bonds, Equity Indices, Commodities and Currencies) from the beginning of Great Recession till July 2014. The effect of increased correlation is called Risk-On Risk-Off and is connected to problems, where investors struggle to create risk-oriented portfolios and instead minimalize loss. The methods analysing the correlations are Absolute Average Value Index (AAVI) and Heat-map analysis. The AAVI is transforming correlation matrix into a single number and investigating the intensity of correlations. The Heat-map is studying the relationship between any two assets. The results from this study were that the RORO effect was present during Great Recession with intensity never seen before and that in June 2014 the values are close to pre-recession levels.
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Analýza kryptoměn jako finančních instrumentů
Bartoš, Jakub ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
This paper analyzes cryptocurrencies as financial instruments. Firstly, we introduced the main features of cryptocurrencies and summarized the brief history. We found out that price of the most famous cryptocurrency Bitcoin follows the hypothesis of efficient markets and it immediately react on publicly announce information. Furthermore, Bitcoin can be seen as standard economic good that is priced by interaction of supply and demand on the market. These factors can be driven by macro financial development or by speculative investors, but there weren't found any significant impact of these factors on price of Bitcoin. CAPM shows the high risk of cryptocurrencies, but it could be still good instrument for diversification.
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Efficiency of regulation models in financial markets in environment of monetary policy changes.
Stehlík, Jan ; Štekláč, Jiří (advisor) ; Titze, Miroslav (referee)
This paper examines models of supervision and regulation over the financial market and their impact on volatility of interest rates according to monetary policy changes. Its goal is to judge if some of these models aren't less effective and cause higher volatility and if the assumption of market stability is provided. It looks into monetary policy changes and their impact on financial market, interest rates and their development in time of these changes. It analyzes correlation of monetary policy and financial market and gives characteristics of each of regulation models. Using the method of graphical analysis, this paper compares reactions of short- and longterm interest rates (Treasury bills and 10years government yields) in relevant countries during monetary change applications. It examines also official offered rate and real interbank rate and its' spreads. As indicator of financial market stress is used Libor-OIS spread. It evaluates the influence of models used in different countries in each given situation.
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Future of the Supervisory Arrangement in the Financial Market of the European Union
Machová, Soňa ; Karpová, Eva (advisor) ; Šaroch, Stanislav (referee) ; Veselá, Jitka (referee) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
This work deals with the supervision structure of the EU financial market. The current supervisory framework is the result of recent reforms adopted in response to the global financial crisis. However it seems that it is not able to satisfy all the requirements stemming not only from highly integrated EU financial market environment, but also from the functioning of the single currency and common monetary policy. Therefore the European Commission presented a proposal for the creation of a banking union - single banking supervisor for eurozone countries. It is a solution that could solve many problems of the current system, however it may carry certain risks involved especially in the setting of different conditions between EU countries and between different sectors of the financial market. In the long run, therefore, the European Supervisory System along the lines of the European System of Central Banks would present the most appropriate model for the EU financial market, which should, compare to the banking union, be applied to all sectors and all Member States. Its implementation should, however, be preceded by a consolidation of the economic situation and the harmonization of certain related issues, the functioning of which can significantly affect the whole system.
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