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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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The analysis of an impact of realised projects of the OP Prague - the competitiveness of program period 2007-2013
Kellnerová, Markéta ; Wokoun, René (advisor) ; Krejčová, Nikola (referee)
The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate an impact of realized projects of Prague operating program The competitiveness on a development of the Prague region. Theoretical part is dedicated to formation and development of regional politics, consequent establishment of the EU and its dividing into the program periods including given aims. Subsequently, the dissertation examines the possibilities of using the funds of the EU, after, these possibilities are discussed, specifically for the CZ. Due to the fact, that it is the OP which is referred only to the capital city Prague, one chapter is given to this issue. The last section of the theoretical part is an implementation of the OP. The practical part is concerned about quantitative and financial analysis of the OP, which is divided into the program years. In the end of the practical part, an effect of the OP is totally evaluated, mainly its impact on the development of Prague through horizontal subjects and achieving of set indicators. Finally, the effect on the region of Prague is evaluated, in terms of applicants for funds.
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Discussion on US sanctions against Cuba at the U.N. General Assembly
Šplíchalová, Eva ; Trávníčková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Machoň, Miloslav (referee)
The United States imposed the longest lasting sanction regime on Cuba in 1960 as a result of strained relations in recent years. Each US administration modified form of the sanctions regime, depending on the attitude toward the Cuban issue. General Assembly, the highest authority of the UN, adopts not legally binding but politically significant resolutions. Resolution condemning US sanctions regime has been adopted annually since 1992. Discussion on changes of the sanction regime in the General Assembly is a sign of reflection on current events and unrigid process of resolutions adoption. The main purpose is to determine whether the changes of the sanction regime were mentioned in the discussions on the adoption of the resolutions. The result of the analysis shows the reflection of the events in the speeches of ambassadors. The amount of mentioned events in speeches depends whether they were positive or negative step toward easing the embargo, and also how important the event was.
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Design of the pilot Business Intelligence solution for e-commerce platform
Kabrhelová, Kateřina ; Novotný, Ota (advisor) ; Vysoký, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis deals with the design of the pilot Business Intelligence solution for e-commerce platform Shopio. The first part describes the theoretical concepts of Business Intelligence and e-commerce focused on possible approaches to performance measurement of electronic commerce. Furthermore there is a comparison of analytical tools for measuring performance of e-shops which are available on the Czech market. The second part of the thesis first describes the e-commerce platform and the current status of the reporting module. Then the requirement analysis is conducted for the purpose of identifying the current company client's needs and requirements. The new Business Intelligence solution is designed based on the identified requirements described in the previous chapters. This solution is then tested and verified with the use of real e-shop data. The main purpose of this thesis is to refine the current status of the reports and provide a better tool to measure the e-shop performance for the e-shop owners.
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Analysing company's behaviour and communication on social networks
Němec, Milan ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Jelínek, Ivan (referee)
This thesis focuses on measuring company´s communication and behaviour on social networks. To capture the interaction between the company and its users the thesis uses web analytics tools. Therefore, the main objective of the thesis is analysis of these tools. To achieve this goal, the thesis characterizes social networks and their marketing opportunities for business promotion. Thanks to this, needs of using these tools is identified. The needs are: competitive analysis, optimizing communication, measuring achievement of objectives or detection competitive viral content. Research questions were determined and then analysis tools found answers to research questions. It was found that the tools provide various views of data and create a complete system for measuring and analysing behaviour and communication companies on social networks. The results were validated in a case study focused on the Facebook profile of the University of Economics in Prague. The study analysed the interaction profile of the school and its users and compared with others schools. In the results the analysis tools are validated and it is designed recommendation for improve engagement. This thesis revealed strengths and weaknesses of tools for measuring company´s communication and behaviour on social networks. It was found that these tools have wide range of use. They can be used for understanding the company's profile, its users, for purposes of competitive analysis, monitor corporate goals and optimize communications on social networks.
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The Conclusion of a Contract under the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods in Comparison with Czech National Legislation
Krčálová, Kristýna ; Boháček, Martin (advisor) ; Levý, Jan (referee)
This Master's thesis focuses on the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (CISG), better known as the Vienna Convention. The main purpose of this thesis is to evaluate conditions for application of this international treaty and to assess the contracting process under the CISG including the similarities and differences with the Czech national legislation. Finally, it seeks an answer to the question, which of these rules (international or national) are more advantageous for a Czech contractual party with respect to concluding a contract. The thesis is divided into five parts. The first one represents an introduction to the CISG, its origin and the Czech Republic's attitude to it. The second part identifies the conditions for application of the CISG and therefore defines a subject and an object of an international contract of sale under the CISG. Both third and fourth parts gradually introduce two phases of the contracting process (offer and acceptance) including the relevant case-law. The last chapter strives to complete the contracting process with an analysis of the exact moment, when a contract is concluded, as well as with an analysis of a potential battle of the forms and its impact on a contract conclusion.
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Possibilities of Big Data use for Competitive Intelligence
Verníček, Marek ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Šperková, Lucie (referee)
The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the use of Big Data for the methods and procedures of Competitive Intelligence. Among the goals of the work is a toolkit for small and large businesses which is supposed to support their work with the whole process of Big Data work. Another goal is to design an effective solution of processing Big Data to gain a competitive advantage in business. The theoretical part of the work processes available scientific literature in the Czech Republic and abroad as well as describes the current state of Competitive Intelligence, and Big Data as one of its possible sources. Subsequently, the work deals with the characteristics of Big Data, the differences from working with common data, the need for a thorough preparation and Big Data applicability for the methods of Competitive Intelligence. The practical part is focused on analysis of Big Data tools available in the market with regard to the whole process from data collection to the analysis report preparation and integration of the entire solution into an automated state. The outcome of this part is the Big Data software toolkit for small and large businesses based on their budget. The final part of the work is devoted to the classification of the most promising business areas, which can benefit from the use of Big Data the most in order to gain competitive advantages and proposes the most effective solution of working with Big Data. Among other benefits of this work are expansion of the range of resources for Competitive Intelligence and in-depth analysis of possibilities of Big Data usage, designed to help professionals make use of this hitherto untapped potential to improve market position, gain new customers and strengthen the existing user base.
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Valuation of the company Jihoměstská sociální a.s.
Hovorka, Luboš ; Smrčka, Luboš (advisor) ; Strouhal, Jiří (referee)
The goal of this master´s thesis is to perform an evaluation of the company Jihoměstská sociální a.s. on the date of evaluation of December 31st, 2015, for the purpose of a possible sale to a private company. The thesis consists of two parts: theoretical part and practical part. The theoretical part describes process and methods, which are applied in the practical part. The practical part contains an analysis of previous company´s results and forecast of the future by 2020. Next comes the valuation of Jihoměstská sociální. The conclusion discusses possibilities of sale.
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Supported Emplayment from the Perspective of Emplayers
MYŠÁKOVÁ, Hana
The philosophy of supported employment in the Czech Republic has been developing for over than twenty years. Nevertheless this service is still neglected and only a few non-profit organizations put it into practice. The service is not legislatively based and also the society does not have a clear opinion on employment of people with disabilities. Current labour market situation is not advantageous at all. Therefore some support of disabled people looking for a job is becoming more necessary and required. The employers are an important part of the whole problems, because their attitude to the idea of supported employment plays a significant role. The bachelor's thesis "Supported Employment from the Perspective of Employers" has pretentions to look into supported employment from the employers' point of view. They are not active initiators of the service, but they are important participants for its successful realization. The theoretical part of the thesis tries to describe the basic problems. It covers the service of supported employment from historical development to its importance. It focuses on special characteristics of disabilities and their social impact on human beings. The closing part is dedicated to working opportunities for people with disabilities in the circumstances of current legislative and economic situation. The practical part is written in the form of a qualitative research. The method of questioning and semi-structured interviews were used for the purposes of the research. Eight people were chosen intentionally for the survey. The data gained from the interviews were analysed with the method of open coding. The main aim of the thesis was to map out empoyers' experience with the service of supported employment. Motivation of employers to put this service into practice was the next part of the research. The question was: "What reasons for realization of supported employment do predominate by employers?" The research showed the most frequent facts, which predestine the integration possibility of disabled people in open labour market fundamentally. After the interviews and answering the questions of the research, it was possible to describe the employers' experience with the supported employment service and also their main incentives for its realization. It was found out that employers' experience with the supported employment service is quite limited. Employers often get to know it through the agency for supported employment, which is not only the initiator of cooperation, but it also plays an important role when a disabled person is being employed. An important point of successful employment is often how the emploeyer is satisfied with the agency. The employment of disabled people often brings certain risks connected with the limits of disabilities. Employers, who enable disabled people to work, are aware of that. The impulse for employment can vary from financial advantages, company philantrophy to personal solidarity of the employer. Social responsibility of the company is becoming a trend, that many employers start to know. But it can be presumed to influence the employment of more people with disabilities and at the same time the looking up the supported employment service by the employers. This bachelor's thesis can be contributive to understanding the importance of employment for disabled people's living. It brings information about the employers' experience with the realization of supported employment and motivation to the realization. It can also help to uncover integration obstacles of people with disabilities in open labour market.
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Influence of pasture management and fertilization on forage yield
Panský, Jan ; Hakl, Josef (advisor)
Pastures and meadows are often looked over because of they are minor yields against arable land. Because of it it is common to not care so much about them. The purpose of this research is to compare several ways of care about this pastures (number of grazing animals, manuring) concurrently grazing and find out if it is economically expedient to invest into theyre acreage.
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