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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Aspects of the virtualization of higher education and its comparison in the CZ and US
Dlauhá, Dominika ; Šedivá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Pour, Jan (referee)
The topic of this thesis is the evolution of online higher education in the CZ and US, from its beginnings to its current state. Emphasis is placed on describing MOOCs and virtualization in education, ranging from technological, pedagogical and didactic aspects to legislature and finance. A survey was conducted to determine the interest in online courses at the University of Economics, Prague and experience with online learning, resulting in an outline of the future development in this area.
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Expected development of Business Intelligence applications in the coming years
Aschmann, Jakub ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Fortinová, Jana (referee)
This thesis focuses on the development of Business Intelligence applications. The main area is the potential development in the coming years, history of business intelligence and individual components. To acquire the necessary knowledge, I studied educational materials and electronic publications. In Chapter 3 I focus on the definition of BI, in the following chapter I analyse individual components and the last chapter is dedicated to the development in the future. This thesis will provide comprehensive knowledge and trends in business intelligence to readers who are interested in this area and are looking for complex information.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Marketing strategy adaptation of Chipotle in Czech markets
Hofmannová, Veronika ; Král, Petr (advisor) ; Janecký, Vlastimil (referee)
This Diploma thesis deals with chain of fast food restaurants named Chipotle, which is predominantly known in the United States of America, and its potential entry into the Czech market. The thesis analyzes the marketing strategy of the company and applies its adaptation for the Czech market. The competitive advantage of the company is using local organic raw ingredients of high quality; therefore, the thesis examines the Czech people´s interest in Mexican cuisine as well as issues of sustainable development. The aim of the thesis is to analyze the marketing strategy of the chain of restaurants with Mexican fast food and subsequently to apply the adaptation of the marketing mix to the conditions at the Czech market.
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Relationship between electronic music and film
Švarcová, Johana ; BENDOVÁ, Helena (advisor) ; MAREK, Petr (referee)
In this work the mutual relationship between film and electronic music with particular focus on early sci-fi movies is discussed. This work is coming out from a phenomenal relationship between music and sound effects not often found outside of this genre. This topic is the rich source of an interdisciplinary overlaps and the cultural contexts, however not so much interest has been put yet to this field neither from Film or history of Electronic Music.
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San Minn (or) An Artist who prefer creating and paintings than his life
Zeya, Pyin Nyar ; JANEČEK, Vít (advisor) ; VOJTĚCHOVSKÝ, Miloš (referee)
No one can control a painter artist’s freely thoughts and ideas and although his paintings were under the high pressure and banned by force, the artistic value of his materials never go down. So that I am writing this paper.
He, San Minn has broken out the mainstream of Burmese painting field, he never made business paintings as well. He keeps his belief on the art of paints and he is always finding for the new way to make his paintings. His materials are very different from other Burmese painter artists’ materials. His style is unique in Burmese paintings. So I can get a chance to study of his style, ideas, ways of thinking and his determination on the art works.
My paper can show a painter artist’s life who grew up under the military rule for 50 years and the situation and history of Burmese painting field. Then not only people who are studying the painting subject, but also other people can know about the subject of Burmese painting and field of artists. I dare say that my paper must be colorful and fruitful.
As a painter artist, it seems that he wants his audience to feel his materials but he rare to show his real life behind the pictures. For me, I can get a chance to know about his real life for my thesis paper.
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Thesis Statement
My thesis can be useful for everybody who is interested in Burmese contemporary art field.
This is the biggest chance to read about one of the most famous, important and significant artists and art movements of Burma. His paintings are reflecting his journey through over 40 years of censorship, but he was not afraid to tackle political and social issues.
Many of San Minn's art works are based on autobiographical, making sharp social commentary on the popular culture, social values and scenario circumstances where he has lived in.
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Common features of movies integrating the theater phenomenon into their narrative and stylistic structure
Merková, Hana ; JAŘAB, David (advisor) ; Havas, David (referee)
The subject of this bachelor thesis is the common features of foreign and czech movies integrating theater phenomenon into their narrative and stylistic structure. For better explanation, firstly, the forms, which are not included in the area of interest are described- the audiovisual record of theater performance, film adaptation of dramatic play, or insertion of theater performance into the movie content. In following chapters, three different movie examples working with theater in their structure are being described and analysed. Then, thesis is trying to find the reasoning for the usage of two different mediums and their mutual comunication as a principle of autorship. Finally, thesis is trying to summarize common thematic and formal characteristics of chosen movies.
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Global Economy Outlook - December 2016
Česká národní banka
Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on a major phenomenon of the day: the migration of people into Europe, and Germany in particular. In this context, we present an analysis of the effect of the increased number of refugees on the German labour market. We show, among other things, that the incoming migrants will be far from enough to cover the demand for labour in Germany and also that they will compete more with workers arriving in search of jobs in Germany from Central and Eastern European countries than with German citizens.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Global Economy Outlook - November 2016
Česká národní banka
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on the relationship between the Brent crude oil price and the US dollar exchange rate over the last ten years. The results show that the inverse relationship between the Brent price and the nominal effective exchange rate of the dollar still applies, helping dampen fluctuations in the dollar price of oil in “non-dollar” economies.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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