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Cross-border lending contagion in multinational banks
Derviz, Alexis ; Podpiera, Jiří
This paper studies the interdependence of lending decisions in different country branches of a multinational bank. This is done both theoretically and empirically. First, it formulates a model of a bank that delegates the management of its foreign unit to a local manager with non-transferable skills. Second, it constructs a large sample of multinational banks and their ranches/subsidiaries and look for the presence of lending contagion by panel regression methods.
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Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries
Geršl, Adam ; Seidler, Jakub
Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This paper examines the issue of how to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital buffer”, a macroprudential tool proposed in the new regulatory framework of Basel III by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.
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Beyond Balassa - Samuelson: real appreciation in tradables in transtion countries
Cincibuch, Martin ; Podpiera, Jiří
Using the simple arbitrage model, writers of this work decompose real appreciation in tradables in three Central European countries between the pricing-to-market component (disparity) and the local relative price component (substitution ratio). Appreciation is only partially explained by local relative prices. The rest is absorbed by disparity, depending on the size of the no-arbitrage band. The observed disparity fluctuates in a wider band for differentiated products than for a commodity like goods.
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EU enlargement and endogeneity of some OCA criteria: evidence from the CEECs
Babetskii, Ian
There are two opposite points of view on the link between economic integration and business cycle synchronization - "The European Commission View" and "The Krugman View". According to the European Commission, closer integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks and to more synchronized business cycles between countries. On the other hand, for Krugman closer integration implies higher specialization and, thus, higher risks of idiosyncratic shocks. Drawing on the evidence from a group of transition countries which have experienced a notable increase in trade openness and economic integration with the European Union during the past decade, this paper tries to determine whose argument is supported by the data.
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