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Informal Economy: A micro-level analysis
Vu Duc, Cuong ; Levely, Ian Vandemark (advisor) ; Cingl, Lubomír (referee)
This paper analyzes association of informal economy with demographic charac- teristics. The first part introduces the definition and composition of the informal economy and sets the theoretical background. It presents its consequences and causes from different points of view. In the second part, we isolate characteris- tics that predict the propensity to work in the informal economy using the probit model. The work finds that the direction of individual effects matches with find- ings in Latin America reported by Perry et al. (2007). Keywords Informal economy, Shadow economy, South Africa, econometrics
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Czech educational system in the international context
Kučera, Milan ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Břízová, Pavla (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the impact of chosen variables on results from PISA. The thesis describes the short existence of PISA, summarizes the results from PISA with aiming on aggregatable variables and also deals with critique of PISA. The thesis provides the insertion of the czech system of compulsory education in the international context of results and findings of PISA. Econometrics analysis based on panel data of 44 countries participating in PISA from years 2006, 2009 a 2012 were confirmed international autocorrelation in results of PISA, significantly positive impact of economic, social and cultural background and negative impact of the inequality in the distribution of wealth in society. For this purpose was used spatial autoregressive model using maximum likelihood estimation method. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Econometric models for Czech insurance market
Vichr, Jaroslav ; Cipra, Tomáš (advisor) ; Pešta, Michal (referee)
Relationships between insurance variables representing the cash flows of the Czech insurance market can be effectively modeled using a dynamic system of linear simultaneous equations. The source of the underlying data to build such a model can be publicly available annual reports of the Czech Insurance Association. The resulting model can find its use mainly to predict the future development of financial flows based on historical observations and analysis of possible scenarios. It is this analysis of potential projections and their consequences which provides insight into how e.g. a future decrease of new insurance policies would affect the expected amount of claims costs and the volume of written premiums.
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Empirical Analysis of Prague Flat Market
Sklenářová, Tereza ; Křehlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Vozková, Karolína (referee)
The purpose of this work is to model the prices of real estate, concretely of Prague flats, which belong to the most important economic indicators. In the theoretical part, the main housing market participants are defined, special features of housing markets are described and most frequently used valuation methods are discussed. Most attention is focused on so called hedonic pricing model, which is applied as a base for the pricing equation in the econometric part. This is carried on various subsets of public available data regarding the characteristics of Prague flats, using ordinary least squares as well as weighted least squares. Several hypotheses about the relationship between the price and the explanatory variables are tested before creating the final model. The results are commented and compared with literature concerned with the same topic in other locations.
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Influence of sports on smoking and consumption of alcohol
Michlian, Štefan ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Hrbek, Pavel (referee)
This paper focuses on the meaning of sport for present people. All motivations which lead them to practise sport are stated. We consider the trend of decreasing volume of physical activity in population especially in developed countries and the total social costs because of this trend. We analyse the investments opportunities of health system in promoting physical activity and how much these methods are cost-effective. Furthemore the meaning of sport as prevention before socially undesirable phenomena is examined, particularly smoking of cigarettes and consumption of alcohol We present the previous studies which were done in this topic. The methodology of survey, questionnaire survey in theory and in practice is described. In the last chapter gained data are analysed with OLS method, Tobit model, probit model and interval regression. Pros and cons of these models and results are commented.
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Comparative analysis of factors influencing children's smoking
Tesař, Tomáš ; Pertold, Filip (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Smoking of children definitely is a huge social problem, which many governments around the world try to solve. Some of them are successful, other less. This paper focuses on the USA with the very good situation and, on the other hand, on the Czech Republic, where the situation is not so satisfactory. There are many factors that influence if a child smokes or not. And the main aim of this paper is to find the important factors in the both countries. Other aim is to compare significance of the factors' influence in the USA with the ones in the Czech Republic. Statistical description of datasets from NYTS survey in the USA in 2009 and from GYTS surveys in the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2007 show that there are less than 10% of child smokers in the age of 14 in the USA and the situation in the Czech Republic is getting better, although the amount of children who smoke is still three times higher. The influences of the factors are estimated by LPM methods, probit and logit models. American children are more affected by school class explaining danger and by other people who smoke in their presence, while the Czech children are mostly influenced by smokers among their closest friends and their parents.
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Forecasting Mortgages: Internet Search Data as a Proxy for Mortgage Credit Demand
Saxa, Branislav
This paper examines the usefulness of Google Trends data for forecasting mortgage lending in the Czech Republic. While the official monthly statistics on mortgage lending come with a publication lag of one month, the data on how often people search for mortgage-related terms on the internet are available without any lag on a weekly basis. Growth in searches for mortgages and growth in mortgages actually provided are strongly correlated. The lag between these two growth rates is two months. Evaluation of out-of-sample forecasts shows that internet search data improve mortgage lending predictions significantly. In addition to forecasting performance evaluation, an experimental indicator of restrictively tight mortgage credit standards and conditions is proposed. Nowadays many countries run bank lending surveys to monitor the tightness of bank lending standards and conditions. The proposed indicator represents a complementary tool to such a survey.
Fulltext:  PDF
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Econometric Analysis of Monetary and Fiscally Policy of the Czech Republic with Impacts to Business Area
Řičař, Michal ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Kislingerová, Eva (referee)
Monetary and fiscally policy together form the main pillar of state policy, which allows responsible institutions to stimulate or damp the development of national economy. Crucial role of these operations should be research of impacts on the sectors of industry, the business entities, respectively. We can expect that stimulation, e.g. in the form of increased government spending or lower interest rate of the central bank, will have different responses across a range of branches. If mathematical model of alternative historical development of the economy is composed with simulations for selected industries, we can analyze how each branch is affected. If significant differences in response of macroeconomic stimulations are found, it is necessary to proceed to an analytical examination of the causal factors that could stand in the background probably. It appears appropriate to apply financial analysis and on its basis it is possible to evaluate the structure of assets, financing, attainment of profits and other factors, whose characteristics is a strong explanatory power of the composition and function of the analyzed branch in the economy as a whole.
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