|
|
Dependency between Deflation and Recession in Japan over the Past Two Decades
Vopat, Daniel ; Ryska, Pavel (advisor) ; Franče, Václav (referee)
Aim of this bachelor's thesis is to find out if and in what manner has been the real GDP growth influenced by change of price level in Japan during last twenty years. This period is in Japan characteristic by economic stagnation often accompanied by deflation. Many economists and politicians presume that deflation keeps Japanese economy from growing again and they consider deflation to be an undesirable element that needs to be prevented. We use methods of econometric analysis to achieve our goal. To be more specific we use ordinary least squares estimation on quarterly data. The model is estimated in two ways to prevent possible influence of world economic crisis in 2008 and 2009. First model takes into account all collected data and second model drops out data from world economic crisis period. According to the first mentioned model analysis, the fourth lag of price level is negatively correlated with real GDP growth on 5 % significance level. To put it in another way, deflation was followed by acceleration of quarterly real GDP growth. This correlation was insignificant in the second model. Our research indicates that there is no reason to consider deflation being the cause of long lasting economic stagnation. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
|
|
|
Deflation and Its Implications for Macroeconomic Stability in Europe
Gorobetchi, Marina ; Ryska, Pavel (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
The subject of this thesis is the relationship that exists between deflation and the macroeconomic stability of the economy. Much literature has been published on this topic, but there is still a dearth of quantitative research based on strong empirical work. In the present work I have used a set of large panel data composed of 18 countries over 34 years in order to analyze the relationship between changes in inflation and output growth in a more complete and rigorous fashion. I use 3 different econometric models, namely fixed effects, random effects and the generalized method of moments. I chose these models in order to more appropriately examine the contemporaneous and lagged correlation between prices and output of countries. I also introduced foreign direct investment as a control variable to avoid the presence of potential bias. The empirical work presented in this paper leads to several findings. First, there is an insignificant relationship between a country's GDP growth and its deflation rate. Second, the relation between inflation and GDP growth is significant, and this relation becomes even positive when the econometric model is conducted on the data excluding outliers. Third, FDI positively contributes to and is partly responsible for the level of economic growth of the countries...
|
|
|
Future of Inflation Targeting in the Russian Federation
Navrátilová, Alice ; Fungáčová, Zuzana (advisor) ; Raková, Marie (referee)
Hereby presented Master Thesis deals with an analysis of preparedness of the Russian monetary policy for adoption of inflation-targeting regime. We define the impact of different factors on the level of inflation and consequently their importance in the process of predicting inflation in the period from January 2006 to September 2012 in the Russian Federation. The selection of the factors is based on theory and on the examination of the Russian monetary policy environment, taking into account the credibility, transparency and accountability of the monetary institutions and the financial sector and real economy specifications. The analysis of interconnections among the factors is based on a vector autoregressive regression model VAR(4) as well as on Granger causality test and impulse-response analysis. Our results indicate that the major role in inflation formation among the chosen variables, the exchange rate prevailed in the observed period and the interest rate gained in importance to certain extent. Thus the Russian Central Bank has proceeded to prepare the monetary policy rule for the adoption of inflation-targeting regime. Nevertheless, building more sound monetary and financial institutions, successful implementation of flexible exchange rate and abandoning exchange rate targeting, as...
|
|
|
Deflation and monetary policy
Vošková, Martina ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Kaimova, Nadira (referee)
The thesis aims to explain different theoretical approaches to definition of deflation, categorize deflation, define positive and negative connotations typical for each economical school, define the role of monetary policy in relation to price stability and monetary instruments with an emphasis on unconventional. The last part applies theoretical knowledge on Swiss situation, describes the interventions between years 2009 and 2016 and presents their initially predicted and subsequently real, graphically illustrated impact on economy. The theoretical part of diploma concludes that mainstream economy perception is the most suitable for definition of deflation, therefore perceive it as a negative phenomenon and calls for elimination. Each step of SNB monetary policy was controversial. The author opens the question of the necessity of intervention from 2009, explains the reasons of SNB steps from 2011 and exit strategy from 2015. However, the author do not forget on negative connotations. In the final part, thesis outlines the most discussed topics raised by Swiss interventions and opens the topic of negative rates as unconventional monetary instrument.
|
|
|
Terms of trade: impact on the czech international trade and economic growth in 2005 - 2015
Dulovec, Adam ; Zamrazilová, Eva (advisor) ; Šimíček, Petr (referee)
The thesis is focused on the changes in the terms of trade in Czech international trade in the term of from 2005 to 2015, as the period after the Czech Republic joined the European Union. The terms of trade are an important indicator of the benefits and loses of international trade. The main aim is to analyze the changes of terms of trade, the causes of their changes, and the impact on the real economy. The direction of the overall terms of trade index was highly unsettled, and did not actually generated additional gains in the economy not over the reporting period. The overall terms of trades were most influenced by the price development of two groups of the Standard International Trade Classification, Crude materials and lubricants, and machinery and transport equipment. The prices of Crude materials and lubricants are determined mainly by changes in the oil prices. These were very volatile in the reporting period, the especially the collapse of the prices in both 2009 and 2014-2015, had a significant impact on the import prices of the Czech economy. The thesis also analyzes the impact of exchange rate on the international trade prices, in the period since November 2013, i.e. after the Czech National Bank has committed to maintain the rate of Czech koruna against the Euro above the level of 27 CZK/EUR, which helped to protect the economy from deflations and enhance the economic growth. The effect of the weak crown, that favored the Czech exporters, however a faded over time.
|
|
|
Were CNB's foreign-exchange interventions from November 2013 necessary?
Volf, Matěj ; Vostrovská, Zdenka (advisor) ; Zamrazilová, Eva (referee)
This thesis deals with CNB foreign-exchange intervention from November 2013 in context of assumptions and impacts on the Czech economy. The theoretical part presents important monetary policy aspects, from conventional and unconventional tools to inflation targeting and deflation, to understand theoretical framework of analysis. Analytic part takes a look on Czech economy condition before interventions, especially inflation. Intervention impacts and exit strategies are examined further. Based on the analyzed data this thesis concludes that foreign-exchange interventions by Czech National Bank were not necessary and inevitable action.
|
|
|
Deflace - skutečný problém k řešení nebo nevyhnutelný důsledek globalizace?
Mudra, Martin ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Villaverde, José (referee)
The aim of this paper is to examine the striking inverse co-movement of decreasing inflation rates and increasing degree of globalization in developed economies during the current wave of globalization beginning in the 1980s. Our analysis stands on theoretical identification of channels through which globalization affects inflation in developed economies and the role of monetary policy in the process. Econometric estimation of the impact of advancing globalization on the rate of inflation carried out on a sample of high-income OECD countries over the years 1980 - 2013 supports our hypothesis that advancing globalization has a significant negative impact on the rate of inflation in advanced economies.
|
|
|
Intra-Aortic Balloon Counterpulsation
Žbánková, Alena ; Tannenberg,, Milan (referee) ; Sekora, Jiří (advisor)
The thesis is concerned with intraaortic balloon counterpulsation, which serves as a supporting method for the operation of failing heart. In the teoretical part is described principle of this method, its effects and the basic indications and contraindications of using. In the practical part of this work is proposed method for detecting triggering points realized in graphical program LabVIEW. The program outputs are detected ends of T wave for balloon inflation and R wave for its deflation.
|
|
|
Currency interventions: comparison of czech and suisse central bank.
Kohout, Eduard ; Vejmělek, Jan (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis aims at currency interventions executed by Czech and Suisse central bank and their following comparison. Currency interventions became lately monetary instrument that both central banks adopted. Effect of intervention on real economic situation in both countries will be content of this thesis. Because of the scale off the interventions, this issue is still current and it is still publicly debated. First part of this thesis introduces systems of exchange rate arrangements and describes the role of central bank. Second part of this thesis deals with currency interventions in Czech Republic and focuses on intervention impacts on real economics. Third part is devoted to Suisse currency intervention.
|
|
| |
guest ::
