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What the Data Say about the Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic?
Baxa, Jaromír
In this paper, we provide the estimates of the fiscal multiplier in the Czech economy, based on the methodology of the fiscal VAR. The basic idea, adding fiscal variables into the macroeconomic VAR model, follows Blanchard and Perotti (2002). For estimation of our model, we utilize the dataset with quarterly data on a sample from the first quarter of 1998 to the second quarter of 2009. Our main results are as follows. Firstly, government expenditures have a positive and significant impact on the GDP. By contrast, a response of GDP on a shock to government revenues is slightly negative and in most specifications not significant. Secondly, these results are robust to various sensitivity checks. Consequently, the restoration of sustainable fiscal policy should focus rather on the revenues side than in the government expenditures, since a significant cut in government spending would probably have slowed down economic growth.
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Modelování vkusu na finančních trzích
Vácha, Lukáš ; Vošvrda, Miloslav
Uvažuje se model heterogenních agentů s formulováním stochastických předpovědí. Fundamentalisté spoléhají na svůj model založený na fundamentální informaci pro předpověď budoucího cenového vývoje. Charchisté určují, zda současné podmínky obsahují fundamentální informaci a spoléhají na formy minulých predikcí. Tento paper ukazuje vliv změny sentimentu na strukturu ve finančních trzích. Tento jev je simulován pomocí změn struktury trendu předpovědi.
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Heterogeneous agent model with memory and asset price behaviour
Vošvrda, Miloslav ; Vácha, Lukáš
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis provides a theoretical basis on which technical trading rules are rejected as a viable trading strategy. Technical trading rules, providing a signal of when to buy or sell asset based on such price patterns to the user, should not be useful for generating excess returns. Technical traders and chartists tend to put little faith in strict efficient markets.
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