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Income tax evasion: tax elasticity, welfare, and revenue
Gillman, Max
This paper provides a general equilibrium model of income tax evasion. As functions of the share of income reported, the paper contributes an analytic derivation of the tax elasticity of taxable income, the welfare cost of the tax, and government revenue as a percent of output. It shows how an increase in the tax rate causes the tax elasticity and welfare cost to increase in magnitude by more than with zero evasion. Keeping constant the ratio of income tax revenue to output, as shown to be consistent with certain US evidence, a rising productivity of the goods sector induces less evasion and thereby allows tax rate reduction. The paper derives conditions for a stable share of income tax revenue in output with dependence upon the tax elasticity of reporting income. Examples are provided with less and more productive economies in terms of the tax elasticity of reported income, the welfare cost of taxation and the tax revenue as a percent of output, with sensitivity analysis with respect to leisure preference and goods productivity. Discussion focuses on how the tax evasion analysis may help explain such Öscal tax policy as the postwar US income tax rate reductions with discussion of tax acts and government Öscal multipliers. Fiscal policy with tax evasion included shows how tax rate reduction induces less tax evasion, a lower welfare cost of taxation, and makes for a stable income tax share of output.
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Granger predictability of oil prices after the great recession
Benk, S. ; Gillman, Max
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970ís oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since ináation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices, using one adjustment to monetary aggregates. This adjustment is the subtraction from the monetary aggregates of the 2008-2009 Federal Reserve borrowing of reserves from other Central Banks (Swaps), made after US reserves turned negative. This adjustment is key in that Granger predictability from standard monetary aggregates is found only with the Swaps subtracted.
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A human capital theory of structural transformation
Gillman, Max
The paper presents a human capital based theory of the sectoral transformation along the balanced growth path equilibrium. Allowing a small upward trend in the productivity of the human capital sector, combined with differential human capital intensity and constant productivity across sectors, output gradually shifts over time from relatively less human capital intensive sectors towards more human capital intensive sectors. Sectors intensive in the factor that is becoming relatively more plentiful find their relative prices falling, their “effective productivities” rising at differential rates inversely to their relative price decline, and their relative outputs expanding. Adding more sectors of greater human capital intensity causes labor time to decrease across existing sectors, and by relatively more in the least human capital sectors.
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