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Surface water temperature modelling to estimate Czech fishery productivity under climate change
Svobodová, Eva ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Kopp, R. ; Mareš, J. ; Spurný, P. ; Pechar, L. ; Beděrková, I. ; Dubrovský, M. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Freshwater fish production is significantly correlated with water temperature, which is expected to increase under climate change and affect fish growth, productivity, and survival. This study deals with estimating the change in water temperature in productive ponds and its impact on fishery in the Czech Republic. The target fish species were common carp (Cyprinus carpio), maraena whitefish (Coregonus maraena), northern whitefish (Coregonus peled), and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). It was hypothesized that there would be an increasing risk of high water temperature stress for fish. Water temperature calculations based on 3-day means of air temperature were tested in several ponds in three major fish production areas. The verified model was applied to the climate change conditions determined by standardized scenarios derived from the five global circulation models MPEH5, CSMK3, IPCM4, GFCM21, and HADGEM. The results for changed climate indicated limitations for Czech fish farming in terms of prolonged periods with fish temperature stress as well as the increased number of stress periods and increased number of days within these periods. It is very likely that Czech fishery will have to change the fish species farmed in particular productive areas. In particular, higher altitudes are likely to become less suitable for the Salmonidae.
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