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Essays in Public Policies and Immigration Control
Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Jeong, Byeongju (vedoucí práce) ; Imrohoroglu, Selahatin (oponent) ; Razin, Assaf (oponent)
Shrnutí Tato práce je teoretickou studií některých aspektů ukazující spojitost mezi imigrací a sociálním zabezpečením. Práce se skládá ze dvou částí. První část (Part I) má dvě kapitoly a obě pojednávají o otevřené ekonomice. Třetí kapitola tvoří druhou část (Part II) studie, tato část se zabývá uzavřenou ekonomikou. První kapitola první části, nazvaná "Immigration Control and Intergenerational Conflict" ("Imigrační kontrola a mezigenerační konflikt", CERGE-EI Working Paper 453) se soustřeďuje na mezigenerační konflikty vzniklé v hostitelské ekonomice, které jsou způsobeny selektivně-restriktivními imigračními podmínkami. Tato kapitola ukazuje, že generace, určující podmínky imigrace, dává přednost selektivní imigraci (např. povoluje imigraci pouze vysoce kvalifikovaným migrantům), ovšem plnění poměrně benevolentních podmínek způsobuje úbytek blahobytu budoucí generace obyvatelstva hostitelské země. A platí to i naopak, jelikož u méně kvalifikovaných imigrantů je nižší kvalifikace vyvážena vyšší plodností. Tudíž neselektivní politika imigrace, která nepřináší blahobyt generaci současné, zaručuje lepší životní podmínky generacím budoucím. Druhá kapitola první části, nazvaná "Can Social Security Survive a Non-Selective Immigration? " ('Je možné i při neselektivní imigraci zachovat sociální zabezpečení?"),...
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Modeling Uganda
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Bečičková, H. ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, T. ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vlček, J.
The report has three chapters. The chapter 1 summarizes main features of the Ugandan economy relevant for building the FPAS. The chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model and its properties captured by decompositions of variances of the model’s variables in terms of the model shocks and by its impulse-response functions. The chapter also describes Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting. The chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed both in the sample as well as by using an out-of-the-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling South Africa
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the South African economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in South Africa through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Russia
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Russian economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Russia through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Myanmar
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model which lies at heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Myanmar economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Myanmar through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Moldova
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model which lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Moldovan economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Moldova through the lens of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Kyrgyzstan
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 - Introduction is concluded with a short description of Kyrgyz economy and some of the stylized facts. The report continues with two chapters. Chapter 2 describes the structural model which lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Kyrgyz economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Kyrgyzstan through the lenses of the model. Chapter 3 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Kazakhstan
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Kazah economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Kazakhstan through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is as- sessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We con- clude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Georgia
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model which lies at heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Georgian economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Georgia through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Cambodia
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Bečičková, H. ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, T. ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vlček, J.
The report consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 presents the structural macroeconomic model, its changes compared to the June 2010 version, and its properties captured by impulse-response functions and by variance decompositions of the model’s variables in terms of the model’s shocks. What is important is the part on the model-consistent interpretation of the recent economic history of Cambodia. The section describing Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting concludes. Chapter 2 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed using both within-sample and out-of-sample comparisons with the random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison. The last chapter provides an overview of the considerable country database that has been compiled.
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