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Modelling Conditional Quantiles of CEE Stock Market Returns
Tóth, Daniel ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
Correctly specified models to forecast returns of indices are important for in- vestors to minimize risk on financial markets. This thesis focuses on conditional Value at Risk modeling, employing flexible quantile regression framework and hence avoiding the assumption on the return distribution. We apply semi- parametric linear quantile regression (LQR) models with realized variance and also models with positive and negative semivariance which allows for direct modelling of the quantiles. Four European stock price indices are taken into account: Czech PX, Hungarian BUX, German DAX and London FTSE 100. The objective is to investigate how the use of realized variance influence the VaR accuracy and the correlation between the Central & Eastern and Western European indices. The main contribution is application of the LQR models for modelling of conditional quantiles and comparison of the correlation between European indices with use of the realized measures. Our results show that linear quantile regression models on one-step-ahead forecast provide better fit and more accurate modelling than classical VaR model with assumption of nor- mally distributed returns. Therefore LQR models with realized variance can be used as accurate tool for investors. Moreover we show that diversification benefits are...
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Investment and employment in EU
Wurmová, Tereza ; Toth, Daniel (advisor) ; Zdeněk, Zdeněk (referee)
This thesis investigates the Foreign Direct Investments, their definition, impact on the host economy and their support in the form of investment incentives. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to the theoretical perspective on employment, labour market and the Europe 2020 program strategy. The second practical part of this thesis focuses on econometric analysis. The analysis examines the Czech Republic, Germany and the United Kingdom, and tests the validity of the hypotheses that are primarily focusing on the influence of Foreign Direct Investments on employment. Furthermore, the analytical part deals with other macroeconomic indicators, which can positively affect employment. Germany and the United Kingdom are chosen as inspirational countries as they occupy the top positions in the employment rate in the European Union.
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Monetary Policy of the Czech Republic
Turková, Kateřina ; Toth, Daniel (advisor) ; Zdeněk, Zdeněk (referee)
The thesis is focused on the tools of monetary policy which the central bank uses when she wants to achieve the inflation target. The outcome of this thesis is proposal optimize the tools of monetary policy. The Proposal is based on the analysis of the results of simultaneous econometric model. In this thesis is testing time series by November 2013. At this time the Czech National Bank concluded currency commitment. By this time the central bank is overseeing that the exchange rate is above 27 CZK / EUR. Another objective is evaluating the influence of interventions on the economic development of the country. In this thesis are used secondary data from external sources. In the theoretical part is described of monetary policy, monetary policy instruments and the main objectives of monetary policy. In the practical part is constructed an econometric model. Endogenous variables in the model are logarithms yields exchange rate CZK / EUR and inflation of monetary policy.
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Economic competitiveness of Germany
Novák, Ondřej ; Toth, Daniel (advisor) ; Zdeněk, Zdeněk (referee)
This diploma thesis focused on the issue of competitiveness in current globalized world. It is focused on national and regional competitiveness in one of the most developed countries in the world, which is the Federal Republic of Germany.
In the first part of this thesis are defined basic concepts of globalization, competitiveness in the corporate, regional and national levels, as well as possibilities for their evaluation.
In the next section is explored national economic competitiveness of Germany. Starting with economic characteristics of the Federal Republic of Germany, along with economic characteristics other selected countries, Norway and the Czech Republic. With which is Germany currently compared in the evaluation of competitiveness. Countries are compared in all of the 12 pillars of competitiveness evaluation, which is conducted by the World Economic Forum. Based on these results, are the relative and absolute changes in evaluation of the competitiveness of Germany between 2010-2011 and 2014-2015, further identified.
In the final part of this diploma thesis are presented characteristics of the 16 federal states of Germany. Subsequently, by solving the problem of multi-criteria decision-determined, are all of the federal states of Germany lined up by level of their competitiveness. The final output is the territorial division of the Federal Republic of Germany based on various levels of regional competitiveness.
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Competitiveness of the European Union
Seiler, Milan ; Toth, Daniel (advisor) ; Zdeněk, Zdeněk (referee)
This thesis entitled Competitiveness of the European Union deals with the issue of competitiveness as one of the significant and dominant aspects that influence economic entities and political leadership of individual member states and the central institutions of the European Union. The aim of the work is in accordance with the assignment, which is an analysis of the factors of European Union's competitiveness against other major world economies and identify the strengths and weaknesses of the EU. The aim is also to assess the contribution of the policy of the EU institutions in improving of competitiveness.
The theoretical part of the thesis describes the issue of competitiveness and a conflict of opinion trends concerning the very concept of competitiveness and its measurement. The second part is dedicated to the selected economic factors affecting competitiveness.
In the practical part is used a regression analysis to identify the economic factors most acting on the EU economic growth. Follows the forecast of selected economic factors until 2020. The comparison of the competitiveness of the EU with the BRICS, USA and Japan is made by using obtained data. At the end of the practical part is summarize the influence of EU policies on competitiveness through the assessment of the Global Competitiveness Index.
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Economic impact of social development in the selected organization
Trnovská, Jiřina ; Toth, Daniel (advisor) ; Zdeněk, Zdeněk (referee)
The main theme of the thesis is the policy of the European Union with a focus on providing support to member countries. The primary goal is an evaluation of drawing the allocated grant with using an example of realization of a particular project and specifications of measures for a more effective budget creation. The proposal of the measures will reflect the experiences from the realization of the project. The secondary goal is an elaborated analysis of key activities and comparison of the real amount of drawn financial resources under the budget items of individual activities with a budget proposal created before the start of realization.
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Economic impacts of active employment politics
Nováková, Irena ; Toth, Daniel (advisor) ; Zdeněk, Zdeněk (referee)
One of the priorities not only of active employment politics of Czech Republic is employing people with a disability. State social system provides a complex support for these people in their difficult situation. If this system is supposed to cover their basic problem, it has to find the best ways to help disabled people to become independent. The necessary presumption is employing a particular person. Protected labor market was established within Czech Republic's social system, which should not be subjected to strong competitive forces or competitive forces within businesses, but is completely dependent on government subsidies. The process of disabled people's return to the free labor market is however a concept that requires a cooperation from the government, disabled people themselves and also the employers. The thesis deals with the development of legislation in Czech Republic related to employing disabled people. It rates the efficiency of already established measures and a way of creating a motivation for employers, who employ or are obligated to employ people with disabilities.
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Economic impacts of employment in the Karlovy Vary Region
Pulíková, Eva ; Toth, Daniel (advisor) ; Helena, Helena (referee)
This Thesis Economic Impacts of employment in the Karlovy Vary region is engaged in the development and current state of unemployment in the Karlovy Vary region in economic terms. The first theoretical part includes basic concepts of unemployment and employment policy. The second part describe only the unemployment rate but using the obtained empirical economic, demographic and other data and processing is looking for causes, context and consequences. Evaluates the status of the region in the Czech Republic, looking for potential opportunities the region, taking into account its historical development and current situation of their businesses with the requirements, structure and quality of secondary and tertiary education. While continually portrays long-term economic impacts of inadequate and haphazard approach republican institutions, municipalities and other entities for the practical development of employment in the Karlovy Vary region.
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Economical Impact of Regional Planning in the selected Region
Mudrová, Marcela ; Toth, Daniel (advisor) ; Helena, Helena (referee)
The thesis aims to draft procedures for regional development. The goal is going to define standardized processes, which aim to take advantage of the activities of foreign investors in the Central Bohemia Region, these investment activities positively getting on the development of employment rate. The methodology includes the application of regression analysis in which is the explanatory variables, the volume of foreign direct investment (independent variable) and the dependent variable is the emplyment people who have permanent home in the Central Bohemia Region. To maintain the investment activity is necessary to create the local authorities suitable conditions for investors through guaranteed prices of commercial area. The assumption is that investor interest will be remain only in the event, that they gonna to be offered a guaranteed price of commercial area. The task for the public administration is in the interest of investors and the public interest. The result of regression analysis is, used to determine the optimal scope of commercial area offer. Therefore, to design solutions also falls adjustment and correction of territorial development in the Central Bohemia Region.
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Economical Impact of Employment in the selected Company
Laštovička, Štěpán ; Toth, Daniel (advisor) ; Helena, Helena (referee)
The thesis is focused on the development of employment and human capital in selected business services. Aim of the study includes practical solutions and measures, which are summarized in the project SteLa15. It is a development project designed to increase the qualitative level of human capital in the organization. Goals also falls into the draft project implementation and introduction into practice. He was elected a multi-stage methodology which includes both the descriptive part and the analytical part, which uses the results of the regression analysis has. Statistical tools are supportive and the results are used to argue in favor of its own procedures. The result is a training and development project, which has short and medium term to increase the economic results of the organization and also increase competitiveness and overall business value.
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