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Financial Risk and Models of its Measurement: Altman's Z-score Revisited
Kruchynenko, Ihor ; Svoboda, Svatopluk (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
Master thesis touches upon the interesting spheres of risk classification, measurement and management of financial institutions. Modern banks have numerous credit risk measurement models at their disposal. However, agreement about performance of those models is not that unanimous and to some point the models are blamed for breaking out of 2007 financial crisis. In the theoretical part of the thesis we provide survey of risk measurement practices in banks. We investigate the main types of risk of banks in their day-to-day activities. Special focus is paid on the credit risk and on the models and techniques of its measurement; Practical part of thesis then contains construction and accuracy estimation of particular credit-risk-model (Altman Z-score). In it we construct and compute Altman Z-score for sample of firms from two chosen sectors in United Kingdom. Main goals of the work are a) testing accuracy of the model by comparing its outputs to real development, and b) econometric testing of the specification of the model itself.
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China's Equilibrium Exchange Rate
Hanousek, Milan ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Kruchynenko, Ihor (referee)
The object of this thesis is to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of the Chinese currency and to determine how much the actual exchange rate de- viates from the equilibrium value. Throughout the China's central planned period the currency was highly overvalued, but economic reforms have brought it closer to the equilibrium. At the present time, the common perception is that the currency is significantly undervalued. We employ the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER), which enables to measure overvaluation or undervaluation of the actual real effective exchange rate. The basic require- ments for the calculating the FEER are estimated trade equations, a potential output for China and its main foreign partners and sustainable capital flows. Trade equations are estimated by the Engle-Granger two step estimator and the Johansen methodology. The modified version of trade equations is esti- mated by ordinary least squares. The dataset used in this study is composed of annual observations over the period 1981 and 2010. 1
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Bank Liquidity Creation and Real Economy: VAR Analysis
Hálová, Klára ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kruchynenko, Ihor (referee)
In this thesis we examine the interactions of bank liquidity creation and real economy using vector autoregression model. We selected inflation, unemployment rate and interest rate as basic economic variables which theoretically could influence bank liquidity creation. We decided to examine the reverse relationship whether bank liquidity creation has a significant impact on real economy. We study these interactions using data from Czech Republic within ten-year period from 2000 to 2010. Our results suggest that macroeconomic fluctuations have a significant impact on bank liquidity creation. The results also support our reverse hypothesis that higher liquidity creation can improve macroeconomic conditions.
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Foreign and Domestic Currency Loans in Central Europe: An Empirical Analysis
Burešová, Nikola ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kruchynenko, Ihor (referee)
This thesis describes the history and present situation of dollarization process and analyzes the situation in three new EU member states. It describes the development of the official and unofficial dollarization of credits and deposits, and concludes the results of previous studies. Furthermore, it provides a detailed analysis of situation concerning borrowing denominated in foreign currencies in the Czech, Hungarian and Polish household sector, for the period of last eleven years. The empirical analysis investigates the determinants of foreign currency loans in a household sector. Using three different panel data regressions, we found that share of foreign currency denominated loans in examined countries are positively influenced by dollarization of deposits, banks' net foreign assets and loan to deposit ratio. Other tested variables, such as EU membership, interest rate differential or exchange rate volatility, changes their significance and impact according to the model or the method used. Their impact on a dependent variable is insignificant and not stable. JEL Classification E44, G21 Keywords Foreign currency borrowing, dollarization, household sector, Central Europe Author's e-mail Nikola.Buresova@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail Roman.Horvath@gmail.com Bibliographic Record Burešová, N (2013):...
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China's Equilibrium Exchange Rate
Hanousek, Milan ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Kruchynenko, Ihor (referee)
The object of this thesis is to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of the Chinese currency and to determine how much the actual exchange rate de- viates from the equilibrium value. Throughout the China's central planned period the currency was highly overvalued, but economic reforms have brought it closer to the equilibrium. At the present time, the common perception is that the currency is significantly undervalued. We employ the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER), which enables to measure overvaluation or undervaluation of the actual real effective exchange rate. The basic require- ments for the calculating the FEER are estimated trade equations, a potential output for China and its main foreign partners and sustainable capital flows. Trade equations are estimated by the Engle-Granger two step estimator and the Johansen methodology. The modified version of trade equations is esti- mated by ordinary least squares. The dataset used in this study is composed of annual observations over the period 1981 and 2010. 1
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Financial Risk and Models of its Measurement: Altman's Z-score Revisited
Kruchynenko, Ihor ; Svoboda, Svatopluk (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
Master thesis touches upon the interesting spheres of risk classification, measurement and management of financial institutions. Modern banks have numerous credit risk measurement models at their disposal. However, agreement about performance of those models is not that unanimous and to some point the models are blamed for breaking out of 2007 financial crisis. In the theoretical part of the thesis we provide survey of risk measurement practices in banks. We investigate the main types of risk of banks in their day-to-day activities. Special focus is paid on the credit risk and on the models and techniques of its measurement; Practical part of thesis then contains construction and accuracy estimation of particular credit-risk-model (Altman Z-score). In it we construct and compute Altman Z-score for sample of firms from two chosen sectors in United Kingdom. Main goals of the work are a) testing accuracy of the model by comparing its outputs to real development, and b) econometric testing of the specification of the model itself.
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