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CHAID and logistic regression
Novák, Jaroslav ; Čabla, Adam (advisor) ; Matějka, Martin (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to introduce logistic regression and method dedicated to construction of decision trees called CHAID, compare these two methods with regard to interpretation of their outputs. In order to accomplish the set goals application of these methods will be presented on real dataset. Statistical software will be used to obtain outputs. The outputs will be interpreted and conclusions on their bases will be presented. This thesis will also introduce possibilities of interpretation of these outputs and pros and cons that are connected with them.
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Survival Analysis in R
Pásztor, Bálint ; Malá, Ivana (advisor) ; Čabla, Adam (referee)
Survival analysis is a statistical discipline that analyzes the time to occurrence of certain events. The aim of this thesis is to describe the possibilities of survival analysis in the environment of statistical software R. Theoretical knowledge is applied to real data, parametric and nonparametric estimates of survival functions are evaluated by different methods and compared with each other. In the section focusing on nonparametric models Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen functions are described. Among the parametric estimates there were included well-known probability distributions, survival functions and risk functions derived from these distributions are presented and there is discussed their usefulness in survival analysis. Another aim is to show the possibility of deriving transition probabilities from estimates and building a Markov chain model to capture the changes of studied cohort over time. The second part of the work contains a description of the applications of the theory of survival analysis. In this section there are shown possibilities of statistical modeling in the field of survival analysis using the software R. Outputs from R were used to create Markov model. There are presented possibilities of pharmacoeconomic models and description of the basic concepts of HTA. Cost-effectiveness calculations using ICER were conducted in accordance with the methodology of SUKL. It was shown that the statistical modelling of survival plays an important role in the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of medicines.
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Comparing of length of employment before and during the financial crisis
Vágner, Hubert ; Čabla, Adam (advisor) ; Malá, Ivana (referee)
In this bachelor thesis I introduce survival analysis and distribution of time-to-event. The analyzied subject is the resignation from work. It means that I find out and compare how long on average people had work before the financial recession of 2008-2009 and during the time period of the 2010-2011 recession. The data gathered is from the Labor Force Survey, which is produced by the Czech Statistical Office. I used interval censoring to gather the data for the average length of the working ratio. This means that we know that the observed event happened in a given interval, in this case the intervals are individual survays. First of all, it's necessary to estimate the survival function. We shall do this with the help of the nonparametrical Turnbull's estimate for data in interval censoring. Than we calculate individual averages. The empirical part will consist of individual comparisons of the survival function and the average lengths of the working ratio, first for the overall population, second for separate genders and finally for various education levels.
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CHAID - decision tree construction technique
Freyvald, Michal ; Vild, Jiří (advisor) ; Čabla, Adam (referee)
CHAID analysis (Chi-squared Automated Interaction Detection) is a construction technique of decision trees, which is especially suitable for categorical data and is based on Paerson's chi-square statistical test of independence of categorical fields. Important characteristics of decision trees are summarized and structure of CHAID analysis, particular phases of analysis construction, advantages, disadvantages and recommended settings for a high- quality analysis are described in this paper. On exemplary sample from customers segment we're observing usage of CHAID in practise and with the help of IBM SPSS PASW Statistics v18.0 software we're proving usefulness of CHAID analysis in target marketing.
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Analysis of development of spectator attendance at First football league matches since 1963
Hradilová, Lenka ; Čabla, Adam (advisor) ; Vild, Jiří (referee)
In modern society there are a lot of types of entertainment and ways to spend leisure time. Very popular type of entertainment is sport. The attractiveness of each sport is changing in time a lot. The aim of this work is to analyze the attractiveness of football, which is measured by the average number of viewers. At first,work will be focus on the evaluation of the average attendance at First football league matches since 1963. Then an average spectators attendance of three famous football clubs is analyzed in more detail. The last part is devoted to examining the dependence of the average number of viewers for each team on the success of the team measured by the number of points obtained in the relevant season.
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Statistical hypothesis testing using sports data
Černý, Jakub ; Malá, Ivana (advisor) ; Čabla, Adam (referee)
This bachelor thesis is based on empirical study of betting odds of six world-wide betting offices. Using statistical hypothesis testing it tests similarity among offices predictions of five best football leagues and whether the predictions correspond with final results of these games. It has been demonstrated that betting offices predict matches identically but predictions does not correspond with final results. In the second part of this paper, the betting offices are experimentally treated as bettors and their return on investment is monitored. From the comparison of returns and mean squared error of predictions, betting offices Bet365 and BetVictor can be considered as those with the best predictions. Analysis of Fortel servis betting diary has shown that using betting advisory service can lead to long-term profits. It is a proof that betting offices can be beaten over a long time which was also one of the objectives of this paper.
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An Analysis of Unemployment in Poland and the Czech Republic
Vavrečková, Klára ; Čabla, Adam (advisor) ; Malá, Ivana (referee)
The subject-matter of this bachelor thesis is an analysis of unemployment in the Czech Republic and Poland with a main focus on long-term unemployment which has a negative effect on an individual as well as on the state's economy. The major goal of this thesis is to compare the development and structure of unemployment in both countries from different perspectives by using appropriate statistical methods. The first part focuses on a clarification of terms such as unemployment. The second part of this paper compares the basic and common characteristics of the countries. The next part is devoted to the theory of the statistical methods which are use in the analytical part. Based on the data taken from Eurostat and the Czech Statistical Office in the year 1998--2013 is in the analytical part used the Analysis of Variance, analysis of trend and forecast of the long-term unemployment by using the exponential smoothing method. The bachelor thesis provides a compact insight into problems of unemployment in the Czech Republic and Poland.
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Comparison of unemployment in the Moravian-Silesian Region and in the capital city Prague in 2005-2009
Krýslová, Petra ; Löster, Tomáš (advisor) ; Čabla, Adam (referee)
Unemployment is one of the major economic problems of today. Bachelor thesis compares unemployment in the Moravian-Silesian Region and the city of Prague. These regions are chosen because they Moravian-Silesian Region has long been regarded as the region with the highest unemployment rates and Prague with the lowest unemployment rate in the Czech Republic. The aim of this work is to analyze the evolution of unemployment in both regions and individual districts Moravian-Silesian Region in the years 2005-2013 from several perspectives. The work is divided into two parts. The first, theoretical part deals with the characteristics of both the studied regions, concepts related to unemployment and time series. The second, practical part analyzes unemployment using appropriate statistical methods. The data is obtained from the public portal of the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs.
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How to lie with statistics
Štefan, Pavol ; Čabla, Adam (advisor) ; Langhamrová, Jana (referee)
This paper describes the misleading in statistical research and its incorrect presentation. It concentrates on presentation of statistical research, what is the most common source of misunderstanding of statistical results by public and by professionals. The basic factors, which influence the statistical research, is described within theoretical part of this paper. The particular examples, which demonstrates incorrect statistical approach and misleading presentation of statistical research, is presented within analytical part of this work.
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State of Millenium Development Goals programme
Dobrotka, Ondřej ; Čabla, Adam (advisor) ; Vild, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the status of compliance with the MDGs, which the United Nations committed itself to meet by 2015. These objectives concern the biggest problems associated with developing regions, which include poverty, public health, environmental protection and, ultimately, global economic cooperation. The first part outlines the history of the development program of the MDGs. In the second part are then defined the selected indicators that are linked to objectives and also is there described the methodology of their calculation. The actual evaluation of the objectives is based on these indicators and quantifying is made on the basis of official data sets published by the United Nations, the World Bank and other associated organizations.
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