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Rare Disasters and Asset Pricing Puzzles
Kotek, Martin ; Maršál, Aleš (advisor) ; Korbel, Václav (referee)
The impact of rare disasters on equity premium and term premium in a New Keynesian DSGE model is explored in the thesis. Andreasen's (2012) model with Epstein-Zin preferences, bonds and a rare disaster shock in total factor productivity process is extended by a variable capital stock and an equity-type asset. We find that the variable capital significantly changes behavior of the model, capital depreciation must be substantially increased to counter the effect of variable capital and stochastic mean of inflation increases. The model calibrated to the US economy and a high risk aversion generates 10-year term premium of 90 basis points, rare disasters increase the premium only by 3 basis points. The equity premium is 163 basis points and rare disasters increase it also only by 3 basis points. The model with a low coefficient of relative risk aversion of 5.5 generates negative risk premia. Rare disasters increase the risk premia by mere 4 basis points in comparison to a model with i.i.d. shocks. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Comparison of double auction bidding strategies for automated trading agents
Vach, Daniel ; Maršál, Aleš (advisor) ; Burda, Martin (referee)
Comparison of double auction bidding strategies for automated trading agents Bc. Daniel Vach Absctract In this work, ZIP, GDX, and AA automated bidding strategies are compared in symmetric agent-agent experiments with a variable composition of agent population. ZIPOJA, a novel strategy based on ZIP with Oja's rule extension for updating its optimal price, is introduced. Then it is showed that ZIPOJA underperforms in competition against other strategies and that it underperforms even against the original ZIP. Dominance of AA over GDX and ZIP is questioned and it is showed that it is not robust to composition changes of agent population and that the experimental setup strongly affects the results. GDX is a dominant strategy over AA in many experiments in this work in contrast to the previous literature. Some mixed strategy Nash equilibria are found and their basins of attraction are shown by dynamic analysis.
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Impacts of the Euro Adoption in the Czech Republic
Svačina, David ; Maršál, Aleš (advisor) ; Malovaná, Simona (referee)
DSGE models are as structural models capable of estimating what would have happened if some part of economy or shocks to it had been different. We consider three such differences in the recent Czech history: no financial shocks during the crisis in 2008-2009; eurozone membership during the crisis in 2008-2009; and no foreign exchange interventions of the Czech National Bank in November 2013. For this purpose, we employ a small open economy DSGE model with financial frictions and estimate it with Bayesian inference. Our results show that impact of financial shocks on GDP growth was negligible. Further, eurozone membership would have made crisis more severe; GDP growth in 2009Q1 would have been -6% instead of -3% and economy would have been in deflation for the five consecutive periods. Difference is explained by strong depreciation of exchange rate during crisis that would not have occurred with the fixed exchange rate. Lastly, the Czech National Banks's foreign exchange interventions increased GDP growth by as much as 0.8 percentage point and saved economy from deflation in all following quarters. They worked through depreciation of exchange rate and consequent improvement in trade balance and increase in price of imported goods. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Family House Market in Europe during the Recent Crisis
Béreš, Adam ; Vacek, Pavel (advisor) ; Maršál, Aleš (referee)
Univerzita Karlova v Praze Fakulta sociálních věd Institut ekonomických studií Název DP v jazyce práce Family House Market in Europe during the Recent Crisis Podnázev práce Překlad názvu DP v angličtině nebo češtině Trh rodinných domov v Európe počas súčasnej krízy. Typ práce diplomová práce Autor/ka: Adam Béreš Rok zpracování 2015 Vedoucí práce PhDr. Pavel Vacek Ph.D. Abstrakt anglicky This thesis analyzes family house market in seven European countries: the Czech Republic, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland and Slovakia, together with two cities: Bratislava and Prague. The main goal is to compare family house price determinants in transitional countries with developed ones and capture possible effects of the recent economic crisis. In the first part, panel data models are employed to determine price determinants and any housing bubbles. Real GDP growth rate as a proxy for households' income, together with housing loan interest rate proved to be significant price determinant for both groups. Housing market in transitional countries is influenced only by demand side factors like unemployment. Housing market in developed countries is led by demand and supply side factors represented by labor cost index. In the second part of the analysis, VAR model is employed, for each country separately, to detect...
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The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools at the Zero Lower Bound: A DSGE Approach
Malovaná, Simona ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Maršál, Aleš (referee)
The central bank is not able to further ease monetary conditions once it ex- hausts the space for managing short-term policy rate. Then it has to turn its attention to unconventional measures. The thesis provides a discussion about the suitability of different unconventional policy tools in the Czech situation while the foreign exchange (FX) interventions have proven to be the most appropriate choice. A New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model estimated for the Czech Republic is enhanced to model the FX interventions and to compare dif- ferent monetary policy rules at the zero lower bound (ZLB). The thesis provides three main findings. First, the volatility of the real and nominal macroeconomic variables is magnified in the response to the domestic demand shock, the for- eign financial shock and the foreign inflation shock. Second, the volatility of prices decreases significantly if the central bank adopts price-level or exchange rate targeting rule. Third, intervening to fix the nominal exchange rate on some particular target or to correct a misalignment of the real exchange rate from its fundamentals serves as a good stabilizer of prices while intervening to smooth the nominal exchange rate movements increases the overall macroeconomic volatility at the ZLB. 1
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Monetary policy regime through the lense of New Keynesian DSGE model : case of Mongolia
Sukhbaatar, Bilguun ; Maršál, Aleš (advisor) ; Rusnák, Marek (referee)
This paper identifies an optimal monetary policy rule using a calibrated small open economy DSGE model for Mongolian economy. The main result of this study is that domestic inflation-based Taylor rule is the best monetary policy regime for the Central bank of Mongolia (BoM) in terms of welfare loss. Therefore, the result of welfare analysis suggests that BoM should consider not only CPI inflation but also output gap in order to improve household welfare in economy. On the other hand currency board with fixed exchange rate regime could be very harmful to the Mongolian economy because it makes domestic economy more unstable in comparison to the other regimes. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect and Monetary Policy in Mongolia: Small Open Economy DSGE model
Buyandelger, Oyu-Erdene ; Maršál, Aleš (advisor) ; Zelený, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis analyzes the incomplete exchange rate pass-through effect on Mongolian economy and its implication on monetary policy under foreign and domestic shocks. The analysis is carried out in a small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model proposed by Monacelli (2005), where incomplete exchange rate pass-through is introduced via nominal rigidities on import prices. In order to accomplish the goal, we firstly derive the solutions of the model, calibrate the parameters, and finally simulate the impulse responses. Moreover, SVAR estimation is achieved to estimate the pass-through. Four main results are obtained. First, the exchange rate pass-through into import price and inflation is 0.69% and 0.49% respectively in short run, implying incomplete pass-through in Mongolia. Second, the exchange rate acts as a shock absorber for domestic productivity and foreign demand shock, but as a shock amplifier for domestic demand shock. Third, in case of incomplete pass-through the central bank of Mongolia is required to adjust the nominal interest rate more under the productivity shock, but less for the domestic and foreign demand shock. Finally, deviations from the law of one price contributes considerably to the variability of the output gap under the low pass-through. Therefore, considering incomplete pass-through in...
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Asset Prices in a DSGE Model with Financial Frictions
Kučera, Adam ; Maršál, Aleš (advisor) ; Zelený, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis examines the ability of DSGE models with financial elements to explain financial asset prices. A neoclassical macroeconomic model is used, in- cluding a financial constraint in the form of a restriction on external financing. Moreover, the strictness of the restriction is affected by an external financial shock. It is shown, that the combination of the financial constraint and the fi- nancial shock contributes to understanding of the macroeconomic fluctuations, asset price dynamics and their mutual impact. The calibration for the United States demonstrates that the financial shock is an important source of the as- set price volatility. Contrary, when calibrated to the Czech data, the financial shock generates only moderate asset price volatility, as a consequence of a posi- tive correlation with the productivity shock. To address the issue, the model is further extended by a sector of financial intermediaries and a preference shock related to the risk-aversion of economic subjects, and the extension is shown to improve the result.
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The Czech National Bank Communication and the Yield Curve
Karas, Pavel ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Maršál, Aleš (referee)
This thesis analyzes the effect of the Czech National Bank's (CNB) communica- tion on the interest rate volatility (PRJBOR reference rate). Starting with the literature survey about the central bank communication in the world, I focus on the literature that concerns the CNB. To model the CNB's communication, I use the GARCH(l,1), EGARCH(l,1) and TARCH(l,1) models. I have created a unique data set containing the dummy variables for the CNB communication. The results are as follows: (a) the CNB's communication tends to decrease the volatility, (b) timing of the communication has a key role as the comments closer to the meeting have bigger calming effect, and that (c) there is no clear effect concerning the comments of the Bank Board members in the media. JEL Classification Keywords E43, E44, E52, E58 Czech National Bank, monetary policy signaling, central bank communication, the term structure of interest rates, GARCH analysis Author's email karasp@email.cz Supervisors's email roman. horvath@gmail.com
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The Czech National Bank Communication:GARCH analysis of 3M PRIBOR rate and Czech 10Y government bonds
Karas, Pavel ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Maršál, Aleš (referee)
This thesis analyzes the effect of the Czech National Bank's (CNB) communication on the interest rate volatility (PRIBOR reference rate). Starting with the literature survey about the central bank communication in the world, I focus on the literature that concerns the CNB. To model the CNB's communication, I use the GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1) and TARCH(1,1) models. I have created a unique data set containing the dummy variables for the CNB communication. The results are as follows: (a) the CNB's communication tends to decrease the volatility, (b) timing of the communication has a key role as the comments closer to the meeting have bigger calming effect, and that (c) there is no clear effect concerning the comments of the Bank Board members in the media.
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