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Asset prices in a production economy with long-run and idiosyncratic risk
Sutóris, Ivan
This paper studies risk premia in an incomplete-markets economy with households facing idiosyncratic consumption risk. If the dispersion of idiosyncratic risk varies over the business cycle and households have a preference for early resolution of uncertainty, asset prices will be affected not only by news about current and expected future aggregate consumption (as in models with a representative agent), but also by news about current and future changes in the cross-sectional distribution of individual consumption. I investigate whether this additional effect can help explain high risk premia in a production economy where the aggregate consumption process is endogenous and thus can potentially be affected by the presence of idiosyncratic risk. Analyzing a neoclassical growth model combined with Epstein-Zin preferences and a tractable form of household heterogeneity, I find that countercyclical idiosyncratic risk increases the risk premium, but also effectively lowers the willingness of households to engage in intertemporal substitution and thus changes the dynamics of aggregate consumption. Nevertheless, with the added flexibility of Epstein-Zin preferences, it is possible both to increase risk premia and to maintain the same dynamics of quantities if we allow for higher intertemporal elasticity of substitution at the individual level.
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Essays on macroeconomic models with heterogeneous agents
Sutóris, Ivan ; Kejak, Michal (advisor) ; Sterk, Vincent (referee) ; Reiter, Michael (referee)
This dissertation consists of three chapters dealing with the topic of heterogeneity in macroeconomics and macroeconomic models. Chapter 1 contributes to the literature on computational approaches to solving DSGE models with heterogeneous agents. One possible approach, a hybrid method described in Reiter (2009) combines a nonlinear solution with respect to individual state variables and a linearized solution with respect to aggregate shocks. Since linearization has typically been used in representative agent models, a natural question is how well it works in a setting with heterogeneity and whether a higher order approximation is not needed. I compare solutions obtained with linearization and second order perturbation for a benchmark stochastic growth model with idiosyncratic labor income shocks. In terms of accuracy, I find that second order solution does not differ much when aggregate volatility is low (e.g. in case of a typical calibration for productivity shocks in developed economies), but becomes more precise when volatility is higher. Another potential issue is that linearization implies certainty equivalence, which makes it unsuitable for analyzing certain issues. I illustrate potential economic applications of the 2nd order solution by showing how it can be used to easily compute welfare...
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Margins of Trade: Czech Firms Before, During and After the Crisis
Galuščák,Kamil ; Sutóris, Ivan
We investigate the extensive and intensive margins of trade of Czech firms in periods before, during and after the crisis of 2008–2009. The intensive margin explains most of the aggregate export growth in 2006–2014, which corroborates previous findings for other countries. The contribution of the extensive margin is smaller, explaining on average 39% of the aggregate export growth in 2006–2007 and around 25% to 30% of that in the post-crisis period. The lower contribution of the extensive margin may signal a lower rate of convergence of the Czech economy. The results indicate that the crisis had a more severe impact on small exporting firms and that exports to countries outside the EU gained more prominence in the post-crisis years. Our results are similar to findings from previous studies on the impact of participation in global value chains on firms’ trade. Specifically, a more negative impact of the crisis was observed for exports with higher import intensity. Overall, our results point to the importance of using disaggregated data in the analysis of countries’ export performance.
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