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Inflation targeting as a monetary policy in the world and Czech Republic: Appraisal of quality of the unconditional forecasts of CNB
Pivoluska, Jakub ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
The aim of the paper is a research of monetary policy based on the concept of inflation targeting in countries including Czech Republic. It systematically monitors the evolution in thinking of policy makers, which led into definition of price stability as the final goal of the monetary policy. It contains a description of transformation of transmission mechanisms in 20th century concluding to inflation targeting mechanisms. The paper defines the main theoretical elements of inflation targeting, surveying some special features of implementation in Czech Republic. The main focus of the paper is assessment of unconditional inflation forecast regularly released by the Czech National Bank. The naive forecast founded on previously known inflation is considered as referential group opposing the CNB forecast. The main conclusion from the analysis is that the CNB has been more successful in long term inflation forecasting than in forecasting of short term changes in inflation dynamics. The analysis did not identify statistically significant deviation of the forecast. This fact was enabled by short term of considerable overshooting of the forecast in 2008. At the same time I have come to conclusion that the CNB forecast is significantly more accurate than naive forecast and that the CNB forecast has an indisputable positive influence on the shape of inflation expectations in the economy.
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Stock Price Bubbles
Li, Xiaokun ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Veselý, Marek (referee)
Economic bubbles are playing an increasingly significant role in the current global economy. We believe these bubbles are to a certain extent dominating the real economy, and, therefore, research based on this specific economic phenomenon is becoming increasingly popular and important. The focus of this master's thesis is based upon analysis of stock price bubbles. This thesis contains author analyzed historical cases representative of stock price bubbles; summarizations of their traditional features; common factors causing their formation; and reasons leading to their bursting. Solutions to the dilemma of stock price bubbles are discussed in depth, and emphasis is placed upon clearly deciphering different theoretical approaches regarding this phenomenon-not only from the efficient market hypothesis viewpoint but also from the perspective of behavioral finance. The research contains testing and measuring methodologies of stock price bubbles, and the author's view concerning them is strongly supported by the results within the empirical data-testing chapter. Upon reading, one can expect to achieve a basic overview of this forefront science.
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Inflation targeting in the Czech Republic
Křikava, Michal ; Kollár, Miroslav (advisor) ; Janíčko, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis is supposed to find answer for monetary policy regime of inflation targeting as a suitable strategy for emerging market country. Opening chapter is focused on introduction of basic characteristics this monetary strategy and previous experiences of targeting countries. Suitability that strategy for emerging market country is tested following experiences of inflation targeting in Czech republic. Selected criteria for comparing are fullfilment inflation targets, progress of inflation level and her volatility. By our gained results and international comparing, we can say the strategy might be succesful in emerging market country.
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Monetary policy of The Czech National Bank between the years 1993 and 2008
Foksová, Eva ; Pichaničová, Ludmila (advisor) ; Maleček, Petr (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the characteristics of monetary policy of The Czech National Bank between the years 1993 and 2008. It describes the contents of monetary policy, its tools and mechanism. It analyses the development of monetary policy of The Czech National Bank, in particular the development of money stock and exchange rate. In the period of transformation of the Czech economy. It deals with reciprocal compatibility of laid out goals, a disharmony of these goals was one of the reasons for moving to new transmission mechanism of inflation targeting. It inquires into impacts of inflation targeting on the real inflation rate. It summarizes the effectivity of monetary policy of The Czech National Bank considering the laid out goals on the basis of found out facts.
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Inflation targeting in central Europe
Halapin, Miroslav ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Brada, Jaroslav (referee)
The diploma thesis focuses on inflation targeting in central Europe. It describes experience of three central European countries (Czech republic, Poland, Hungary) with inflation targeting. First part of thesis deals with theoretical aspects of inflation targeting. Next part brings closer look at application of inflation targeting in above - mentioned countries. Last part of thesis analyzes efficiency of inflation targeting.
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Inflation targeting policy - the experience of Czech Republic
Stoklásková, Martina ; Kuncl, Martin (advisor)
This bachleor thesis deals with the subject of inflation targeting and the experience of using this system in the Czech Republic. First part considers monetary policy in general, its instruments and targets. Following part of the thesis focuses on the principal functions of the inflation targeting system, its basic mechanism and target fixing. The major part is devoted to the situation in the Czech Republic, esencial preconditions for implementation of the system, the method of forecasting, target fixing and reaction of the central bank.
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Econometric analysis of inflation in the Czech Republic
Demeš, Jiří ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Pánková, Václava (referee)
The degree work is focused on analysis of inflation with help of suitable econometric models. Inflation with it's forms and possibilities of measuring is described at the beginning of the paper. There is mentioned an importance of monitoring and analysing inflation in view of Czech national bank. Consequently there are described characteristics of time series, which are important from viewpoint of construction of econometric models. Next part of this paper is focused on characterization of econometrics models. At first there is vector autoregression model, in this connection there is discussed the essence of Granger causality and impulse reaction. There are also noticed both error correction model and vector error correction model. The empirical part of degree work involves the use of these models on selected macroeconomic time series of the Czech republic. The objective is to analyze the relationship between inflation and other individual macroeconomic quantities. There is established the optimal vector autoregressive model and the results of Granger causality and impulse reaction are interpretated. Both error correction model and vector error correction model examining cointegration are also applied.
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Inflation targeting in the Czech Republic and selected countries
Tůma, Petr ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Ryvolová, Ivana (referee)
The Czech National Bank adopted an inflation targeting approach after the change rate turmoil in 1997. It went about a new strategy that was known only in a few developed countries. Monetary policy is being realized by directly targeting on its final object (price stability). I analyze the developments of consumer price index, inflation expectations, prognosis of inflation and other economic values, because I determine, if the inflation targeting is a correct alternative for monetary policy in case of Czech Republic, Slovakia and United Kingdom. I can tell that changeover on inflation targeting has being guaranteed a stable economic setting with a low measure of inflation, but results confirm that. This is important for our entrance into monetary union.
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Efektivnost inflačního cílování v tranzitivních ekonomikách, případ České republiky
Chytilová, Helena ; Sedláček, Petr (advisor) ; Halás, Vladimír (referee)
This paper examines Czech experience with inflation targeting. It tries to assess empirically character of deviations from inflation targets throughout the time. It assess situation also in an international context. Consequently it analyse ability of IT regime to anchor inflation expectations in context of CNB?s forecasting performance. Results imply that although deviations were quite frequent in the Czech Republic, their occurrence has not been a barrier for delivering lower inflation and its lower volatility. Notwithstanding, its volatility remains significantly above the range experienced in the EU and the EMU countries. Regarding the inflation expectations, monetary policy surprises tend to be smaller over time,signalising that IT regime is priced by the markets. Thus, credibility of the CNB, concerning anchoring of inflation expectations, seems to improve after introduction of IT regime. It also indicates that IT regime is a quite appropriate regime for the upcoming period of time, which will be end up by the entry in the EMU.
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