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Macroeconomic policy during the coronavirus epidemic
Kapička, Marek ; Kejak, Michal ; Slavík, Ctirad
This paper summarizes the relevant economic literature to date, combining SIR models and macroeconomic models and discussing the consequences of the pandemic for fiscal and monetary policy. SIR models imply that our fight against the pandemic will only succeed if we are able to achieve a long-term reduction of the reproduction number. Macroeconomic epidemiological models highlight the mutual interaction between the spread of the infection and human economic behaviour. They show that there is a negative relationship between the depth of the economic recession and the rate at which the epidemic spreads. They also reveal that the epidemic creates negative externalities implying that spontaneously limiting activities is an inadequate response. The economic consequences of the pandemic are modelled as a mixture of supply and demand shocks, it is not entirely clear which type of shock will dominate. While the negative supply shock came first, the demand shock may end up dominating because certain sectors are hit harder than others. The macroeconomic literature also points out that the pandemic affects different groups of people to different extents: for example, quarantine measures affect young people and people with lower incomes more than others. The epidemic thus has significant consequences for the redistribution of income and consumption. In brief: governments' primary task is to implement public health measures that can flatten the epidemic's curve sufficiently to ensure that the health crisis connected with the spread of the coronavirus does not exceed the capacity of the given country's health system. These measures will necessarily contribute to worsening the economic crisis. During this stage of the crisis, in which fiscal policy plays an essential role, it is necessary ‚to do whatever it takes' to maintain the majority of the economy in a viable state. Monetary policy will play only a secondary role during this phase. The longer and more serious the health crisis, the worse the economic crisis will be: it may also start to manifest itself in the form of a financial crisis, exchange rate crisis etc., which may then demand more drastic fiscal policy measures and greater coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. This pandemic and the economic crisis it has given rise to are global crises. They cannot therefore be overcome in isolation in one country or another, but demand coordinated efforts from the most developed countries and proper aid for the less developed countries, with the international and supranational institutions (IMF, WB, ECB, EU and others) playing a substantial role.\n
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Collecting personal data for smart COVID-19 tracing: how to motivate people and not scare them off
Jann, Ole
South Korea and Singapore, unlike many other countries, have recorded a slow increase in the number of cases of COVID-19 infection and a relatively low number of fatalities. Both these countries have not only carried out large numbers of tests, but have also used the information gained through them to trace the spread of the infection as quickly as possible, with the help of individual interviews, medical records, mobile phone data, credit card transaction data and CCTV recordings. Those who had come into contact with the chain of infection were then placed into strict quarantine. This substantially limited the spread of the infection and enabled softer restrictive measures to be taken across the remainder of the population, with a lesser impact on the economy. This strategy would now be possible in the Czech Republic, too. It would, however, require specific rules to be adopted, the principles of which are explained in this study. Each country only has one chance to implement them properly. Residents should be offered incentives to motivate them to cooperate by providing true and complete information, but these should not simultaneously provide undesirable motivations. Efforts to force people to provide detailed personalized data for the purpose of contact tracing and tracking the spread of the infection can, in fact, lead people to hide symptoms of illness or to hide the fact that they have recently been in contact with someone. It is thus necessary to find a compromise between the direct effectiveness of an imposed order and its negative side effects. Collecting data for the purposes of tracking the spread of an infection poses a greater problem in Europe than in East Asian countries, because in Europe there is less of a tradition of the local community enforcing the law for itself and there is greater mistrust of the state. Strong data protection is therefore crucial for the tracking strategy to succeed at all. Even a relatively low level of unwillingness among residents to cooperate in providing data, let alone a broader culture of non-cooperation and “cunning avoidance”, would mean the tracking system did not function sufficiently well. Data collected from residents for the purpose of tracking the spread of infection should be stored separate from other personal data in the state’s possession, beyond the reach of enforcement officials, tax investigators, the justice system or researchers, with the exception of those working directly on fighting the infection. The periods during which data are to be collected and retained should be clearly limited. Poorly established incentives for people to reveal personal information for the purposes of tracking the infection open the door to further contagion and result in huge economic damage, harm to people’s health and the loss of human lives.\n
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The New Coronavirus – media and information - Our Society - November 2020
Spurný, Martin
In its special research, The Public Opinion Research Centre focused on the media coverage of the coronavirus crisis and how Czech citizens orientate themselves in information about the new type of coronavirus. Three-fifths (60%) of Czech citizens think that the amount of information on how to protect themselves from coronavirus infection is adequate, about a tenth (11%) of society think that there is little information in this regard, and more than a quarter (27%) of citizens believe that there is even more or too much information.
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Citizens on the effects of the COVID-19 epidemic on their jobs - July 2020
Červenka, Jan
In the July survey, the Public opinion Research Centre asked all respondents a series of questions concerning changes in their employment or business in comparison with the period until the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. Almost half (49%) of economically active people have seen a change in their employment in the form of wearing protective equipment in the workplace, slightly more than a third (34%) have reduced their income and about three tenths have changed their work arrangements to meet fewer colleagues ( 31%), and have a lower number of hours worked (29%).
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