|
|
Why do not central banks target nominal GDP?
Pavlík, Lukáš ; Komrska, Martin (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to explore the question why do not central banks target nominal GDP (NGDP). I find out with comparison of inflation targeting to NGDP targeting that they are different at supply-side shock but same at demand-side shocks. NGDP targeting at positive supply-side shock let the price level decline vice versa. Inflation targeting always tries keep inflation on the target, no matter what the direction of the supply-side shock is. In the case of comparison NGDP targeting to free-banking system I find out accordance in the question of fluctuation of the price level during demand and supply-side shocks. However these systems differ in the nature of structural problems of the economy. NGDP targeting has disadvantage in this area against free-banking system that it can cause bubbles on asset markets by unven increase of money supply and it can neglect real problems of the economy. Central banks and academic economists mostly agree that NGDP targeting is not suitable mainly due to problems with GDP data quality, threat of instable inflation and troubles with estimation of nature rate of output. In the meantime they prefer inflation targeting even though this monetary regime has showed its weaknesses too.
|
|
|
Why central banks target a positive rather than zero inflation?
Horák, Petr ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the reasons why central banks set inflation targets positive and not zero. The central bank has three main reasons for positive target. One results from inaccurate measurement of inflation by CPI, which overstates inflation. Economists don't concur about size of this upper bias, but that is surely significant. Another reason for the positive inflation target may be asymmetric nominal wage rigidity. Again, there is not consensus about existence of wage rigidities, but in this case, possible impact of nominal wage rigidities on the optimum inflation is very limited. The last main reason is the fear of achieving the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates, and thus the inability to stimulate economy by lowering interest rates. Central banks have also less conventional tools of monetary policy, and therefore the fear of achieving the zero lower bound may be exaggerated. The result of economic models is optimum inflation in a range from negative to marginally positive, thus considerably less than usual inflation target.
|
|
|
Explanatory power of inflation forecasts and their effect on the monetary policy of inflation targeting
Frýbová, Kateřina ; Pfeifer, Lukáš (advisor) ; Řežábek, Pavel (referee)
The goal of this work is to prove poor explanatory power of inflation forecasts, which monetary policy regime of inflation targeting depends on. Actual inflation is significantly different from its forecast especially during unstable periods of economic cycle. The paper compares inflation forecasts and actual inflation in the Czech Republic, Switzerland, the United States and Great Britain from 1999 to 2011. Central banks use similar inflation targets and monetary policy regime in selected countries, however there are significant differences among them. The results for all the countries are almost identical despite these local specifics. The explanatory power (especially conditional forecasts) was found to be minimal. This hypothesis is proved by the regression analysis of actual inflation and inflation forecasts.
|
|
|
Inflation targeting in the Czech Republic
Křikava, Michal ; Kollár, Miroslav (advisor) ; Janíčko, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis is supposed to find answer for monetary policy regime of inflation targeting as a suitable strategy for emerging market country. Opening chapter is focused on introduction of basic characteristics this monetary strategy and previous experiences of targeting countries. Suitability that strategy for emerging market country is tested following experiences of inflation targeting in Czech republic. Selected criteria for comparing are fullfilment inflation targets, progress of inflation level and her volatility. By our gained results and international comparing, we can say the strategy might be succesful in emerging market country.
|
|
|
Evolution and analysis of inflation in Czech republic during years 1993 - 2006
Spálovský, Mojmír ; Burgerová, Jiřina (advisor) ; Nováček, Jan (referee)
Práce se zabývá inflací v letech 1993-2006 v České Republice. Popisuje jednotlivé roky a zaměřuje se na kroky centrální banky. V teoretické části je popsána inflace, její vznik, faktory a měření. Dále jsou zde zmíněny režimy měnové politiky, jejich výhody a nevýhody a charakterizována výchozí situace na počátku devadesátých let v ČR. Cílem práce je popsat vývoj inflace ve zvoleném období a zhodnotit kroky České národní banky při provádění měnové politiky a jejich dopad na ekonomiku a subjekty na trhu.
|
|
|
Inflation targeting in the Czech Republic and selected countries
Tůma, Petr ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Ryvolová, Ivana (referee)
The Czech National Bank adopted an inflation targeting approach after the change rate turmoil in 1997. It went about a new strategy that was known only in a few developed countries. Monetary policy is being realized by directly targeting on its final object (price stability). I analyze the developments of consumer price index, inflation expectations, prognosis of inflation and other economic values, because I determine, if the inflation targeting is a correct alternative for monetary policy in case of Czech Republic, Slovakia and United Kingdom. I can tell that changeover on inflation targeting has being guaranteed a stable economic setting with a low measure of inflation, but results confirm that. This is important for our entrance into monetary union.
|
guest ::
