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Parametric estimation of GARCH model using MATLAB
Dúbravský, Martin ; Tran, Van Quang (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Timely invariant variance is known not to be stylized fact of financial returns data. Motive of this bachelor thesis is to study financial data's typical variability of variance. In theoretical part, assumtions of GARCH models and its extensions, are summarized. GARCH family models' parameters are estimated, using maximum likelihood are estimated in empirical part. These models are estimated and evaluated across five assets, in which stock indicies DAX and SAP 500, FX major EURUSD and commodities natural gas and gold, are represented. In order to make assumptions about robabilistic distribution of data more realistic, not only Gaussian distribution, but also more leptokurtic Student's t-distribution is assumed to be present in data. Estimations are executed using software package MATLAB and EViews environment. For each asset, the best one of estimated GARCH models will be selected. Results suggest, that assumption of leptokurtic distribution generates models that describe volatility of studied assets better. Regarding testing for assymetric effects in volatility and estimation of EGARCH models, leverage effect of financial returns is shown to be present in returns of studied assets.
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Consumption, price expectations and deflatively-recessive spiral
Plný, Petr ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Tran, Van Quang (referee)
This thesis examines the relationship between price expectations and current consumption. Especially, whether the postponement of final consumption expenditure by households, as a result of their declining price expectations; which may be a deflatively-recessive spiral starter; coincides with economic theory and practice. Based on this, appropriate economic policy recommendations can be drawn. The analysis in the framework of intertemporal consumer model of two periods extended by inflation and the risk confirms this hypothesis. Price expectations positively affect current consumption through the intertemporal substitution effect of real interest rate changes. However, certain assumptions must be fulfilled. Especially, the economy must be in a fixed nominal interest rate environment, the substitution effect must not be offset by the effect of a change in the expected real disposable income or the income effect of the change in the real interest rate and the households must have a higher disposable income so that they can afford to postpone consumption. These findings coincide with the conclusions of the empirical analyzes mentioned in this thesis.
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Evaluation of predictive ability of selected exchange rate models based on statistical methods
Sommer, Josef ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Tran, Van Quang (referee)
This diploma thesis evaluates out-of-sample predictive ability of exchange rate models. The first part of the thesis summarizes existing empirical findings about exchange rate predictability and describes exchange rate models chosen to be evaluated. The second part of the thesis evaluates predictive ability of purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity, monetary model and Taylor rule model. The exchange rate models are evaluated on CZK/EUR and CZK/USD currency pairs. The analysis is made using quarterly data from 1999 to 2013, while 2009 to 2013 period is reserved for forecast evaluation. The predictive ability of exchange rate models is evaluated in one quarter, one year and three years horizons. The exchange rate models are specified in first differences and estimated by ordinary least squares method. The forecasts are made using rolling regression. The exchange rate models are evaluated using RMSE, Theil's U, CW test and direction of change criterion. The diploma thesis concludes with description of own empirical findings.
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Analýza vztahu kvality bilančních aktiv centrální banky a účinnosti monetární politiky
Lekishvili, Salome ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Tran, Van Quang (referee)
The diploma thesis deals with the issue of financial performance of central banks. Central banking is generally considered as a profitable part of financial system. However, this paper focuses on the loss-making central banks and emphasizes the examples of central banks with large accumulated financial losses. Relationship between the quality of balance sheet assets and financial performance of central banks is closely examined in the thesis. Alongside, it analyses the impact of negative financial performance on the main objectives of central bank, in the role of monetary authority. Effectiveness of monetary policy is conditioned by many factors, among them are independence of central bank, the level of development of financial markets - central bank operates in, analytical skills of employees and etc. However, the case, where financial performance of central bank is discussed in connection with monetary policy performance, is extremely rare. The primary goal of this diploma thesis is to reveal and describe the main ways in which financial performance of the central bank influences monetary policy decisions. It also tries to find out whether there is hidden threat of a damaging impact on the decisions in case the central bank accumulates the negative financial results.
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Export and Import functions (Empirical analysis on the example of the Czech Republic)
Obešlo, František ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Tran, Van Quang (referee)
This work focuses on import and export of goods of the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic is very open country in European Union. Ratio of import and export of goods and services to GDP is above European Union average. The goal is to find explaining variables, which has an influence on import and export of goods and to create robust and economically interpretable models. Models are created by cointegration analysis. The advantage of cointegration analysis and error correction models is avoiding spurious regression and differentiation of short-term and long-term relations. There will be used two attitudes for creation of models: with help of ADL models and Johansen method, which serve to comparison of results. There is a space for test of influence of exchange rate shocks on import and export of goods in the end.
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Testing for the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis on the Czech stock market by linear and nonlinear methods
Tran, Van Quang ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Arlt, Josef (referee) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
Hypotéza efektivního trhu postuluje, že ceny akcií na efektivním trhu reflektují všechny informace a jsou dobrými odhady jejich hodnot. Platnost této hypotézy byla testována na řadách denních a hodinových výnosností indexu PX a dalších 3 nejlikvidnějších titulů na českém akciovém trhu lineárními a nelineárními metodami. Ověřovaly se také přítomnost deterministického chaosu v těchto řadách a možnost predikovat výnosnosti různými ekonometrickými modely. Bylo zjištěno, že výnosnosti nejsou nezávislé a lze je predikovat zvolenými modely přesněji než modelem náhodné procházky. Přítomnost chaosu nelze jednoznačně prokázat. Přes tato zjištění se však český akciový trh nechová neefektivně.
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