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The impact of CNB's exchange rate commitment on Czech exports
Teichman, Jiří ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis evaluates the effect of Czech National Bank's exchange rate commit- ment on Czech sectoral exports. Thus, we show how unconventional monetary policies could affect the exports. To assess the impact of interventions, we use Synthetic Control Method. The method constructs synthetic Czech exports from data of comparable countries that were not under the policy of inter- est and compares them to observed Czech exports following the interventions. We expect a positive effect of Czech National Bank's commitment on Czech exports, because the interventions resulted in the undervaluation of koruna causing a higher demand for Czech goods abroad. Additionally, the exporters should benefit from reduced uncertainty caused by no exchange rate volatility with the euro area. The results showed a positive impact of interventions only in half of the export sectors. The positive effect of a stable exchange rate is not confirmed, because the effect on the euro area countries in some categories was smaller than for the other countries. The results for total sectoral exports were stable across model specifications and confirmed by analysis of Czech bi- lateral sectoral exports to the largest destinations. The significant contribution of this thesis is application of Synthetic Control Method on total sectoral...
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Drivers of financial de-dollarisation in CCA region.
Zviadadze, Ana ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a number of post-soviet countries are facing a high level of financial dollarisation. This thesis aims to estimate the determinants of both deposit and loan de-dollarisation using panel vector autoregression model. The study covers five countries of Caucasus and Central Asia region within the time frame of 2006:1 to 2017:1. Our findings suggest that deposit de-dollarisation is driven by exchange rate depreciation. On the other hand, a decrease in deposit dollarisation contributes to loan de-dollarisation. We also find out that effective policies toward macroeconomic stability with the development of the financial system can help to a decrease financial dollarisation level. Keywords CCA region, Financial dollarisation, Panel Vector Autoregression. Author's e-mail azviadadze@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jaromir.baxa@fsv.cuni.cz
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The ECB, Austerity and the Fiscal Multiplier: A meta-regression analysis of Fiscal Multiplier Estimates in ECB Policy Recommendations
Brüsewitz, Caspar Gerbrandt ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The primary aim of this thesis is to examine whether the policy recommendations made by the European Central Bank in response to the financial crisis of 2008 were biased towards fiscal consolidation. It posits that such policies, commonly known as austerity, were underpinned by estimates of the fiscal multiplier that were lower than those of international and independent researchers. To analyse this, it provides a systematic overview of the ECB's fiscal multiplier estimates by performing a meta-regression analysis on all ECB working papers making multiplier estimates published between 1992 and 2012, and comparing the results against those of a larger dataset containing multiplier estimates made. It finds that the multiplier estimates of the ECB are significantly lower than the norm, which is potentially suggestive of bias. This thesis contributes to the literature on ideational bias in economic policy-making by providing a systematic literature review that helps inform the discussion on austerity in the EU. It also servers as a replication and expansion of previous meta-regression studies on the fiscal multiplier, by being the first study that specifically examines the estimates of a specific institution.
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Impact of Potential EU Membership on Economy of Ukraine
Jascuk, Milana ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Recently the topic of the future of Ukrainian economy has been attracting great attention among economists and politicians. The way how it should develop is widely discussed on the international arena. Economists and politicians cannot reach an agreement to which direction it is better to move for Ukraine. Nowadays a lot of special institutions have been created on both sides: in Ukraine and in Europe. The main goal of those is to control all the processes of transformation to be transparent on all levels; as well as prevent unlikely events. Of course, there are proponents and opponents of the moving to the free trade with the EU as for every global process. Among the young generation it is very clear, that possibilities, which gives us European Union are much more valuable and gainful. Even now, majority of students and researchers seek to apply or acquire some knowledge in European countries. I'm not an exception and for this reason, being a representative of young generation, I will try to determine potential impact on Economy of Ukraine assuming integration to European Union. It is very important to consider both threats and benefits of such processes as they are taking place on very high level. Therefore, in this work it will be considered both contours of development for Economy of Ukraine....
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Electronic Records of Sales and Their Implementation in the Czech Republic
Mach, Petr ; Chytilová, Julie (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The subject of this thesis is electronic records (EET) of sales and its implementation in the Czech Republic. Because one of the main goals is to improve tax collection the first part of the theoretical section of the thesis is devoted to a brief introduction to taxes and specifically the value-added tax. The second part of the theoretical section is describing the specifics of the Czech version of electronic records of sales. First, a few models of records of sales are described and which of them was chosen and why. Then this model is described in detail, including who has to abide by it, what sales they have to record and some of the technical aspects of the system. A part is also dedicated to the associated receipt lottery and the end of the theoretical section is devoted to similar systems of electronic evidence of sales and their impacts in other countries. The practical section of the thesis is devoted to answering the question if the introduction of electronic records of sales in the Czech Republic was justified, based on fulfillment of its initial goals. The main goals were to increase the tax revenue and lowering the size of the shadow economy. In order to verify the estimate of increase in VAT revenue due to introduction of EET, calculated by the Ministry of Finance, I calculate my own...
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The impact of human capital and population age structure on economic growth
Topinka, Michal ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
The demographic transition led to an added productivity commonly referred to as the demographic divided, which resulted in high rates of economic growth in most of the world. The general consensus is that the increased pace of economic growth was attained largely thanks to changes in population age structure. However, the literature contains evidence that the population structure does not have a significant impact on economic growth and that improvements in education attainment have in fact been responsible for the high rates of economic growth. These claims are in contradiction with most of the literature and can have important implications for future research and policy making. Since these claims have not been, to the best of our knowledge, verified, this thesis aims to replicate the original research using newer and more suitable data for a higher number of countries. In addition to the original research, analysis is also performed on various subsamples based on governance and cultural indicators. The level and the change in education attainment did not appear statistically significant in most of the regressions, so the claims could not be proved or disproved. However, important insights about the role of not only population structure and labor force participation in explaining economic growth were...
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Conventional vs. Shariah stock indices: Volatility, Financial Contagion, Interest Rate Risk and Gold as Safe Haven
Hashmi, Osaid ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis aims at the comparison of volatility between conventional stock indices and their Shariah counterparts. We study the time-varying volatility and correlation of both categories using GARCH models, during Global Financial Crisis and afterwards, from January 2008 to March 2017. We analyze the Global stock indices drilling down into their Developed and Emerging market segments, and study the U.S. market; considering U.S. as the origin of the crisis. Extending traditional approach, we study difference of time-varying volatility between conventional and Shariah indices, and thoroughly study its dynamic development during the study period. Employing DCC-GARCH, we investigate the financial contagion within markets and find Shariah indices to be significantly affected by it. We find Shariah stocks to be less risky and a diversification opportunity during crisis, but based on market; unlike other markets, Shariah stocks are more volatile in Emerging markets. We also examine correlations of stock indices with interest rates and analyze the role of gold as a safe-haven for Shariah investors. We observe Shariah indices to be having correlation with interest rates similar to that of conventional indices, hence exposed to interest rate risk. Finally, we find that gold is less correlated to Shariah...
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Monetary Policy and Stock Market Returns: Does the ZLB make a difference?
Hysa, Emiljano ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Schwarz, Jiří (referee)
This thesis provides analyses of the impact of monetary policy on stock market returns under the zero lower bound. Using a VAR model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, it aims to verify and reconfirm the relevance of monetary policy for stock market returns. This investigation has been carried out on the cases of the U.S., the E.U., and the U.K. When the interest rate is being constrained by the zero lower bound, the interest rate is approximated by the shadow interest rate in the spirit of Kippner or Wu-Xia. The findings can be summarized in three main points. Firstly, it is shown that stock markets react positively to negative shock into shadow interest rate, so the central banks were able to affect asset prices even after the interest rates hit the zero lower bound. Secondly, the impulse response functions suggest that even though the monetary policy is able to affect asset prices, it does so by being less effective. Thirdly, the analyses revealed the cross-country differences in each of the cases, as the monetary policy impact changes across samples both in terms of efficacy and magnitude.
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Essays on monetary policy transmission
Rusnák, Marek ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee) ; Pugh, Geoff (referee) ; Belke, Ansgar (referee)
The dissertation consists of three papers presenting applications of meta-analysis in macroeconomics and two papers dealing with real-time data properties and forecasting. The first two papers examine the effect of monetary policy on price level, while the third paper investigates the habit formation in consumption. Fourth paper presents a model to nowcast Czech GDP in real time, while the last paper looks at the properties of data revisions to Czech national accounts.
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Inflation Targeting Turns Ten in Georgia: Assessment of the Experience
Megrelishvili, Ketevan ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
The paper evaluates transition of the monetary policy in Georgia to inflation targeting and the record of the first years of experience with this policy. The inflation targeting was officially announced in 2009; nevertheless, the National bank of Georgia ("NBG") was investigating and planning the transition since 2006. The NBG implemented new instrument the monetary rate - as a precondition for switching to the inflation targeting. The NBG has also improved the independence and transparency following its introduction. Then, we assess the success of the policy change by investigating the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism using vector auto-regression models with alternative identification schemes, in particular, the Cholesky decomposition and sign restrictions approach. Our findings suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism works primarily via the Tbilisi interbank rate while the effects of changes in the newly implemented monetary policy rate are bit weaker. The maximum price decrease is achieved after about 15-17 months and it somewhat coincides with the NBG's horizon (4-6 quarters). We have further established that the monetary policy supports the financial stability to a certain extent. JEL Classification E4, E52, P2 Keywords Inflation targeting, Monetary Transmission...
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